Airline Passenger Travel – Some Considerations for A Return To ‘Normal’

The recent economic briefing from IATA on 21st April paints a stark picture of airline travel for the rest of 2020 with a projected $314 billion loss in passenger revenue and an estimated 25 million jobs at risk. In economic terms, the message is clear, do not expect a return to normal in the immediate short term. As relevant as the briefing is, we have yet to see consolidated proposals on what a ‘return to normal’ might mean in terms of additional requirements for passengers, airports and airlines. Before reviewing some potential measures on what the new ‘normal’ might look like, it is valuable to examine some aspects of the pandemic.

The US Center for Disease Control & Prevention, (CDC) provides a range of guidance for various non-medical sectors, including the airline industry. As a starting point, it is useful to examine some definitions used by the CDC:

Close contact of a COVID-19 case – In the context of COVID-19, an individual is considered a close contact if they

 a) have been within approximately 6 feet of a COVID-19 case for a prolonged period of time or

 b) have had direct contact with infectious secretions from a COVID-19 case (e.g., have been coughed on)

Social Distancing – Social distancing is the practice of increasing the space between individuals and decreasing the frequency of contact to reduce the risk of spreading a disease (ideally to maintain at least 6 feet between all individuals, even those who are asymptomatic)[1]

Both of these definitions, fit the current airline passenger experience in that people will be in close contact for a prolonged period of time, (typically 30 minutes on a short haul flight increasing to hours for long haul sectors). Moreover, the current aircraft seating configurations, particularly in economy class, do not meet the social distancing guidance described above.  Airlines now face two immediate challenges, restoring passenger confidence in that the person you are seated next to is not a COVID-19 case, (confirmed or suspected) and implementing reasonable social distancing measures on board aircraft. The gold standard measure for the first challenge is a vaccination certificate, (e.g. a Yellow Fever certificate is currently required by immigration authorities in certain countries). As development of a COVID-19 vaccine is some 12 to 18 months off, some form of compensatory measure is needed. Temperature checks of people are now commonplace. They are quick to administer but do not give a definitive response, merely an indicative one. We are also seeing that certain airlines and airports are implementing ‘rapid testing’ at departure, perhaps initially as a passenger confidence building measure. For the second challenge, airlines should consider adjusting economy class seating configurations, particularly as business class seat sales will be reduced unless heavily discounted.  Airlines can either remove the middle seat of a row of three or block the middle seat within the booking system as not being available. Seat removal will save weight and therefore fuel, blocking provides a simpler to implement solution. Both solutions will impact revenue. These options are not a complete definitive list. Fast forward two years and the picture for airline passenger travel might look like this:

·        The online booking process will require a vaccination certificate reference before accepting the booking, in the same way passport details are required now.

·        Online seat selection in economy will be limited to either A or C on one side and H or K on the other. Seat pitch may also be increased, (good for passengers but with an impact on RSKs). Economy seat prices may cost more as a result

·        A temperature check will be undertaken as part of an enhanced health and security screening protocol. The task will be part of a security officers’ new responsibilities. The checks may be on a continuous random % basis or apply to all passengers and crew.

·        Those who have a high temperature will be required to complete a more indicative health check, (possibly the rapid test being introduced at some airports). Those who refuse will be denied boarding, those who test positive will be referred to airport medical staff.

·        Social distancing measures will remain in force, particularly at duty free and fast food outlets within airports.

·        There will be limited contact between cabin crew and passengers. On board food and beverage services may be limited or removed entirely, particularly for short haul sectors, (the European low cost carrier model). This would also reduce costs.

·        Business class sales would be for those with the disposable income to afford the price of a seat. First class seats could be phased out entirely as being cost prohibitive. Business class sales will generally be lower, particularly as CFOs will be looking for savings and company travel budgets will be cut substantially in favor of video or tele-conferencing.

In summary, the above are projections only. While they might be unacceptable to airline CEO's today and generate considerable resistance from the airline industry as a whole, industry bodies should urgently consider that if they are not ‘leading, serving and representing’ then above projections may be enforced by regulation like it or not. Better then to set out proposals today and work towards them rather than solely provide an economic ‘Red Flag’ indicator, notwithstanding the added value of the data itself.

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/correction-detention/guidance-correctional-detention.html