Al Shabaab, Boko Haram and the Great Economies.

Prof. Adekunle Olawunmi GSS, NIM, Ph.D. & Abdurahman Rooti

Abstract

The World Order typified by concepts of Sovereignty, Globalism and Human Rights laws was created, presided over and secured by great economies after the WWII. Yet heroes of this process are presumably complicit in a subterfugerian and phony war against terrorism. While infuriating Islamic Jihadists appears as the motive, this duplicity equally promotes unfettered access to resources of poor regions and boost Globalists power projection in countries of their choosing. Sadly, civility, good order and respect for democratic creeds, which egalitarians moralized are fast eroding. And resulting therefrom among others are Al Shabaab and Boko Haram, which defiles Africa, with toxic manifestation on its natives. The article appraises why Al Shabaab and Boko Haram menace exist in Somalia and Nigeria by drawing on more than two decades of involvement with the subject. The riposte provides a clue as to why war on terrorism may rage infinitum in Africa.

Introduction

Great economies, which justly assumed higher realization, also seems to be deforming the world order due to an abysmal level of ignorance and conceit. This conclusion derives its asset among other variables, from the conduct of United Nations’ Envoy in Somalia Nicholas Haysom (of South African origin). Haysom wrote a letter to Somalia’s internal security ministry, demanding that it provide answers about the circumstances that led to the recent arrest of former Islamist leader, Mukhtar Robow. He went further to query his subsequent detention without trial in the western Somali city of Baidoa (The Somali Star, 2019). Accordingly, it becomes obvious, that the envoy interfered with Somali sovereignty, and thus, breaches diplomatic ethics and norms. 

Again, U.S. and the U.K. tacit withdrawal of support in the fight against the Islamic fundamentalists in the North Eastern part of Nigeria could compare the EU, Germany and the UK suspension of backing for local security forces in South West State of Somalia. It is akin to recent Amnesty International negative report about the Nigerian military in its efforts to stop Boko Haram as well. The ignorance is in consonance with Western media propaganda on this phony war - deception strategy and unbridled arms proliferations into the Continent. 

Puzzlingly, the decree of acknowledged civilized states is seemingly at variance with these nuances. And undoubtedly, some of these slips would be remedied at a greater cost in future.

But, if the West’s indignation goes against the world order, the creation of which it presided, then, and conceivably, its true focus are profit drives and the fear of waning.

Area of Study

This article examines Boko Haram and Al Shabaab terrorist groups from the perspective of foreign power influence. And in doing so, highlights the following: Issues, intrigues, challenges, raison d’etre, estimate, and way forward for Africa. For now, let us examine the issues.

Issues

While the conservative practice of Islam is not unrelated to the rise of militant religiosity in northern Nigeria and Somalia, there has been less scholarly attention devoted to external power that influence terrorist activities for strategic reasons. For long, we were conditioned to believe that the West is altruistic in this fight against terrorism. This is untrue.

As it turned out between the U.S., Turkey and Russia in the Syrian case, War on Terrorism ostensibly is Cold War returning to the central stage of world affairs by other means. Observably, this is happening few decades after the end of WWII, the outlawing of War by the United Nations and the end of Cold War. As a result, war against terrorism has surreptitiously replaced erstwhile model of Conventional War as a means of making economic gains and power projection. 

Presumably, War against terror is a phony war - it mirrors pioneering a pandemic and then profiteering from peddling the antidote. This is partly why strong states are opening strategic military bases and encouraging arms proliferations in the guise of fighting terrorists. 

Relatedly, if we examine fundamental ideologies of ISIS, Boko Haram, and Al-Shabaab, it essentially rests on Wahhabism. Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab was a Sunni Muslim scholar who preached orthodox and conservative Islam in Saudi Arabia in the 18th Century. Aside that Islam is a religion of peace, Jesus is referred to in the Quran more than any other person, over 100 times. A whole chapter named after Mary. In fact, she is referred to more times in the Quran than in the New Testament. 

As Wahhabism became more intense, globalist worked prospects that accentuates whatever intrinsic romanticisms that exists between Shiites and Sunnis, and accordingly, Islam began to lose its essential principle of tolerance and finally the war against terrorism became a common lexis after the Cold War ended. This was reinforced by the events of 9/11.

