AIR TRANSPORT – A BUMPY RECOVERY

1 May 2023

It is now a fact, air transport has regained its colours, companies are returning to profitability, customers have accepted strong fare increases and the volume of traffic will most likely return to the figures of 2019, one before the forecasts yet qualified as optimistic. In short, the critics of this activity who predicted its decline are at their expense. And yet it doesn't happen by itself.

Many obstacles have risen as activity has resumed. It began with the strikes and first those of the air traffic controllers, first and foremost the French. As the latter had no real reasons for discontent, they followed the actions of the unions against future pension schemes. It can be recalled that they are absolutely not concerned because their status protects them. But it is stronger than them, they must regularly show their capacity for nuisance. However, the DGAC, which is their employer, is unable to organize air traffic control unless it asks companies to cancel between 20% and 30% of their flights on major French platforms. The damage is not only felt in France. All European north/south traffic is impacted, which has earned a violent diatribe by Michael O'Leary, the head of Ryanair, who for once found a good reason for one of his regular media outings. France is not the only one affected by work stoppages, other European countries, and in particular Germany, have also suffered from strikes by security guards at 4 of the country's major airports. And in any case, we can still expect work stoppages during the summer months.

"Low-cost" carriers were also largely disrupted during the beginning of the year. First the first of them: Southwest Airlines which has just suffered, on April 18, a delay of 2360 flights caused by a computer failure. This follows the very important cancellations that American companies suffered in the face of the disastrous weather conditions of January. Work stoppages are now found in Europe, in particular at Vueling forced to cancel a very large part of its program following the strike of cabin crew who demand a 15% wage increase. And meanwhile, the company continues to promote its rates at €10.99, which doesn't even pay for fuel!

Finally, the employees of these companies, which are largely used to reduce costs, are beginning to find their status unworthy of their activity. No wonder they show some discontent. Moreover, it would be surprising if new social tensions did not manifest themselves while tariffs increased on average by more than 30%.

Airport capacity is also a factor of tension in air transport. Major airports were surprised by the strong recovery seen last year, particularly during the summer months. They were overwhelmed because they had not foreseen such an influx of customers and this led to disorder, still unacceptable, whether in the management of queues or in the handling of luggage. The images of 2022 were eloquent enough that the same phenomena did not happen again. But the problems remain even if they are mitigated. It is still difficult to recruit ground agents because the latter, often employed by subcontractors subject to tenders, are rather underpaid and their working conditions are not very enviable. The mechanization of certain tasks related to security and identity checks has been delayed. Summer may still be tricky, but that doesn't seem to discourage customers eager for far-flung travel.

And then there is always this ecologist pressure that continues to weigh including on political leaders to curb the expansion of air transport. For example, the Dutch government has tried to reduce the number of movements at Amsterdam Schipol Airport from 500,000 to 440,000 per year. For once, the major operators KLM and Air France rebelled and took the case to the Dutch administrative courts, which ruled in their favour. Other attempts will certainly be made if only to stop private flights supposed to pollute too much while they will probably be the first to benefit from decarbonization either by electric propulsion, or the use of SAF (Sustainable Aircraft Fuel).

It is increasingly urgent that all actors in air transport unite their efforts and their financial capacities to create a very powerful lobbying to defend this great activity.