Aid on Ice, Friends in Flight, and Hybrid War Goes Unanswered.

USAID froze support to Ukraine—so what? A lot.

The U.S. has frozen nearly all foreign aid (except military assistance) to almost every country for 90 days. During this period, aid programs will be reassessed and either restarted—or not. This abrupt halt to commitments is a harsh approach, giving organizations no time to adapt, diversify funding sources, or organize fundraising efforts to continue their work. It’s as if a company with a long-term contract suddenly decides, with just a few days' notice, to terminate the agreement, forcing an entire team to shift to a new client that doesn’t yet exist—because they trusted the original client to uphold its commitments.

USAID is not just about "soft values." Since the start of the full-scale war, it has provided Ukraine with $2.6 billion in humanitarian aid, $5 billion in development assistance, and over $30 billion in direct budget support. This funding has helped rebuild schools after Russian attacks, finance bomb shelters, supply hospitals with advanced medical equipment, and much more. It has literally meant mattresses for refugees, heating for schools, and restoring electricity in hospitals. No matter how hard we try, replacing this aid won’t happen as quickly as it was "reconsidered."

One issue may be public perception. A Brookings survey found that Americans believe foreign aid makes up 25% of the federal budget, when in reality, it accounts for only about 1%.

At or NGO Heroiam Slava, we are actively reaching out to our partners to identify the most critical needs and provide as much support as possible—thanks to our incredible donors. As an example, the house of the mother of our main and long-term charity partner Elena, from “Station Kharkiv” was hit by Russian gliding bomb. One of the US programs was supposed to replace the windows in big apartment building in Kharkiv, and now the program is on hold…And it is just one example of thousands.

Another day, another hybrid attack

We've almost lost count of how many cables and pipelines Russian ships have cut. These disruptions come in various forms—whether it’s a Chinese ship “accidentally” dropping a cable, a fishing boat lingering suspiciously around pipelines, or a Norwegian vessel with a Russian crew. This is precisely why it’s called “hybrid war” or “asymmetric warfare.” Ironically, in our case, "asymmetric" means Russia is at war while we respond with nothing.

Increasing NATO’s presence in the Baltic Sea is a positive step, but it only addresses the aftermath. For Russia, these consequences are minor. An old vessel gets confiscated—so what? A Russian crew is arrested—so what? Meanwhile, the financial damage to the victims runs into billions. Cut cables not only result in massive repair costs but also lead to higher taxes and tariffs for the citizens of countries affected, while Russia bears none of the burdens.

Russia will only stop when the price of aggression becomes unbearable. Every time damage is inflicted, frozen Russian assets should be used at five times the cost for compensation. Or, for every severed cable, an additional set of long-range missiles should be aimed at Russia’s oil refineries. Putin isn’t deterred by strength—he’s deterred by weakness. Until we start imposing real consequences on Russia, it will continue waging this unanswered asymmetric war against the West.

What do Ukrainians expect from Trump?

According to recent surveys conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 45% of respondents in Ukraine believe that Donald Trump’s election as president would "bring peace closer," while only 14% think the opposite. However, the complexity of negotiations is further heightened by the fact that more than half of Ukrainians are not willing to see the war end through territorial concessions.

Any ceding of territory would require a nationwide referendum and the support of the majority of the population, followed by the approval of more than two-thirds of the members of the Verkhovna Rada. Both of these scenarios are unlikely, which is why negotiations with President Donald Trump could inevitably result in some form of a "Minsk 3" agreement—unless Trump takes a decisive stance by rapidly providing Ukraine with all necessary weaponry and Ukraine commits to a large-scale mobilization. But what about “drill, baby, drill”? That would only work if OPEC cooperates, and even then, it would take time to impact global oil prices, restructure logistics, and renegotiate agreements.

And in whom do they trust?

In December, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KMIS) conducted another survey on how much Ukrainians trust various institutions.

Unsurprisingly, Ukrainians place the highest trust in their defenders—the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to enjoy over 90% public support, reaching as high as 96% in previous years.

Following the military, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) is the second most trusted institution, with 54% of respondents expressing confidence in it, mostly due to successful military special operations on land and at sea.

According to KMIS, before the full-scale war, 27% of Ukrainians trusted the president; during the first year of the war, this figure surged to 84% and towards the end of the third year of the large-scale war, it decreased to 45%. However, in a separate survey conducted the same month, where the question was phrased specifically as "Do you trust President Volodymyr Zelenskyy?", 52% of respondents answered yes, while 39% said they did not.

The least trusted institutions in Ukraine are the courts and the prosecutor’s office, with only 12% and 9% trust levels, respectively. This is a serious issue, as judicial reform is considered one of the most critical reforms Ukrainians believe must be fully implemented. The next least trusted institution is the Verkhovna Rada (parliament), which is trusted by 15% of Ukrainians, while the government fares slightly better, with 20% trust.

Friends are dumping Russia

Russia appears to be losing the support of even its last remaining allies. Not completely losing, but key partners like China and North Korea seem to be “politely withdrawing.”

The once-reliable supply of North Korean troops—a crucial source of manpower for Russia—seems to be drying up. According to FT's sources - U.S. and Ukrainian officials, nearly half of the approximately 11,000 foreign troops have been killed in the Kursk oblast, prompting the withdrawal of North Korean fighters from the frontline. Even North Korea is now reluctant to send more soldiers to fight in what some see as an "unholy war."

Meanwhile, China is also showing signs of distancing itself. Following new sanctions targeting Russia's shadow fleet, Chinese ports are reportedly turning away Russian oil tankers. A decline in Chinese oil purchases would deal a significant blow to Russia, which is running out of even its situational allies.

To Kharkiv, with love

We're happy to share that 30 Estonian-made KrattWorks drones and two vehicles filled with essential supplies (including a generator, tools, and more) have been successfully delivered to Kharkiv, and the delivery team has returned safely.

More specifically, these supplies have reached the Spartan unit on the Kharkiv frontline.

A heartfelt thank you to every donor of Heroiam Slava NGO (www.heroiamslava.org)—this mission was only possible because of your generous support.

A special thanks to Heroiam Slava co-founder Jaak Ennuste and the dedicated team—T?nu Grünberg, Mattias Luha, and Roman Starapopov—who personally delivered the drones and vehicles from Tallinn to Kharkiv.