ALERT - Mass Migration Event – Caravan 41 (Day 1: 02DEC24)

Background: This is an alert to report a mass migration event regarding the formation of Caravan No. 41, that began forward movement on or about Monday, December 2, 2024, comprised of at least two thousand (2,000) migrants that departed Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico with the intention of reaching the U.S. border at an undisclosed crossing point. ???

This is the 41st caravan that has been detected through open sources and tracked by the U.S.-Mexico Center of the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, Houston since we began tracking the migrant mass movement phenomenon in 2017. Of particular interest to our continuing analysis and reporting is whether migrant caravan organizers, including individuals, charity organizations or non-profit organizations, are forming caravans as a result of impending or actual U.S. government immigration policy changes or if the cartels are forming caravans for their own operational purposes, or any other purpose.

Critical Facts[i]:

Caravan Name(s): None Reported

Date of Departure: December 2, 2024

Destination: Caravan 41 is expected to also make their first destination as Mexico City, Mexico, first to apply for asylum on the CBP One App in Mexico City or northern Mexico, then proceed to an unknown crossing at Mexico-U.S. Border.

Place of Departure: Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico (Mexico-Guatemala Border)

Number of Migrant Marchers: 2,000 at onset

Demographics: Men (at least 1,000), women (at least 400) with infants and children (at least 200), family groups

Nationalities: Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua, República Dominicana, Colombia and Central Americans, not further identified.

Sponsors: Unknown.

Unofficial Entity or Spokesperson: None identified

Pull Factors: Impending &perceived immigration policy change after the U.S. election.

Push Factors: Insecurity at Tapachula, lack of employment in countries of origin.

Traction (Day 1 / 02DEC24):

Caravan 41 (C41) is comprised of approximately 2,000 marchers. Migrants interviewed stated that they decided to leave Tapachula due to a lack of local security, crowding in the city from the constant arrival of other migrants, lack of shelter, lack of support from Mexican authorities, and desperation for reaching a destination where they can obtain employment.

Policy Implications:

On Wednesday, November 27th, President-elect Donald Trump stated on social media that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum had agreed to stop unauthorized migration through Mexico and across the border into the United States.

In response, Sheinbaum wrote on social media that “… in accordance with respect to human rights, migrants and caravans are attended to before they arrive at the border."

Sheinbaum’s respect for human rights of migrants is juxtaposed against later reports on Saturday, November 30, 2024, when she allegedly directed federal immigration authorities to dissolve two small migrant caravans that were marching towards the U.S. border.

Luis García Villagrán, a migrant activist, stated that the dissolution of the two migrant caravans mentioned appeared to be part of “an Agreement between the President of Mexico and the President of the Unites States (President-elect) Donald Trump.”

While this may appear to be “Policy by Tariff Threat,” in the Donald Trump world, it was responded to with a “Policy by Sleight of Hand” in the Sheinbaum world, the latter claiming immediate, but feigned. compliance.

Voir Dire International will be issuing a separate report that analyzes Mexico’s response to Donald Trump’s tariff threats, as applied to the immigration policy space.

Updates: This alert will be amended if, or as, the Caravan gains traction and information becomes available.

[i] Caravana migrante alista salida para iniciar andadura desde la frontera sur de México.

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https://efe.com/mundo/2024-12-01/caravana-migrantes-mexico/

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