AIR TRANSPORT: EVOLUTION OR REVOLUTION?

4 July 2023

The Paris Air Show has just ended under an avalanche of orders for civilian aircraft, while the military are widely represented in this event, they are very discreet about their commercial relations. I retain two developments that may represent a real revolution.

Let's first talk about local transport which sees a large number of manufacturers of the famous eVTOLs (Electric Vertical Take Off and Landing) arrive on the market, in other words, the new flying taxis whose essential merit is to run on electricity, and therefore to produce little noise. Of course, as at any beginning of a new activity, many manufacturers enter the market with more original ideas than each other. This is how we see the reappearance of the flying car developed by a Czech "start-up"t. I noted 31 projects, each developed by a company created for the occasion. Certainly, everyone is still groping, as indeed when the first motor cars appeared. The shapes will necessarily be simplified, the electric motors will become more powerful and the propellers more efficient. But what was only a distant dream not so long ago is becoming a reality.

The case is considered serious enough that the large European car manufacturer Stellantis which brings together 15 well-known brands including Citro?n, Chrysler, Fiat, Opel or Peugeot, has decided to take a stake of 150 million euros in the Californian company Archer whose first model, the Midnight was pre-bought 100 copies by United Airlines which paid $ 100 million for it. The Midnight will not enter commercial flights until 2025, but Stellantis has already positioned itself to handle all manufacturing.

It remains to be seen what and to whom these new flying machines will be used. It is clear that the Americans mainly intend to provide connections between airports and the center of cities where it is easy to find platforms that can accommodate them. This is not the case in Europe and Paris, for example, it is planned to use the current heliport but also a barge on the Seine at the start of operations hoped for the 2024 Olympic Games. On the other hand, for many countries, this new means of transport could be very well used to open up small and medium-sized cities by simply using sports fields that are largely underused on weekdays. What was denied to helicopters for obscure reasons may well be allowed for these electrically powered vehicles, piloted or not. However, it will be necessary to rethink the management of airspace close to the ground and in urban areas. This is a great subject for reflection and action for air traffic controllers.

At the other end of the spectrum, Airbus announces the upcoming arrival on the market of the A 321 XLR for Extra Long Range. This aircraft will have a range of 4,700 nm or 8,700 km and will consume 30% less at the seat than the most efficient models today. It will be able to carry around 200 passengers on most current air routes. The first flight took place on June 15, 2022, and the certification of the aircraft is underway for entry into service as early as 2024. This will give new opportunities to airlines that need a medium-capacity but highly efficient model to limit their risk.

This raises the question of the future usefulness of mega hubs, a number of which are either in operation such as Istanbul or Beijing or under construction such as Dubai World Central or even the new project in Warsaw. Since medium-sized flows can be served with high-performance aircraft, why would operators lose the economic and commercial advantages of direct flights between airports of much smaller size but much easier to operate to connect with others of the same size in very large platforms?

These are two new possibilities at both ends of air transport. Will it be a simple evolution or the need to rethink both the operational aspects, but also the topics related to the economy and customer comfort? It seems that the public ended up accepting very easily a very sharp increase in rates on which no company manager or "Yield Management" professional would have bet. Air transport has always demonstrated its ability to renew itself. That may be what is happening.