It ain't what you think Bro.

Nearly 18 months ago, I was RAILING about the hidden costs of building up such a fast growing economy. I used my own experience as an indicator, and many people laughed at me, saying that I had no idea what I was talking about.

Well, here we are. Yes, we have a "health issue" driving the markets BUT:

Oil imploded. That is not a health related issue, it's actually very simple. The present administration went off on a drill everywhere and get domestic oil going. It was sold in the guise of getting off the foreign oil marketplace and America First. The oil companies jumped in with both feet and before you know it, they did precisely what companies do. They borrowed heavily to pay for the upfront costs to get into the free for all. Today, we have a surplus of oil and a boatload of debt. The oil companies, trying to raise cash from Wall Street is finding that it doesn't matter your cash flow volume when you're saddled with huge debt service. In response, the market sold off oil, and oil stocks plummeted. The result is, the oil companies now need to be bailed out because they have no cash to continue.

Now Trump comes with an oil bailout and an even bigger problem. He borrowed heavily (over 1 Trillion last year and this year) to grow the nations economy. Where are the dollars for a bailout going to come from? There is nothing in the budget for this, and Congress is loath to provide bailout dollars in the face of such debt.

Enter State Actors Russia and our supposed ally Saudi Arabia. They realize the situation and see it for what it is, an opportunity to drive us back out of the oil business on the scale we have been. So they've dumped a couple of million barrels of oil on the market, further driving the value of oil per barrel down.

Net Net, without a bailout, there will be a tremendous loss in the oil sector AND, in the run-up to that, we'll lose our market advantage and then the Saudi's and the Russians will slow down their process, bring demand ahead of supply, and drive the cost of oil through the roof.

WE will pay the price at the pump, and we'll have no way to regain our market advantage.

This is precis what I warned about back then, the "perfect storm" of fast growth, high debt and falling prices. It's a mess, and while you're cheering a few pennies off right now, get ready for the worst.

This can easily snowball into a full blown recession as virtually every sector of American Commerce is heavily in debt. That's the deal. Unusually fast growth requires huge amounts of cash to service the pace. If cash flow and profits fall short of projections for ANY reason at all, you're backwards and then out of business.

You can ALWAYS grow fast, it's an easy thing to do, it just usually results in exactly what is happening right now.

You can live in the unreal world of trying to believe that this is all virus driven, and that's the way it's being sold, but the TRUTH is, we've got the the chickens coming home to roost, and we've spent all the feed money on building a bigger hen house.

This is the Trump model across his entire career. He covers one financial disaster by creating some new pig in a poke, selling it to a new bank and borrowing again only to falter when the run-up is too fast.

Economics 101 here folks.