The true enquiry today should be - how did Muslims get contrived into this moment after what the Crusaders did? Statistics would reveal, and as it’s the case with ISIL, more Muslim men have lost their lives in the Hands of Boko Haram and Al Shabaab, than people of other religions combined. What effect does this scheme have on Muslim demographics?

Radical Islam is not a new phenomenon in northern Nigeria. For instance, the Maitatsine uprisings of December 1980 in Kano and Maiduguri October 1982 are not comparable to a tainted Boko Haram scourge today in Nigeria - furthering doubt as to the true and remote triggers behind Islamic extremism or global Jihad. Comparably, the jihadist groups in Somalia have been active since 1990’s. And in the case of Somalia, state collapse was the immediate reason why Al Shabaab quickly fills gaps left behind by the Central Government – a move that threatened the United States interest in the Horn of Africa. 

 

It is therefore, probable the U.S. efforts to help Somalia back to normal are not just conceited; it seems halfhearted and pretentious. The U.S. claim and propaganda about assistance concerning the rule of law, tackling widespread corruption inside the state factions, human rights violations and oppression is faced with contradictions and incongruities. The U.S. couldn’t be fighting a war or making reforms in Somalia for 2 decades unending – there could be other motives?

Despite the presence of so many international and regional actors in Somalia claiming they are in the country to support government efforts in several aspects such as counter-terrorism, Nation rebuilding and capacity injection for the ailing government functions little have been realized. Rather, what is apparent on the ground are profit making private companies that benefits from the tragedy of the Somali people. It did not take this long to build South Korea and Japan after WWII or Dubai recently.

 

Evidently, Al Shabaab could not be strong enough to face a committed ground forces presented by this coalition for so long. In comparism, because the Nigerian government rejected the idea of foreign mercenaries and unholy external help, things are getting out of hand in the North East. The Somali Government have around 26000 Military personal, over Ten Thousand Police Force, 25000 AU Military and Police and undeclared number of UK, EU and US militaries probably over 3000 personal. 

Notwithstanding these numbers, Al Shabaab is not only willing, but still able to hold more territory than the these forces combined. The U.S. airstrikes in Somalia in 2018 reach new record of 47 strikes, killing more than 400 fighters and tens of civilians, destroyed VBIEDs but still Al Shabaab are so lethal in terms of bomb making and occasional operations against Somali Government forces, AMISOM and Allies. Their tactics of roadside explosives, landmines, ambushes and complex attacks are still in high record and engendering fear among the people. 

Intrigues

In Somalia, it is not a conjecture that external power accounts solely for the Al Shabaab uprising and its continued existence. Today, Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab together accounts for a substantial amount of carnage on the African continent - by virtue of the sheer number of people killed, they are perhaps the deadliest terrorist organizations operational in the world. Their ideology is similar, but their raison detre diverges at the point of proscribing Western culture or so it seems. 

“Western-style education is mixed with issues that run contrary to our beliefs in Islam” (Mohammed Yusuf, BBC News, July 31, 2009). But, the subjective perspective of this narrative is Saudi Arabia, Iran and Dubai etc. - where Western education has helped in areas of military to technology, to economy and socio-political policies. There is therefore, no truth in the claim by the erstwhile leader of Boko Haram. Indeed, their mode of psychological operations and propaganda are via social media – a Western education derivative. Knowledge gained in the making of IED, and even weapons of choice are of Western origin.

Thus, there seems to be somewhat other immediate causes of the Nigerian kind of Islamic extremism (poverty); there are also the remote causes (Intrigues, media and small arms proliferation etc.) powered by external supremacist. And while the immediate causes could easily be engaged with (good governance), it is the remote causes that are strategic in nature.

Al Shabaab demand is focused on religion, which is not different from what obtains in Iran, Saudi Arabia etc. The ideology of Al Shabaab includes: Build Islamic state (Caliphate) in Somalia, fight against Somali Government, to rule on Sharia based principles, to fight against the presence of foreign powers who are “helping” Somalia. Some of these demands are bogus, not achievable and therefore dishonest.

But, when Europeans and Americans largely converge on the diagnostic, they profoundly differ on the cure to the plague they ostensibly created. In reality nothing is deeply wrong with the Somali group and their demands if there is the good will. They are not fundamentally different from the IRA, and the Basque separatist in Europe. 

