AIR FORCE: The 'ins' and 'outs' of Australia's Covid-19 border flights

While Australia’s borders remain closed to all but a handful of arrivals and departures, and are likely to stay that way for up to another year, a detailed picture is emerging of the international flights which are entering and leaving the country, the busiest airports and routes, and the carriers most active in the market.

Figures collated by the Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics (BITRE) show that in March 2021, one year after Covid-19 was designated a global pandemic, and well after Australia shut the door to the world, 45 airlines were still flying to and from the country, 40 carrying both passengers and freight, and five uplifting just freight. But movements of both were dramatically down.

Total passenger numbers crossing the country’s borders were emaciated, totalling 58,336 in March this year, a staggering 96.6 per cent lower than the 1.726 million in March 2020, while international arrivals and departures for the year ended March 2021 totalled 796,416, 98 per cent lower than the previous year.

Singapore Airlines had the greatest share of both international passenger and freight movements for the month, albeit based on vastly smaller-than-usual volumes, more than doubling its share of passengers from eight per cent in March 2020 to 19.3 per cent in March 21, while its share of freight was 15 per cent in March this year, slightly down on the 16 per cent for the same period last year.

Sydney Airport, the nation’s largest air hub, dominated international passenger and freight traffic with 29,338 travellers arriving or departing in March 2021 (50 per cent of the Covid-corroded national total), and 47,333 tonnes of freight received or dispatched (64 per cent of total).

More passengers left the country in March (30,397) than arrived (27,939), while more freight came in (41,349 tonnes) than went out (32,254. tonnes).

Total seats on international scheduled flights to and from Australia were 87 per cent fewer than one year earlier, while seat utilisation on the flights which operated plunged from an average 61 per cent in March 2020 to just 15.5 per cent in March 2021.

The top 10 airlines operating into and out of Australia in March 2021 carried 77.5 per cent of all arriving and departing passengers.

Behind Singapore Airlines, the second and third-ranked airlines for passenger share were Qatar Airways (15.3 per cent) and Air New Zealand (14.5 per cent).

No Australian airline featured in the top 10, with the country’s largest operator, the Qantas Group (Qantas, Jetstar and Jetstar Asia) accounting for just 2.7 per cent of the country's international passenger journeys in March 2021, down from 27.9 per cent a year earlier. Total Australian airline share was 35.3 per cent in March 2020, when Virgin Australia was also flying internationally.

Low-cost carriers accounted for just 0.7 per cent of international passenger arrivals and departures in March 2021, well down on the 14 per cent share one year earlier.

The top five sectors for passenger traffic in March 2021 were between Sydney and Auckland (8.2 per cent of the month’s total), Sydney and Singapore (6.6 per cent), Sydney and Los Angeles (5.9 per cent), Sydney and Doha (4.7 per cent), and Melbourne and Auckland (also 4.7 per cent).

International scheduled freight traffic was also down in March 2021, though nowhere near the percentage drop-off in passenger traffic, with 73,604 tonnes uplifted for the month, 8.5 per cent under the March 2020 total.

Inbound freight volumes actually rose by 3.2 per cent, while outbound freight was down by 20 per cent compared to March 2020.

The top 10 airlines for freight accounted for 69 per cent of market share, led by Singapore Airlines (15 per cent, and the only one in double digits), with the next three line-balling each other. Second-ranked Emirates had 9.5 per cent market share, followed by Qantas with 9.3 per cent and pure freight operator FedEx with 9.2 per cent.

And the top five routes for freight were between Sydney and Singapore (8.6 per cent of total tonnes), Sydney and LA (6.6 per cent), Melbourne and Singapore (6.2 per cent), Sydney and Auckland (6 per cent) and Sydney and Hong Kong (3.9 per cent).

While it is not clear when Australia's international borders will reopen, or to what extent, what is clear is that the next set of BITRE air transport figures will be significantly different, following the establishment in April this year of a 'travel bubble' between Australia and New Zealand, which, despite sporadic disruption caused by localised outbreaks of Covid-19 and its variants, has facilitated a major increase in trans-Tasman capacity by both the Qantas Group and Air New Zealand.

There's also talk of other travel bubbles such as Australia-Singapore, though a recent lockdown of the latter has delayed that move.

