Aintree - Thursday Preview

Manifesto Novices Chase (13.45)

Seeing the name Fusil Raffles still makes his 2nd at Cheltenham seem painful and he starts favourite here and looks a big player. Already a group one winner and proven on the ground and the trip he looks sure to go well if he has recovered from Cheltenham. Hitman was failed to win in two tries at this level and for me, he has a bit to find with Fusil and my speed ratings suggest the same thing. The Shunter was a big story at the festival winning a bonus, but this is a big step up in class and he only has one place from three Grade 2 starts so the step to Grade 1 looks a big one.

Eldorado Allen has never tried the trip and like Hitman only has a place from two Grade 1 tries and he looks held by the former on their Sandown run, whilst Protektorat has failed to win seven races above Class 2. Umbrigado is another that must prove up to this class, but he is unbeaten in 2021 and makes a fair amount of each-way appeal and the same can probably be said for Phoenix Way although his pulled up in the Hitman and Eldorado Allen race is a lot to turn around.

I am going with Fusil Raffles to make amends for Cheltenham, and I might have a bit each way on Umbrigado on value grounds.

Doom Bar Hurdle (14.20)

The odds-on favourite Monmiral is unbeaten it is hard to pick holes in him from a form perspective, but Adagio is already a grade 1 winner and he was 2nd in the Triumph, so on paper, he has better form, on my speed ratings he has a better figure, and he is a bigger price, so on value grounds, I would rather be with him than the favourite.

Fiveandtwenty steps up in class but he has been winning, but I cannot ouch John Locke who only really brings flat form into this and surely needs the front two to be well below par to win this. 

Paros would need a big step forward and Carlos Felix would need to leave his only other hurdle form miles behind to get involved here.

I think Fiveandtwenty each way if you can get someone to pay three places is a decent bet, but I am just going to stick with the proven form of Adagio.

Betway Bowl (14.50)

Can the Tiger make his owners look stupid by winning this? Personally, not for me in this kind of race, I would be happy to cheer him in if he does, but his heroics at Cheltenham surprised me and I am not sure he can repeat them here.

The Gold Cup form would suggest Aso should not be beating Native River and the King George form would suggest that Waiting Patiently has the measure of Clan Des Obeaux. Clan has not won since the 2019 King George and could not get by Secret Investor last time, whilst Waiting Patiently has not won since 2018. Both are too short for me albeit that a win for either would be no surprise.

I would love to back Mister Fisher as I really fancied him at Cheltenham where jumping errors were probably the cause of his downfall, but he is up in trip. Clondaw Castle is up in class here and Real Steel does not have much form since joining Nicholls. Militarian looks outclassed.

It all leaves me with Native River in the hope that he gets to bounce out and get into a rhythm here as this would suit him better than the Gold Cup where they went too quick for him before he stayed on late. I may not resist a small bet on Mister Fisher as well just because on his day he can look pretty special.

Aintree Hurdle (15.25)

I know that De Bromhead and Blackmore is the dream ticket but when the favourite has been beaten on his only Grade 1 start and is unproven on the ground, you are safe to assume I will look elsewhere, and I will start with the second favourite who has beaten him the two times they have raced in the past. Abacadabras fell early in the Champion but he is a proven Grade 1 winner and looks the one to beat here.

McFabulous must have a chance but like Jason The Militant, he looks short enough in this company and next in the market is Brewinupastorm who has won his two starts since coming back to hurdles. He is another that might win, but I just prefer others at the prices.

Song for Someone and Silver Streak were in a photo at Cheltenham in December and what you think of their form depends on what you think of Goshen’s 22 length beating of the former at Wincanton. I can see a case for both but would not be confident as to which one. If you fancy one, I would stick the other in a reverse forecast!

Ballyandy was miles behind Silver Streak at Christmas, Buzz is unproven at this level, Not So Sleepy can be in and out but did beat Silver Streak in the Champion and Millers Bank would need to improve a lot. 

That leaves me with Buveur D’Air. Two years ago, he would have been pretty much odds on for this but after a bad injury, we only have one race to judge him on. You would have to forgive him for not being fit for that one and there is plenty of juice in the price of an eight times Grade 1 winner here.

Buveaur D’Air each way for me with a saver on Abacadabras.

Foxhunters Chase (16.05)

Billaway was 2nd at Cheltenham and is favourite here and he holds Latenightpass, Mighty Stowaway and Ravished on that run. Cat Tiger looks to hold Tango De Juilley, Killaro Boy and Clondaw Westie on collateral form. Sametagal is fancied but was beaten at odds on last time and Some Man is unplaced on three tries left-handed.

I do not have a view on the others so at the prices it is Cat Tiger each way for me.

Red Rum Handicap Chase (16.40)

This looks wide open. Destrier is favourite and whilst his form on this ground is better than on soft, it would be a big form improvement if he won this, and I am happy to ignore possible plot horses like him. All Getaway Trumps winning (bar one race) has been on good ground. On The Slopes was 4th at Cheltenham but that was his first place in four tries at this level. Zanza was pulled up there after being hampered but he had already made a mistake and fell the time before so he would not be reliable.

Frero Banbou is unexposed and could be anything whilst Moon Over Germany won this two years ago and may have been lined up for it again. I can pick holes in the profiles of several of the others, although Gaelik Coast is one I would give a chance to.

Tricky race, but I will side with Moon Over Germany. He is proven under the conditions has a smart claimer and might have been laid out for this. I will save with Gaelik Coast in case he hasn’t!

Mares NH Flat Race (17.15)

A field packed with previous winners, guess which one is best! Good luck!

Eileendover is odds on and that cannot be value when you are guessing. Elle Est Belle was third in the Cheltenham Bumper is the only other runner with the favourite to have won at listed class. She must be the value here surely?

Heartbreak is top of my speed figures and won her only start easily and she is 33-1 so I will take her and Elle Est Belle against the field!