The last week in December 2018 availed an unexpected dialogue with an erstwhile sect member of the Boko Haram group (some of those forgiven and released). I asked, why this war? He looked at me for a while as if searching for the right answer. The silence was so loud that I had to interject again. Is it because of Sharia that you guys desire your own Islamic Caliphate? At this point he said “no”. Then, what is it? He paused again, and this time I was mute as well. Then, as if he wanted to leave, he blurted, “I don’t know”. “Do you want to buy my merchandize or not”? My Hausa language is not very good, but I could get by - I said why not, I am interested in buying. He said it is three thousand Naira (Nigerian Currency) no reduction. So, I paid.

Ahmed (not his real name) told me before he left, that he does not know why they were sent to kill fellow Muslims; - because Boko Haram literarily mean “People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet’s Teachings and Jihad”. “This is just about bloodshed and it is total madness”. He asked me, could Boko Haram cause so much despair using bows, arrows or horses? Where are the weapons and finances coming from? Then he left quickly as he came. I also discarded the supply I bought from him; an herbal mix meant to enhance my libido. And decided on this article.

Of significance is the (PowerProfit) alignment as to why the two terrorist groups exist. If tactical nuclear weapon is out of reach of terrorist groups, so could AK47, RPGs and bomb making materials.

As a (former) Military Attaché, I know what it takes to procure weapons by conventional military; I am acquainted with guiding procedures relating to weapons procurement even through proxies - Including what it involves when planning logistics in support of fairly distant operations, which Boko Haram carries out fairly well. And what it takes to achieve successful tactical withdrawals particularly when opposed. 

The rag-tag boys being led by Ahmed Dirie Abu Obeida, the leader of Al Shabaab since 2014 and the sect boys I encountered in line of duty with Boko Haram (POW) surely deepens ambiguity - and getting helps from a superior power or mercenaries may be one of them. 

So how could Africa tackle these intrigues? – Before then, let us highlight some challenges.

Challenges

Before looking into why Boko Haram and Al Shabaab (BOHAS) exist in Africa, let’s contemplate on the new world order. 

The 21st century Cold War might prove to be as dodgy as the previous one, because, beyond ideology is now the trade war. There is also a full-fledged global power struggle involving three main actors outside the EU. Brewing among China, the United States and Russia is an arms race, technological rivalry and political hostility. 

And in a world dominated by bullies today, Africa would have to look inwards. However, with Nigeria, Egypt and South Africa in distress, the Chinese model becomes a realistic consummate and the forgone alternative - as the US or EU leadership is no longer certain. 

Raison D’etre

Arguably, the raison d’etre include the geostrategic importance of Somalia’s northern coast borders at the Gulf of Aden, which leads to Bab el-Mandeb, a narrow chokepoint through which all maritime traffic from the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean must pass (This is a common knowledge). Avoiding this strait would take all goods from the Persian Gulf – including oil around the entire African continent to reach European and American markets. It is also a valuable staging ground for navies to project power on to the Arabian Peninsula. Ostensibly, Nigeria’s influence in the Gulf of Guinea and strategic location of Somalia plays some significant roles as to why Boko Haram and Al Shabaab exist. 

On the platform of ECOMOG, Nigeria was pivotal in restoring normalcy and democracy to Liberia and Sierra Leone in the 90s raising concerns in the United States on the issue of Nigeria’s hegemon in the subregion. Nigeria also rejected a proposed American base (AFRICOM), which is now being staged in Ghana among others. This would give the Americans unfettered access to the South Atlantic waters and its vast resources. Similarly, the “Soviet Union” was intent on staging a base at the Horn of Africa during the Cold War – provoking a protracted (proxy) terrorist activity in Somalia. This kind of alternate war is clearly apparent in Syria – where ISIS subsists. 

The US strategy of maintaining presence in Somalia is to fence off any return of China and Russia to the Horn nations. Russians, after they forced US to withdraw from Syria by supporting blindly the Assad’s regime and interfered in Georgia, Ukraine and other nations in Europe politically, militarily and economically, may be nursing an idea to turn to Africa. Among priority areas would be Sudan, Somalia, Central African Republic, Chad Basin and Ghana. 

First they would establish military bases and approach the rest of Africa from there. China who is a good friend of old Somalia won the fishing license in Somali shores and is planning to expand interest to other fields to invest. The west will surely intensify support for terrorist activities in these regions in order to boost their hold of Horn of Africa and the Gulf of Guinea (ECOWAS). For China that is not familiar with “anarchynomics”, doing business in her newfound states on the Continent of Africa could be tricky. China may need to improve on what she started in Sudan.

