AI – The Trouble With The Curves
Mark Rapier CMAS, ALC
Trusted Guide | Author | Lifelong Learner | Corporate Diplomat | Certified M&A Specialist | Certified Life Coach
Today's second topic is a review of ‘The Demon of Unrest’ by Erik Larson
Word Count: About 1,700 words, with an approximate reading time of 7 to 9 minutes. ?Please share your thoughts in the comments.
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Every week, there are hundreds of articles about AI.? The topics range from technical capabilities, financial markets and investments, the limitations of AI, and the need for effective regulation.? Virtually all these articles fail to recognize that AI exists in two distinct lifestyle curves.
The Change curve describes the lifecycle of any major change.? New ideas are shared, and excitement builds as people see the potential.? The more impactful the change, the greater the enthusiasm.
When the hard work of adoption begins, disillusionment begins to set in.? As the work required is understood and the limitations come into focus, we enter into the Trough of Despair.? This is the first true test of the new idea.? If the cost and effort required exceeds the benefits of the initial excitement, the idea dies here.
Ideas that survive the journey through the trough, experimentation begins to take hold, and practical solutions are developed and implemented.?
The concept of the change curve has been around for a long time and can be applied to any type of change.
The S Curve best depicts the other, and in this case, more important, lifecycle.? First presented by Charles Handy in The Second Curve , the S curve focuses on generational change.
Artificial Intelligence is not new.? Robotic Process Automation (RPA) and Machine Learning have been around for years.? Alexa and Siri are sophisticated examples that we use today.? Generative AI represents a new phase in the evolution of AI.? What people are grappling with now is how to take advantage of what is available while at the same time trying to predict what will be possible in the future.
The Smartphone Example
The history of smartphones is worth remembering as we try to chart our individual AI plans.? In 1996, Nokia released the 9000 Communicator, one of the earliest smartphones.? In the 2000s, Blackberry moved smartphones to the next generation.
Also, in 1996, Plam released the first personal digital assistant (PDA).? These devices matured over the next decade.
Then came Apple.? In 2007, the first iPhone was released.? Combining smartphone and PDA capabilities, this represented a second curve.? The previous generation was no longer relevant.? Another intriguing aspect of the story is that none of the 1990s-era innovators is that none of those firms is relevant today.
The Trough of Despair
Many things must be resolved as we work through this change phase.? Data privacy needs to be protected.? Copyrighted data must be controlled so only those with permission can access data for their models.? Most importantly, the proper rules and regulations must be implemented.? People who don't follow the rules must be quickly identified and shut down.? Cybercriminals who use AI-generated data or images to demean people, incite violence, or claim false endorsements need to be punished.? The penalties need to be swift and severe enough to deter bad behavior before it happens.
Generative AI Is A Second Curve
The possibilities are exciting.? The effort required will be huge.? Over the next decade, the capabilities will likely transform again.?
What we need to guard against is overelying on AI.?
This Wearable AI Notetaker Will Transcribe Your Meetings—and Someday, Your Entire Life | Wired ? This use of AI is problematic.? You cannot and should not record a conversation without the permission of all participants.? If the meeting discusses confidential or proprietary information, sending it to the cloud to be summarized is problematic and could violate data privacy laws.
Several companies (Adobe, Jasper) are advertising AI assistants that will write your marketing materials for you.? They are fine for first drafts, but data must be checked, conclusions must be confirmed, and the message must be personalized.?
As I wrote in a previous newsletter , AI will make us stupid if we get lazy.
Related Articles
Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence, 2024 | Gartner ? (The detail is only available to Gartner clients; I am not one.)
Nvidia stock slips even after earnings top Wall Street estimates and demand for AI chips surges | AP
Andromeda | Dust : A short sci-fi film about the distant future of AI.
领英推荐
Book Review: The Demon of Unrest by Erik Larson
The Demon of Unrest is the history of the events between Abraham Lincoln's election on November 6, 1860, his inauguration on March 4, 1861, and the shots fired on Fort Sumter on April 12, 1861. ?Three broad themes stood out for me.
First was the complete abdication by President James Buchanan of his Presidential responsibilities.? It was apparent that the crisis was about to come.? All Buchanan did was work to ensure it did not happen on his watch.? His goal was to have Lincoln deal with the issues as if that would preserve his legacy.? What happened was the opposite.? On many lists, he is rated as the worst president in American history.
In the decade preceding the Civil War, many people openly considered "slavery to be a morally correct and beneficial institution." An Atlanta newspaper wrote, "We regard every man in our midst an enemy to the institutions of the South who does not boldly declare that he or she believes African slavery to be a social, moral, and political blessing." Indeed, the secession conventions all specifically cited slavery as their primary grievance.? My wife had lunch with some friends a few weeks ago, and one person tried to justify slavery because people learned skills.? I am always amazed at how easily some people can rewrite history in their minds.
The unknown history for me was the story of Edmund Ruffin.? Ruffin spent over a decade agitating for secession in defense of slavery.? He never held a position of political authority.? Ruffin traveled across the South advocating his cause.? In today's world, he would be an influencer.? During several of the secession conventions, he was given a seat of honor to observe the proceedings.? Harriet Beecher Stowe was the much more famous influencer who supported abolition.?
There are many interesting bits of history in the book.
What I'm Up To
In support of Dyopath, I attended ACG's Capital Connections Conference in Cleveland.? We shared our capabilities to support private equity firms on their journey to increase the value of and grow their portfolio companies.
I am still without new glasses, so my current reality is eye fatigue and limited screen time.? The cataract surgery improved my vision but did not correct it completely.
Each month our neighborhood holds a golf outing.? Every September, I work with one of my friends to turn the event into a fundraising.? Last year, we raised almost $2,000 for our charities.? FSHD is a form of muscular dystrophy that affected my friend's late wife and his daughters.? My charity is The Walk for Alzheimer's.? That disease took my mother-in-law last year and will take my father-in-law at some point.? He has been in a memory care home for over four years.
Chips and Salsa: Snack-sized news and posts
People who embrace the hard work that nobody sees are the ones who become successful.? Take the time to read everything in detail.? Check out the footnotes.? Do your own research to confirm the findings others are sharing.? Most of this will go unnoticed.? But, much like Kelce's practice in the summer, what you learn will show up when you need it most.
Or perhaps people are figuring out that stores like Dollar General do not offer value.
You may not like the politics.? But this statement on leadership is spot on.
"I'm talking about an era that started about a decade ago where there is some suggestion, warped I believe it to be, that the measure of the strength of a leader is based on who you beat down instead of where I believe most Americans are, which is to believe that the true measure of the strength of a leader is based on who you lift up."
Excellent data analytics and visualization.
Help employees embrace change in all areas.
I read articles like this one because I am old.
Dig deep to understand.
Good news is out there.
Science Rules!
Quotes
"Tell me what you pay attention to and I will tell you who you are."
- José Ortega y Gasset
"A great number of people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices."
- William James
"If you only read the books that everyone else is reading, you can only think what everyone else is thinking."
- Haruki Murakami
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You can order The Leader With A Thousand Faces on the Recommended Reading Page of my website.
My goal is to make this newsletter as interesting and valuable as possible. ?Please share your thoughts and suggestions for improvement. ?If there are specific topics in leadership you would like me to focus on in future issues, please send them my way.