Ajit Pawar in catch 22 situation: Whether to ditch NCP or join hands with BJP to avoid probes and thereby chart new path in Maharashtra politics

NCP chief Sharad Pawar without naming Ajit has hinted that those who want to quit may do so though he will remain with MVA

Sanjay Jog

Like his uncle and veteran politician Sharad Pawar,??Ajit Pawar enjoys rumour mongering mills to run on full steam and keep people guessing about his moves. His possible move to ditch uncle and Nationalist Congress Party to join hands with BJP-Shinde government in a bid to avoid action from the central probe agencies is the trigger for him to hog the headlines. Even though Ajit has repeatedly denied any substance in the news with regard to his defection or to cosy up with BJP to skip action from the Enforcement Directorate in the Maharashtra State Cooperative bank scam, party members in particular are not convinced as there are few takers.

His clarification came after party chief Sharad Pawar has reportedly told Shiv Sena Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray chief Uddhav Thackeray and party MP Sanjay Raut during their meeting held last week that he would remain with the Maha Vikas Aghadi even though efforts are on to target his family members by the central agencies. Raut has further revealed that Pawar has made it amply clear without naming Ajit that those who want to leave the party and chart their own path fearing arrest may well do so as he won’t stop them.??

Pawar’s statement has dropped sufficient hints that all is not well within NCP as Ajit along with few legislators and party office bearers are making up their mind to leave the party to avoid alleged harassment from probe agencies and thereby maintaining their hold in their respective constituencies and various cooperative and private undertakings.??They cite examples of the arrest of senior leader and former minister Chhagan Bhujbal’s arrests in the alleged Maharashtra Sadan scam, arrest of former minister Anil Deshmukh following the Rs 100 crore bribe allegations by ex-Mumbai chief and the arrest of former minister Nawab Malik for the alleged Dawood Ibrahim links. They are of the view that the time is ripe to take a decision especially when BJP and PM Narendra Modi in particular have declared that their war against corruption will further gather a momentum.?

However, Ajit, who had left Pawar to join hands with BJP in November 2019 to be sworn as the deputy chief minister with CM Devendra Fadnavis for 80 hours before returning to NCP, although enjoys command over the legislative party he has yet to shore up the adequate numbers to avoid action under anti defection law. Nearly 36 legislators of the total 53 MLAs are needed for smooth migration. Party insiders said so far only 7 to 10 legislators are with Ajit to take a plunge while the rest are resolved to remain with Sharad Pawar or take a call only after the Supreme Court announces judgement over the Maharashtra power struggle.

Further, if Ajit decides to defect with less than 36 legislators, his future in the BJP-Shinde government will be bleak though he and his supporters may get respite from probe by central agencies.??On the other hand, even though he mobilises 36 legislators including himself he is not sure of becoming BJP as the Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, who enjoys strong support from Union Home Minister Amit Shah, is firm in the saddle. Shinde is not worried about the news doing the rounds about Ajit’s defection and becoming CM replacing him. This is because of Shah in particular and BJP in general have told Shinde that the Shiv Sena and BJP will together contest the upcoming Lok Sabha and assembly elections in 2024 under his leadership. ‘’Unless Shah tells me I will not step down,’’ was Shinde’s candid declaration to his supporters and BJP.

Political observers believe that BJP, which has been desperately pursuing its Mission 45 plus and 200m plus in the ensuing ok Sabha and assembly polls in Maharashtra, will like Maha Vikas Aghadi to break as it sees it a challenge to achieve its electoral gains. BJP, which is coined as ‘’MahaShakti’’ by opponents has helped disgruntled Shinde and 39 Shiv Sena legislators and 10 independents to wreck the MVA boat in June 2022, is quite keen to lure legislators from NCP and even Congress ahead of upcoming elections. Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has last week admitted that legislators from NCP and other parties are in BJP’s touch and the party will take a due call for admitting them into the party fold.?

So for Ajit it is a Catch 22 situation whether to ditch uncle to pursue his political ambition or remain with MVA by taking on probe agencies especially when various surveys have said that Shinde led Shiv Sena and BJP may face major setbacks in the coming polls. On the other hand, for BJP and Shinde it all depends on how Ajit’s entry along with his supporters and also Congress legislators will come handy to achieve its Mission 2024 or it will become a liability.