Estimation

Indeed, the issues raised here are not for yesterdays strong, whose democracy has brought disorder and tumult to many countries including Somalia and Nigeria. Their ways are characterized and plagued with legalism, profligacy and challenges of populism. And because they are livid with ecstatic knowledge of the material, their realms remain time bound like other empires before them.

Half a decade ago, no one could have foreseen President Trump’s engagement with NAFTA, or Mexico, Syria, Iraq, Russia or even Afghanistan etc. For Africa, the world is in a state of unrest and the strategic mistake of the Gulf War is blowing up in our faces. Russia is becoming more inspired by Trump, China is foraging, Iran is evolving, ISS has grown, refugees are dying in the Mediterranean and weapons from Libya’s adventure could be found in Mali, Chad, Niger, Cameroon and Nigeria etc. 

Yet, Consumerists are destroying the balance of power in ECOWAS, as they did in the Persian Gulf in 2003 when Allies invaded Iraq. And those promoting terrorism in Somalia; killing and starving children to death would in due course wish they had resigned from their current vocation – just as Colonel Larry Wilkerson (State Department Official under George W. Bush) realized too late about Iraq. 

In the Gulf of Guinea region (ECOWAS), it may be difficult to predict with confidence, which country will evolve after Nigeria is destroyed by the globalists– Predictably Ghana who is still enjoying a romance with the U.S.? Whatever happens to Nigeria, Ghana may not be able to withstand the refugee inflow – even with all the American troops therein. It is equally not certain how Nigeria and Somalia would turnout half a Century from now. Certainly there would be massive refugee crises, starvation, killing, death, colossal turmoil, and state failing and so forth. Maybe Chad, Niger, Mali, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Angola would become the new terrorist outposts for yet undisclosed resources. It may be Eritrea, Liberia, Senegal or South Africa.

Surely, Africa would continue to decline on the slope of deceit, as long as the Consumerists see the Continent (and rightly so) as unequal, unable, vulnerable and full of undesirables. 

Africa must look inwards and study the Chinese model; we have all that we need and more. But for great economies, we conclude – If their deeds are on the side of posterity, then, time and space is all we have between us. Let us feature some counsels. 

Way Forward

Essentially, many literatures in the field of terrorism are Western, most writers on the topic and authors of African origin do cite literatures written by Western essayists such that their views are tainted by false narratives of 9/11; accounts of Osama Bin Laden, the reasons for Gulf War I&II, the Axis of Evil mantra, Denuclearization, Regime change, the CNN effect, PowerProfit game between Russia, China and the USA etc. – This would not help.

Though great economies can’t be assuaged – but rather than free riding the horse, they could focus on solving problems of poverty, greed, corruption, and lack of basic needs in health, education, water and food; the root causes of Boko Haram and Al Shabaab. In Somalia, guns and drones haven’t worked for more than 2 decades, and won’t work in the next decades or so. While building more fences to shut us out, in the alternate, globalist could engage in fair trade with Africa.

Somalia should urgently form a robust Union with Djibouti and Yemen among other states around the Horn of Africa to chart a way forward on the activities of the Globalist and carry out an appraisal of 2 decades of the United Nations in the narrow straight. For Nigeria, it is time to flush out the current corrupt political class – no more. The Nigerian elites are the subversive class that exacerbates terrorist game of the globalist. Without these cohorts, Nigeria would be great again.

Furthermore, resolving current problem in Africa would require building a well-informed society and securing the best deals with globalists at all times. No doubt, education should henceforth become priority areas of governance – so that Africa could clearly see through Consumerists’ duplicity and perfidy. 

Furthermore, on the areas of education, research and policy, there is the need for all Tertiary institutions in Africa to include in their curriculum studies that mainstreams Domestic Subversive Organizations and Hostile Intelligence Services - Espionage, and Counter Espionage. They also need to understand the Strategic Cultures and Geo Strategic concerns of the United States, China and Russia, International Financial System, Multinationals and International Business and practices – these are separate papers and it would not be established upon in this article. 

Hopefully, the task ahead cannot be greater than the power within Africa. We can learn to place values on ourselves and Africa’s young scholars must be made to understand the narrow path - and distinguish what the Consumerist teaches their young children about how to keep Africa in chains. They must discern that the PowerProfit philosophy is the main reason why Boko Haram and Al Shabaab exist on the African soil – African young scholars must be told, that great economies are not altruistic by nature.