Alert: Data & Religion can have incorrect interpretation

Stats and religion often depend on the person who is interpreting it, militants and saints are created from the same. I have written few posts in the past about the covid data, some more pointers

Data showing positive, which may not be

1. India's recovery rate is going up - Recovery time for covid 14 to 28 days, now we are close to 8 months, so with time passing recovery rate will merge to 98% as that's the recovery rate, when the total number reaches large and 14 days data looks small comparatively, % will merge with 98%
2. Infection per million is lower compare to many countries: This should be looked along with the health care support of each country as well, also another data could be that India contributes 40% of all active cases in the world when India is 1 in 6 person in the world, all is certainly not that well
3. Death rate is lower - The overall counting is very different in different countries, state to state it differs as well, also who is getting tested in different countries, as in many countries people without serious problems are asked to stay home, some of my friends in the UK was getting treated on phone than going to hospital even when he couldn't eat or breath, he was getting support from gov but under a different phone number, no test was done either. Also the rural vs urban ratio has changed too, the below image shows
4. More testing is leading to more numbers - hmm, may be no, our test to positive ratio has increased from 4% to close to 8%

& the list goes on, the below image can show a very good picture on what we can expect

My take is

1. In a month or two it will peak to the highest numbers across all the locations and then because of less carriers the spread will go down, so next 2 months will be more critical
2. Doctors know about this disease a lot better now, which is very positive
3. Social Distancing, Masks are important to keep the viral load low, viral load and intensity of the disease has some correlation
4. It can spread via air, so distance a little more, act better

The overall interest on covid stats has gone down too (see the website visit for covid19India.org), Summary; Don't get over-excited or over depressed with the data, do the best you can do. Data is real, data interpretation can be manipulative, so love data not just data interpretation.