If AIB GOs Yr'25 -27 Contango changes to Backwardation, will it mean longer-term bearish sentiment for REC price in Europe?!

A narrowing price spread between calendar?years '25, '26, and '27 for European?AIB GOs may signal the current contango changing into the backwardation market curve. That?would dramatically change the current 2024 bearish outlook to at least 2 more years ahead... at least in my eyes... Pls, have a look by yourself:

Just for a reminder here is some public info sorted out in the correct order:

SUPPLY-SIDE:

Vintage 2023

• 15% better hydro generation in 2023 vs 2022 in the EU;
• 10% or more above long-term trends solar irradiance in 2023;
• EU installs record 56 GW of solar in 2023; 13% stronger (55 TWh) generation in the EU from wind in 2023 (475TWh) vs 2022 (420TWh);
• EU built 17 GW of new wind farms in 2023; +7TWh of a new GOs supply from Serbia in 2023;

Vintage 2024

• 13% stronger hydro situation in Q1’24 vs Q1’23 (EU hydro generation Jan’24 (33.41TWh) vs Jan’23 (29.67 TWh);
• Significant solar production increase in 2024 (Europe’s solar power generation to grow 50 TWh in 2024 as Germany doubles down on PV);
• The International Energy Agency estimates Europe will create 23GW in new wind annually between 2024-28.
• New SEE markets in AIB (such as GR, BG, AL) and others in CEE

DEMAND-SIDE:

Vintage 2023

• 6% down, electricity demand in the European Union's industrial sector fell by an estimated 6% in 2023 after a similar decline in 2022;
• 3.1% drop in 2022 Electricity demand in the European Union declined for the second consecutive year in 2023;
• 3.2% in 2023, year-on-year decline in EU demand meant that it dropped to levels last seen two decades ago (IEA 2024);
• UK stopped imports of GOs from Europe as of April 2023.

Vintage 2024

• UK imports of GOs from Europe not to resume in 2024 EU electricity demand growth is forecast to rise by an average 2.3% in 2024-26. (no signs of recovery spotted, yet).

CONCLUSION

More Supply & Less Demand = Bearish price trend!