An Alarming “Check Engine” Light for Electric Vehicles

Americans are giving the green light to electric vehicles (EVs). According to the most recent data from Cox Automotive, EV sales grew by 11.3% last year. Sales data, however, are a lag indicator. It’s like looking in the rearview mirror: easy to see the past, but not very useful in predicting what’s coming down the road.

Momentum plays a big role in systemic change and, despite the hundreds of billions of dollars invested in the EV revolution, the Inflation Reduction Act rebates, and the watershed commitments of automakers, EV momentum is waning. The growing reluctance among the next wave of EV buyers is emitting a “check engine” light. ??

?To measure public sentiment about critical sustainability purchases, Rare launched the Climate Culture Index three years ago so that we could track changes over time. In our latest running of the Index, American’s intending to drive an EV dipped alarmingly from 36% in 2021 to under 30% in 2024. We saw an even bigger drop in the percentage of American’s considering driving an EV: from 50% in 2021 to 37% in 2024. Given the growing commitment of auto manufacturers to producing EVs and the billions of dollars in incentives offered by the historic Inflation Reduction Act, we had expected these indices to rise.

So, what’s going on? It’s not hard to speculate. Perhaps progressives are increasingly turned off by Elon Musk’s erratic tweets and support for conservative politicians. Perhaps the early wave of EV drivers is dissatisfied with their public charging experiences. Insights from behavioral science and data from the climate Culture Index also offer a few clues.

Three key insights from behavioral science are helpful in the case of EVs and other greenhouse gas reducing consumer technologies. First, we know that people tend to adopt new technologies when they see other people adopting them.??Second, people tend to change when they believe others expect them to change. Third, people tend to change more quickly when they perceive people around them are changing quickly too. From an evolutionary standpoint, let’s just say it’s always been in our best interest not to stray too far from the tribe. ??

Gauging how Americans perceive the attitudes of their friends, family, neighbors, and co-workers toward new technologies like EVs is as important – sometimes more important – than how they perceive the EVs themselves.???

The most recent index highlighted a 15-percentage point gap between what respondents expected of others and what they thought others expected of them. This “normative bubble” is a big deal, and it illustrates how many Americans don’t realize there is a growing social expectation that we will someday all be driving EVs. Popping this bubble by making driving EVs the social norm,?would make it more likely for people to adopt them.??

Another way of thinking about U.S. EV adoption is to consider where it is on the adoption curve. The “early adopters”—the most vociferous proponents of new technologies that make up about 3.5% of the market—are now on board. But to achieve widespread adoption, we need that next wave of adoption from the early majority. Our research suggests this has yet to happen.

It’s troubling that EVs may be stalling out with the early majority. It’s also surprising. After all, the economic incentives are in place. The array of EV models, brands, and price points is expanding rapidly. Charging infrastructure is spreading, though maybe not fast enough.

This may be another example of a common phenomenon with big policy wins inside the Beltway: a failure to recognize that humans are not homo economicus, that we are not only motivated by money, and that technology adoption takes place in a social and cultural context.??

Getting the EV revolution back on track will require some new and creative ways of normalizing this new technology, and making EV purchases easy, appealing, and popular. ?One organization doing its part is Acterra, a California-based organization promoting electrification in transportation. Their “ride and drive” events invite community “EV Ambassadors” to share their experiences with potential buyers. Messengers matter. Trials build confidence and help spread word of mouth. ?

The data shows that we expect more of each other than we let on. While we’re debating EV sales data, we should also be asking consumers not only what they intend to do, but, perhaps more importantly, what they believe others expect them to do.