ALERT - Mass Migration Event – Caravan 41 Traction (Day 3: 04DEC24)
Background: This is an alert to report a mass migration event regarding the formation of Caravan No. 41, that began forward movement on or about Monday, December 2, 2024, comprised of at least two thousand (2,000) migrants that departed Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico with the intention of reaching the U.S. border at an undisclosed crossing point. ???
This is the 41st caravan that has been detected through open sources and tracked by the U.S.-Mexico Center of the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, Houston since we began tracking the migrant mass movement phenomenon in 2017. Of particular interest to our continuing analysis and reporting is whether migrant caravan organizers, including individuals, charity organizations or non-profit organizations, are forming caravans as a result of impending or actual U.S. government immigration policy changes or if the cartels are forming caravans for their own operational purposes, or any other purpose.
Critical Facts[i]:
Caravan Name(s): None Reported
Date of Departure: December 2, 2024
Destination: Caravan 41 is expected to also make their first destination as Mexico City, Mexico, first to apply for asylum on the CBP One App in Mexico City or northern Mexico, then proceed to an unknown crossing at Mexico-U.S. Border.
Place of Departure: Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico (Mexico-Guatemala Border)
Number of Migrant Marchers: 2,000 at onset
Demographics: Men (at least 1,000), women (at least 400) with infants and children (at least 200), family groups
Nationalities: Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Colombia and Central Americans, not further identified.
Sponsors: Unknown.
Unofficial Entity or Spokesperson: Noe identified
Pull Factors: Impending & perceived immigration policy change after the U.S. election.
Push Factors: Insecurity at Tapachula, lack of employment in countries of origin.
Traction (Day 3 / 04DEC24):
Caravan 41 (C41) is comprised of approximately 2,000 marchers that traveled from Tapachula to Huehuetán, walking approximately 26 kilometers in the first 10 hours.
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Once they arrived in Huehuetán, C41 broke into two vectors:
C41A continued forward to Huixtla.
C41B remained at rest at a municipal park in the center of Huehuetán.
As they make their way to Mexico city, the next intended waypoint destination for vectors C41A and C41B is Escuintla, a distance of approximately 74 kilometers north of Tapachula.
Policy Implications:
As two new Presidents for Mexico and U.S have been elected in 2024, migrant caravans have become emblematic of the struggle to contain migration through Mexico and into the U.S.
The optics generated from media reports and photos showing thousands of men, women and children walking north in organized migrant caravans have become the genesis of president-elect Donald Trump’s threats to deport millions of migrants already in the U.S. illegally, starting with known criminals, all while working with Mexico to stop additional waves of migrants from arriving at the northern Mexican border.
At the onset of C41, it appeared as if Mexico had stopped the forward movement of two caravans, but neither Mexico’s enforcement of immigration laws or Trump’s threats of tariffs, have deterred others from organizing a caravan and making the attempt to reach Mexico City, the location of which many are able to apply for asylum with the CBPOne application.
On December 12, 2024, Caravan 42, comprised of over 2,000 migrants, departed Tapachula, Chiapas en route Mexico City. A separate report will be issued for Caravan 42.
Updates: This alert will be amended if, or as, the Caravan gains traction and information becomes available.
[i] Caravana migrante alista salida para iniciar andadura desde la frontera sur de México.
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