Alarm bells, soul-crushing gridlock and a frigid, rainy night in Foxboro

The global insurance industry is writing a new chapter in 2024, with non-life premiums poised for their fastest growth in a decade, hitting 4.3%, according to Swiss Re analysts. Yet, the excitement is tempered by projections of slower annual growth — 2.3% in 2025-26 — as rates stabilize following years of risk repricing and elevated claims.

"A more fragile overall economic environment and volatile geopolitical backdrop raises risks of adverse macro scenarios," Swiss Re's Jér?me Jean Haegeli said in the report. "Early and proactive scenario monitoring will be critical for the insurance industry."

Indeed, the outlook isn’t without hurdles. Rising natural catastrophe losses, social inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties loom large, threatening to delay the softening of property insurance rates and keeping insurers vigilant. Even as profitability improves — industry ROE is expected to climb to 9% in 2024 — adapting to these risks will be critical.

Speaking of risks... got your fix of doomsday predictions yet? If not, the Paragon Rider is here for you. A new study in Nature Climate Change sees a one meter sea level rise by 2100 affecting over 14 million people and $1 trillion in property along the Southeast Atlantic coast. The scale of interconnected hazards, such as sea level rise, flooding, beach erosion, rising groundwater, etc., is much greater than anticipated, Virginia Tech' Manoochehr Shirzaei, co-author of the report, warned. “The risk of flooding, compounded by sinking land and beach loss, could displace millions and damage critical infrastructure unless robust adaptation strategies are implemented,” he added. “We need to rethink how we plan and build for the future, especially in highly vulnerable coastal regions."

So, yes, alarm bells are ringing across the globe. Take wind speeds, as yet another example. They have intensified by an average of 18 miles per hour since 2019, according to a new Climate Central, Inc. study. “Every hurricane in 2024 was stronger than it would have been 100 years ago,” Climate Central's Daniel Gilford, Ph.D., a climate scientist and lead author of the report, explained. “Through record-breaking ocean warming, human carbon pollution is worsening hurricane catastrophes in our communities.”

Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda’s chimed in from a different angle on the ever-shifting risk landscape at a forum in Tokyo. "As financial services grow more diverse and complex, the channels of risk transmission have become less transparent, and current financial regulations may not be fully equipped to manage new types of financial services," he said. "This environment underscores the need for operational resilience, including robust management of cybersecurity and third-party risks." With traditional risk models under pressure to adapt, insurers are poised to play a pivotal role in supporting that resilience. As technology evolves, so must the frameworks for mitigating its unintended consequences.

Shifting gears.... get ready for turkey, mashed potatoes, cranberry sauce, pumpkin pie and a steaming pile of traffic. This coming holiday week a record-breaking 79.9 million travelers will be hitting the road, skies and seas — making it the busiest Thanksgiving travel season ever. The good news is AAA can help chart your course with this handy graphic:

And we'll leave you with a dash of holiday spirit from our plucky Paragon squad in the Northeast. They spent a cold and rainy Thursday night on the hard ground inside Gillette Stadium to raise awareness and funds for millions struggling with youth homelessness. For more information on the amazing cause and how you can support it, visit the site.