Air Cargo Demand Rises by 9% in September

September proved to be a strong month for the air cargo industry, with a notable 9% year-over-year increase, according to the logistics intelligence platform Xeneta. Key drivers included modal shifts due to container shipping disruptions, ongoing e-commerce demand, and a surge in cargo activity just ahead of China’s Golden Week, a major annual shopping and travel holiday. Each factor contributed to this robust demand, illustrating the broader trend of businesses turning to air freight to maintain delivery timelines amid port congestion, adverse weather, and shifting consumer expectations.

Persistent issues in the global container shipping sector have prompted shippers to explore alternative transportation options. With port congestion, delays, and ongoing supply chain disruptions, companies are increasingly shifting to air freight to mitigate the impact of delays. Additionally, typhoon activity in Asia contributed to these supply chain challenges, prompting many businesses to expedite their shipments to ensure timely arrival. These shifts are particularly common in industries with perishable or high-value goods, where delays resulted in substantial losses.

The influence of e-commerce on the air freight sector remains strong, further evidenced by the September uptick. As consumers increasingly demand rapid delivery, particularly for retail and consumer electronics, retailers and logistics providers are turning to air freight for its speed and efficiency. E-commerce has proven to be a stable driver of air cargo growth, with many companies expanding their online offerings, which in turn increases the volume of air shipments needed to meet consumer demands.

E-commerce giants are investing in fulfillment strategies that require expedited shipments, and with air freight providing a reliable solution, the cargo industry has become a crucial part of e-commerce supply chains. This trend is particularly significant in densely populated regions where consumers expect fast deliveries, a demand exacerbated by peak shopping periods.

Preparations for China’s Golden Week, partially fueled September’s surge, a holiday that spurs consumer spending and shopping in the weeks leading up to it. As a result, companies escalated production and shipping to ensure adequate stock levels for holiday sales. This annual peak period has become increasingly impactful on air cargo, with demand spikes commonly seen as companies prepare for Golden Week and aim to meet the heightened consumer demand. Golden Week, similar to Western holiday shopping seasons, creates short-term bottlenecks and can lead to increased rates as companies compete for limited space.

As the market transitions from September to October, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw cautions that challenges lie ahead. Experts believe that the three-day strike at U.S. ports, although short, will have enduring consequences for supply chains, potentially taking four to six weeks to fully recover. October may become a “whole new ball game,” with significant impacts on rates and capacity as the industry enters the holiday peak. Van de Wouw explains that the strike’s timing could amplify rate volatility and demand fluctuations, impacting shippers’ ability to secure air freight at predictable costs.

A key aspect of the October outlook is the seasonal reduction in air cargo capacity. As winter approaches, airlines typically adjust capacity, leading to fewer available cargo slots. Van de Wouw suggests that the “fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) effect” could cause rates to increase on specific trade lanes, particularly because companies try to secure space before capacity is reduced. For shippers reliant on tight timelines, the FOMO effect could lead to unexpected cost increases, making it challenging to budget accurately for holiday shipping needs. Industries with high-margin goods or perishable products may find themselves particularly vulnerable to these shifts.

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly in the Red Sea area, make the market even more complex. This region is a critical route for global shipping, and disruptions could affect both ocean and air freight, especially for shipments involving Europe, Asia, and Africa. The potential for conflict escalation could lead to re-routing, delays, or capacity constraints, all of which would likely push more demand onto air freight to compensate for disruptions in ocean transport. The industry is no stranger to geopolitical risks, but this particular threat comes at a sensitive time, just as the market braces for the peak season.

November has historically been the most active month for air cargo as retailers and manufacturers prepare for the year-end holiday shopping season. For the industry, this period represents an operational and logistical challenge, balancing increased demand with the need for efficient, timely deliveries. The disruptions and demand fluctuations leading up to the peak season have made it more complex, prompting many carriers to increase rates in response to the heightened demand.

To navigate the upcoming peak season effectively, air freight operators are focusing on maintaining operational resilience and capacity management. Innovative strategies, including demand forecasting and route optimization, may help alleviate some pressure, but the confluence of factors influencing this year’s peak season could lead to heightened unpredictability. The air cargo market will need to rely on agility, leveraging both short- and long-term strategies to meet the unique challenges of this year’s peak period.

The September demand increase and the anticipated October and November volatility underscore the importance of technology and automation in the air cargo industry. By implementing advanced tracking, AI-driven forecasting, and automated handling systems, air cargo companies aim to improve response times and accommodate the fluctuating demands of a dynamic market. Automated solutions help air cargo companies by managing capacity constraints, predicting rate trends, and ensuring efficient resource allocation.

The industry is also exploring diversification in supply chain logistics to reduce dependency on traditional routes that may be impacted by geopolitical issues. As the air cargo market becomes more complex, the role of resilience and adaptability becomes ever more critical. Companies investing in these advanced systems are better positioned to navigate the turbulence of peak seasons and unexpected events.

Xeneta’s recent insights indicate that the air cargo industry is in a period of transformation, shaped by multiple factors, including consumer expectations, global trade dynamics, and technological innovation. September’s demand increase highlights the adaptability of the market, while the October and November outlooks remind industry players of the inherent challenges of peak season logistics.

The coming months will be an indicator of how well the industry can respond to both internal and external pressures, from supply chain shifts to geopolitical risks. As companies continue to adapt to the changing landscape, those with strong logistics networks, advanced technological solutions, and proactive risk management strategies will probably emerge as leaders in a rapidly evolving market.

The combination of lingering port strikes and a looming economic slowdown is likely to make October and November difficult months for the air cargo industry, despite the positive trend in September. The combination of lingering port strike effects, seasonal capacity reductions, and geopolitical risks means that the market must brace for potential rate volatility and capacity issues as the peak season approaches. For companies and logistics providers alike, the coming months will demand agility, innovation, and robust contingency planning to meet the demands of a competitive and uncertain global logistics environment.

The air cargo market’s ability to meet heightened demand without compromising on cost or efficiency will be under scrutiny as shippers prepare for the busiest season of the year. How the industry addresses the dual pressures of operational constraints and customer expectations will shape its trajectory in the months and years to come.

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