Also unclear is the timing of and extent to which international flights to and from Australia will grow, as there's no guarantee that all airlines will restore anything like the capacity they offered pre-pandemic, or in a coordinated way, with many international routes likely to remain reduced, suspended, cancelled, or intermittently closed. It won't simply be a case of everything automatically defaulting to what it was.

Flight capacity is likely to be much lighter than what it was pre-pandemic when markets begin to open again, with smaller aircraft operating many routes as a consequence of depressed demand and the retirement or temporary decommissioning of larger aircraft including Boeing 747s, Airbus A380 'super jumbos', and older versions of large twinjets such as the Boeing 777.

Frequencies also are likely to be down, as airlines rebuild cautiously, particularly on routes previously served by multiple daily flights.

And while lower air fares are sure to be introduced in measured volumes to help reactivate demand when international routes begin reopening, prolonged deep discounting is neither sustainable nor likely.

The Covid cuts to flight capacity, the unaligned reconstruction or deconstruction of airlines, networks, and connectivity partnerships, and the need for airlines and airports to recover as much as possible the extraordinary losses they've incurred from the pandemic, all send the signal that rebuild strategies will focus heavily on minimising costs and maximising revenues.

The air transport industry - airlines, airports, and all who rely upon them - continues to endure the pain of an extraordinary near-death experience, as evidenced not only by the localised figures in Australia, but also the global perspective of their industry body, the International Air Transport Association, which predicts that international air passenger traffic is unlikely to return to pre-Covid levels until around 2024.

Like recovery from any serious illness or injury, the rehabilitation of international air services is likely to be long, cautious, and risk averse. Add to that the uncertainty of patchy global recovery, sporadic localised outbreaks like those now occurring in multiple Australian states, varying vaccination rates, and uncoordinated global and even domestic responses to travel biosecurity and it becomes very clear. This is still far from over.

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Here are the top 10 airlines for international passenger movements to and from Australia in March 2021, with their percentage share of a vastly smaller market than there was in March 2020.

* Singapore Airlines: UP to 19.3 per cent (March 2021) V 8.1 per cent (March 2020)

* Qatar Airways: UP to 15.3 per cent M21 V 5 per cent M20

* Air New Zealand: UP to 14.5 per cent M21 V 8.4 per cent M20

* Emirates: UP to 8.9 per cent M21 V 8.2 per cent M20

* China Southern: UP to 5.7 per cent M21 V 0.8 per cent M20

* United: UP to 3.9 per cent M21 V 1.8 per cent M20

* Etihad: DOWN to 2.6 per cent M21 V 2.9 per cent M20

* Air Niugini: UP to 2.5 per cent M21 V 0.4 per cent M20

* SriLankan: UP to 2.4 per cent M21 V 0.6 per cent M20

* Delta: UP to 2.4 per cent M21 V 0.5 per cent M20.

In March 2021, the busiest Australian airports for international passenger arrivals and departures were:

* Sydney: 29,338, 50.3 per cent of the month’s total movements

* Brisbane: 10,463, 17.9 per cent market share

* Melbourne: 9,951, 17.1 per cent market share

* Perth: 5,692, 9.8 per cent market share

The top 10 airlines by share of freight movements were:

* Singapore Airlines: DOWN to 15 per cent M21 from 16 per cent M20

* Emirates: UP to 9.5 per cent M21 V 8.1 per cent M20

* Qantas: DOWN to 9.3 per cent M21 V 13.2 per cent M20

* FedEx: UP to 9.2 per cent M21 V 5.9 per cent M20

* Qatar Airways: UP to 7.9 per cent M21 V 3.8 per cent M20

* Kalitta Air (freight airline): UP to 4.6 per cent M21 V 0.1 per cent M20

* Malaysia Airlines: UP to 4.2 per cent M21 V 4 per cent M20

* Polar Air Cargo: UP to 3.4 per cent M21 V 0.8 per cent M20

* United Airlines: UP to 3.2 per cent M21 V 1.7 per cent M20

* Tasman Cargo Airlines: UP to 2.9 per cent M21 V 1.8 per cent M20.

And Australia’s busiest airports for international air freight in March 2021 were:

* Sydney: 47,333 tonnes, 64.3 per cent of national total

* Melbourne: 16,212 tonnes, 22 per cent of total

* Brisbane: 4,925 tonnes, 6.7 per cent of total

* Perth: 3,852 tonnes, 5.2 per cent of total