ALERT - Mass Migration Event – Caravan 44 (Day 1: 02JAN25)
Background: This is an alert to report a mass migration event regarding the formation of Caravan No. 44, that began forward movement on or about Thursday, January 2, 2025, comprised of at approximately several hundred (200) migrants that departed Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico with the intention of reaching the U.S. border at an undisclosed crossing point. ???
This is the 44th caravan that has been detected through open sources and tracked by the U.S.-Mexico Center of the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, Houston since we began tracking the migrant mass movement phenomenon in 2017. Of particular interest to our continuing analysis and reporting is whether migrant caravan organizers, including individuals, charity organizations or non-profit organizations, are forming caravans as a result of impending or actual U.S. government immigration policy changes or if the cartels are forming caravans for their own operational purposes, or any other purpose.
Critical Facts[i]
Caravan Name(s): None reported
Date of Departure: January 2, 2025
Destination: Caravan 44 is expected to also make their first major milestone stop Oaxaca state where they expect to be routed by Mexican immigration officials. If they are allowed to continue, they will march to Mexico City, first to apply for asylum on the CBP One App, then proceed to an unknown crossing at Mexico-U.S. Border.
Place of Departure: Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico (Mexico-Guatemala Border)
Number of Migrant Marchers: 200 at onset
Demographics: Men, women with infants and children, family groups
Nationalities: Venezuela, Guatemala, El Salvador, Peru, and Ecuador.?
Pull Factors: Impending &perceived immigration policy change after the U.S. election.
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Push Factors: Unemployment, Food insecurity.
Traction (Day 1 / 02JAN25):
Caravan 44 (C44) is comprised of approximately 200 marchers and departed Tapachula on Thursday, January 2, 2025.
Updates: This alert will be amended if, or as, the Caravan gains traction and information becomes available.
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[i] A small caravan of migrants sets out from southern Mexico but is unlikely to reach the US
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