ALERT - Caravan 44 Traction Update (Day 2: 03JAN25)
Background: This is an alert to report a mass migration event regarding the formation of Caravan No. 44, that began forward movement on or about Thursday, January 2, 2025, comprised of at approximately one thousand five hundred to two thousand (1,500-2,000) migrants that departed Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico with the intention of reaching the U.S. border at an undisclosed crossing point. ???
This is the 44th caravan that has been detected through open sources and tracked by the U.S.-Mexico Center of the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, Houston since we began tracking the migrant mass movement phenomenon in 2017. Of particular interest to our continuing analysis and reporting is whether migrant caravan organizers, including individuals, charity organizations or non-profit organizations, are forming caravans as a result of impending or actual U.S. government immigration policy changes or if the cartels are forming caravans for their own operational purposes, or any other purpose.
Critical Facts[i]
Caravan Name(s): None reported
Date of Departure: January 2, 2025
Destination: Caravan 44 is expected to also make their first major milestone stop Oaxaca state where they expect to be routed by Mexican immigration officials. If they are allowed to continue, they will march to Mexico City, first to apply for asylum on the CBP One App, then proceed to an unknown crossing at Mexico-U.S. Border.
Place of Departure: Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico (Mexico-Guatemala Border)
Number of Migrant Marchers: 1,500-2,000 at onset[ii]
Demographics: Men, women with infants and children, family groups
Nationalities: Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Venezuela, Peru, and Ecuador.?
Unofficial Entity or Spokesperson: Luis García Villagrán, , Centro por la Dignificación Humana
Pull Factors: Impending &perceived immigration policy change after the U.S. election.
Push Factors: Unemployment, Food insecurity.
Traction (Day 2 / 03JAN25):
Caravan 44 (C44) is amended to add to the number of marchers that departed Tapachula on Thursday, January 2, 2025, from 200 to an estimated 1,500-2,000. C44 traveled to Huehuetán, Chiapas in the first 24 hours and intends to make Juchitán, Oaxaca their next waypoint.
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C44 reportedly stopped in Huixtla, Chiapas during the second day of marching.
Policy Implications: The Government of Mexico (GOM) has reinforced northern border hotspots like Piedras Negras with additional troops and immigration authorities that are tracking and following migrants and caravans along migrant routes throughout Mexico, the marchers of which are seeking new routes to the border.
Shelter operators on the northern border of Mexico stated that migrant caravans “are expressing their intent to proceed to Piedras Negras, Nuevo Laredo and Ciudad Juarez.” It is unclear which migrant caravan iterations are headed to these border cities.)
Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum stated that the GOM has begun preparations for the repatriation of Mexican citizens that may be deported from the U.S.. during the new Trump administration and she has asked that the U.S. send deported migrants from other countries, or third party migrants, to their countries of origin. More Migrant Caravans Assembling
Updates: This alert will be amended if, or as, the Caravan gains traction and information becomes available.
[i] A small caravan of migrants sets out from southern Mexico but is unlikely to reach the US
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[ii] Sale otra caravana de migrantes del sur de México pese a la disolución de las anteriores
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