It Ain’t Over When It’s Over

The time to plan for a crisis is before it happens. The time to plan for the end of a crisis is during the crisis. During the current shutdown, businesses should be actively planning for what happens when the COVID-19 crisis ends.

Today there are hundreds of millions of people throughout the world who are anxious about both their physical and financial health. Everyone hopes the COVID-19 crisis will end soon so life can get back to normal. Unfortunately, when this crisis is over, it will be many months before normalcy returns for most businesses and individuals.  

The shutdown of businesses occurred very rapidly. Ramping down the business was relatively easy. Governmental leaders declared an emergency, enforced mandates, and businesses closed. Emergency pay policies were implemented. Windows were boarded up. Foodstuffs were donated. Doors were locked. And people went home and hunkered down.

But when the crisis is over, ramping back up will not be as easy. And it may cause even greater distress for many people. Most workers, and perhaps even some business leaders, have a false assumption that as soon as a victory over the virus is declared, their businesses will open back up and customers will return as before. Everything will reset and normal life will continue. Employees will return to work, wages will again be paid, schools will reopen, and every-day-life will be as it was before the crisis. But this definitely is not the case.

When the crisis is over, it will not be over for your customers

When the sanctions are lifted, the previous levels of business will not return immediately. It may take many months for the volume to build back up. Customers will be cautiously optimistic. They will make their spending decisions and travel plans based on their confidence in their financial and physical security. Until their past-due bills are paid and their cash-reserve restored, customers may be hesitant to spend their discretionary income. They may also be hesitant to patronize businesses in previously infected areas. Business leaders who think people will rush out of their homes and fill the hotels, bars, restaurants, and tourist destinations once the sanctions are lifted may be greatly disappointed. There may be an initial influx of customers due to a pent-up need to celebrate, but then the reality of the situation will quickly set in. The biggest reality of all will be that many of your customers will still be unemployed.

When the crisis is over, it will not be over for your employees

Workers who thought they would immediately return to work once the crisis ends may be shocked when they are not called back to work the moment the sanctions end. Wise business leaders make decisions based on customer volume and they staff-up accordingly. They recall staff slowly, carefully, and deliberately. Since they don’t expect business levels to instantly return to normal, wise leaders won’t restore everything to pre-crisis levels immediately. They will open franchises, venues, hotel rooms, store locations, business units, outlets, and departments incrementally as customer volume rises.

It could take months before most employees return to work, and some may never be recalled to their previous position because their job has been eliminated out of a new sense of caution. As business leaders take time to analyze their business during the shutdown, they may decide to close poor-performing business units or shut down the production of non-profitable products. They may also use this opportunity to streamline processes or implement self-serve stations to reduce their labor costs.

Consequently, many employees will be stunned when they realize their crisis continues. Although workers may have tacitly accepted the imposed sanctions to stem the COVID-19 virus, they may not be so understanding when their employer is not as anxious as they are to get them back to work. Business leaders can expect an increase in employee distress, grievances, dissatisfaction, and challenges as employees are rehired incrementally, are redeployed to positions other than the ones they left, or employees find their positions have been eliminated. Employees who remain furloughed will become distressed when emergency pay policies implemented during the COVID-19 crisis are suspended. The uncertainty of this new crisis will cause additional panic and suffering that could have a lasting impact on the morale and productivity of employees.

When the crisis is over, it will not be over for your business

Certainty brings peace while uncertainty causes distress. Before the crisis, there was relative certainty. Businesses could forecast customer volume and assume overall profitability based on carefully crafted marketing plans and analytical financial proformas. Manufacturing companies knew how many units to produce according to well-thought-out sales projections. Shelves were stocked and inventories acquired to meet known customer demand. Staffing models were implemented and employees hired according to business needs. Strategic and operational plans were developed by forming logical conclusions from high-probability assumptions.

Now all previous assumptions are nullified. Marketing plans are no longer valid. Financial projections are wrong. Product demand may be down. Inventories may have been depleted. Anticipated staffing needs may be completely different based on the new reality that will arise once the COVID-19 crisis has ended. Consequently, business leaders need to completely reassess all of their business models. They certainly need to recreate their strategic and operational plans. They may even have to redefine how they conduct their business in the future to immunize themselves against a similar crisis.

Restarting your business will be much more complicated than shutting it down. It will require making business decisions based upon your answers to a long list of questions. Knowing the right questions to ask, and answering them as thoughtfully and fully as possible, will determine how quickly your business will return to profitability.

Throughout this crisis, I’ve used my patented Strategic Logics? model to analyze the nine strategic elements of every business and anticipate the questions that ought to be asked and answered before you reopen your business. My list currently contains over 150 questions. Not every question applies to every business, but each question ought to cause you to pause as you analyze your business going forward. Here are just a few of the questions you will need to answer as you develop your reopening critical path plan:

• What products are core to our business and critical to our future success? Are there any products or services that we shouldn't resurrect? In what order should we bring our products back online?
• Which customers should we target first to generate revenue the fastest? Are there any customer niches we should no longer target? Which products will appeal most to our target customers?
• How can we differentiate ourselves to make us more competitively attractive to our target customers? Are there competitors who may not survive the crisis whose business or customers we can acquire?
• What marketing messaging will appeal to our target customers and cause them to make a buy-decision now?
• Do we need to adjust our pricing to better attract customers after the crisis? What can we realistically expect for our revenue projections for the rest of the year?
• Do we need to make adjustments to our quality or service levels as we incrementally reopen our business? Where does quality matter and where does it not matter?
• Can we use technology better to reduce our labor costs? Where can we implement self-serve options instead of using staff?
• How can we redeploy our staff to better serve our customers? Our there job classifications, levels of management, or departments that are no longer needed?
• Which of our staff should we bring back, in what sequence, and at what time? Are there more job classifications where people can work from home? How will we communicate with our employees to reduce stress and maintain morale?

The current shutdown offers the perfect opportunity for your leadership team to meet (by video conferencing, if necessary) to define your strategic priorities and develop your reopening plan. In many cases, individual plans will need to be developed for each department, outlet, subsidiary, branch, or business unit of your business. Having been a critical path consultant for many business openings, particularly large casino and hotel projects, I encourage you to develop a well-thought-out mini-critical path plan now so your business is positioned for success when you reopen.

If you need assistance developing or implementing your plan, or you want access to my growing list of critical reopening questions, please call me at 702-592-6431 so we can discuss your unique challenges. §

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Mac McIntire is the president of Innovative Management Group, a Las Vegas-based training and consulting firm specializing in strategic visioning and alignment, organizational effectiveness, management development, quality improvement, customer service, and teamwork. He can be reached at 702-592-6431 or e-mail [email protected]. His website is www.imglv.com