ALERT - Mass Migration Event – Caravan 45 (Day 1: 12JAN25)
Background: This is an alert to report a mass migration event regarding the formation of Caravan No. 45, that began forward movement on or about Sunday, January 12, 2025, comprised of at approximately several hundred (500) migrants that departed Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico with the intention of reaching the U.S. border at an undisclosed crossing point. ???
This is the 45th caravan that has been detected through open sources and tracked by the U.S.-Mexico Center of the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, Houston since we began tracking the migrant mass movement phenomenon in 2017. Of particular interest to our continuing analysis and reporting is whether migrant caravan organizers, including individuals, charity organizations or non-profit organizations, are forming caravans as a result of impending or actual U.S. government immigration policy changes or if the cartels are forming caravans for their own operational purposes, or any other purpose.
Critical Facts[i]
Caravan Name(s): “Exodo Trump”? (“Trump’s Exodus”)
Date of Departure: January 12, 2025
Destination: Caravan 45 is expected to march to Mexico City, first to apply for asylum on the CBP One App, then proceed to an unknown crossing at Mexico-U.S. Border.
Place of Departure: Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico (Mexico-Guatemala Border)
Number of Migrant Marchers: 500 at onset
Demographics: Men, women with infants and children, family groups
Nationalities: Panama, Ecuador, Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, Honduras, Salvador, Guatemala, Haití.?
Unofficial Spokesperson: Luis Rey García Villagrán, Centro de Dignificación Humana (CDH).
Pull Factors: Impending &perceived immigration policy change after the U.S. election.
Push Factors: Unemployment, insecurity, violence.
Traction (Day 1 / 13JAN25):
领英推荐
Caravan 45 (C45) is the third migrant caravan that has taken foot from Tapachula in 2015. C45 is comprised of approximately 500 marchers and departed Tapachula on Sunday, January 12, 2025.
Several hundred migrants in C45 started their march in San Pedro de Sula, Honduras on January 7, 2025 and joined the larger group that formed and departed Tapachula on January 12, 2025.
Policy Implications: On January 2, 2025, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum proposed that Ministers of Exterior (Secretaries of State) meet to discuss the challenges to migration, especially its causes, before Donald Trump takes office, adding that she would wait to meet with Trump after his inauguration.[ii] ?
Updates: This alert will be amended if, or as, the Caravan gains traction and information becomes available.
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[i] éXODO 2025 Parte nueva caravana de migrantes previo a la investidura de Trump; "por cada deportado, entrarán ?10 a Estados Unidos", advierten.
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[ii] Sheinbaum anuncia reunión de cancilleres de LATAM; atenderán fenómeno migratorio.
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