In the Air

Hello from Paris,

A city electric with the Olympics, which opened with spectacular flair as well as literal flares in the arson of several high-speed train cable boxes.

Many in the security services are blaming Russia (an alleged FSB saboteur – and onetime celebrity chef – was recently arrested). Many in the public are blaming the far left (deprived of government and angry about it). And Israel is blaming Iran (unlikely, including for its proxies).?

With so many enemies with the capability and will, expect more interruptions over the coming weeks. French authorities must be successful all the time. The saboteurs only once. And Macron’s troubles will outlast the games.?

But France has not been the only country to experience spectacular disruptions over the past week.

In America, after Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the presidential race, the new candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, has injected vigour. This has led the race to take on a completely different complexion. Trump must now debate policy as well as personality (and drop the “age card”). The demographics may have turned in the Democrats’ favour (with Harris likely to fare better among women and minorities). But Harris is likely in a honeymoon period and whatever lead she may have could be short-lived. Either way, the race is on.

Venezuelans also went to the polls over the weekend but in a demonstrably rigged election. Unsurprisingly, Nicolas Maduro claimed victory, saying he had won 51% of votes. The opposition said it had won 70%. A face-saving deal with the opposition, potentially to run local governments, is likely but further sanctions from the West – lacking enthusiasm for inflicting more pain – are not.

We discussed these and other issues yesterday in our monthly private roundtable discussion for GD Professional subscribers – whose benefits include not only these online interactive deep-dives but also access to our Daily Dispatches and Week Signals, our Saturday edition, that covers the week in review and looks forward to the week ahead.

We also made an announcement about welcoming to the Geopolitical Strategy team six highly experienced advisors with unparalleled experience in diplomacy and finance, who are working with our clients on high-stakes geopolitical advisory and corporate diplomacy projects. If you would like to know more about our consulting services, please don't hesitate to get in touch.

Otherwise, some of the main stories for this past week have been:

• Turkey: Israel urged NATO to expel Turkey Monday after Tayyip Erdogan threatened to "enter" Israel. Turkish and Armenian officials met Tuesday for normalisation talks. Ankara's parliament approved a deployment of troops to Mogadishu.
• Italy: Giorgia Meloni met Xi Jinping in Beijing Monday, saying Italy could play an "important role" for China in the EU. Citing the Silk Road, Xi said, "If countries are inter-connected, they will advance; if they are closed, they will retreat."
• Hungary, Poland: Warsaw had "crossed another line" by proposing the next EU foreign ministers' meeting be held in Ukraine, Budapest said Monday. Poland foreign ministry Sunday suggested Hungary leave the EU and NATO to "join a union with Putin".
• Bulgaria: President Rumen Radev asked the sixth-placed There is Such a People (ITN) party to form a coalition government Monday after the larger GERB and We Continue the Change (PP) parties failed to do so following last month's election.
• United States: Joe Biden called for Supreme Court term limits and an end to presidential immunity in a speech at the Lyndon B Johnson Presidential Library in Austin Monday. House Speaker Mike Johnson said the proposals would be "dead on arrival."
• Israel, Lebanon: Twelve were killed and 42 injured Saturday in a rocket attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights town of Majdal Shams. Israel and the US blamed Hezbollah, which denied culpability, attributing the deaths to an Iron Dome projectile.
• Sri Lanka: Sri Lanka said Friday it would hold presidential elections on 21 September. Sri Lanka's parliamentary speaker said Colombo wanted closer ties with Beijing. The foreign minister earlier said Sri Lanka would "not be an ally of any group".
• WTO: Around 80 countries agreed on rules over trade in digital commerce Friday after five years of negotiation at the WTO. The US said more work was needed before it would sign on. India criticised the agreement for not involving all members.

And now, back to the Olympics. Have a great week,

Damien