AI Strategy: A Primer of Cyber Diplomacy
INTRODUCTION
The advent of ChatGPT has catapulted discussions of the potential and impacts of next-generation Artificial Intelligence (AI) at every level of society.? Nation-state decision-makers have struggled with the non-trivial questions of “what would AI policy and strategy look like?” “What would be the central tenets of such policy and strategy?”, and “what would the desired strategic outcomes of such artifacts be?” Equally relevant are the challenges of constructing such policy and strategy when faced with the uncertain nature of the coming technological evolution.
It is not a detraction to say that nation-state decision-makers are ill-equipped to deal with the rapid evolution of technology, especially in the realm of AI and Algorithms.? Professor Yuval Noah Harari, a noted researcher at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem on epic historical trends specific to human beings, conveyed the critical insight that - we cannot precisely predict what the world will look like in 2050. Still, we know it will be different from the world we know today.
What is almost certain is at the center of our future world is the new nexus of Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Algorithms, and the Cognitive Neuroscience of Decision-Making.
THE WORLD TODAY
There are numerous impetuses for policy, security, and economic discussions at the strategic level around the coming next generation of Artificial Intelligence, yet the impetuses are not all technology-centric. Equally important to consider are the massive changes to the world order, we are now witnessing and other changes that are predicted as “likely” to occur; these include:
Perhaps the most important strategic occurrence that necessitates strategic policy and strategy discussions around AI is the shift away from globalism by the United States.? Our modern, globalized world is the product of America’s cold war strategy, which ushered in an unparalleled period of economic prosperity - that time is now ending.? This strategic policy shift by Americans has been advanced by generations of U.S. Presidents, beginning with Bill Clinton and currently by Joe Biden.? Globalism is no longer required with the demise of the Soviet Union, and will now revert to the nation-state, geo regions, and alliances.? Arguably the best example of this are NAFTA and the trading relationships of the countries of the Northern American Hemisphere, the European Union , and NATO as a military exemplar.
The success of a nation-state in the decades to come will hinge on its ability to provide basic goods and services to the people and access to hard and soft technology.
WAR & SUPPLY CHAINS
If economics is the most important reason to discuss AI policy and strategy, then geo-global conflict is almost without debate the second. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have exposed the “chinks in the armor” of global supply chains that often function on Just-in-Time (JiT) delivery systems. A great powers war between China and the United States warrants discussion as a dimension of AI and technological accessibility as it would profoundly affect almost every country.
Is a Chinese vs. America war inevitable? Since the future is unknown, the only thoughtful answer is “No.” The more relevant question for decision-makers may be, “is a Chinese vs. America war likely or highly likely?”? Here the informed answer is undoubtedly “Yes.” ? This is because the antecedents of this conflict are almost solely the making of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its General Secretary appointed for life, Xí Jìnpíng.
China faces intractable problems in the form of population structure, the birth rate, and its economic structure.? China is a nation that has peeked in terms of population (demographics) and exports (economics) – the very foundations of the modern Chinese state are now cracking.? We can accurately model the Chinese population decline and the rise in labor costs coupled with its reliance on exports and conclude that in 10-15 years, the Chinese economic model is highly likely to collapse.
The United States’ strategy economic strategy for dominance in the 21st Century is predicated on the belief that global economic and military dominance will be founded on technology. Technological dominance is itself is predicated on the ability to mass produce and innovate microchips of varying degrees of sophistication (delineated as low, medium, and high-end chips)
Realizing that conflict may be imminent, Chinese belligerence and refusal to be a good faith actor on the world stage, the United States has limited initiated economic warfare against the Chinese and placed severe limitations on China’s ability to purchase microchips and the equipment to manufacture microchips.? This is the equivalent of a death blow to China as the nation has never been able to produce finished chips or the equipment to manufacture medium and high-complexity chips.? The likelihood that the Chinese Communist Party understands the situation that they are in is very high, and they have concluded that unless radical action is taken, they will simply wither over time and be a fraction of the global power they are today.? War is arguably the most prominent of the few options they have.
Every government and large organization should today be performing a study of the possibilities of AI within their domains and how to leverage the potential it brings to the benefit of their people. The realities of the changing global landscape and an actionable strategy created must bind these discussions.
THE BENEFITS OF AI POLICY & STRATEGY
Discussing AI often rapidly moves to the negative, corrupted by visions of “terminator” like machines, or all-knowing, all-seeing super-intelligent systems which relegate humans to slaves, or massive job loss as the inevitable outcome.? As a scientist, I will state that very few things surrounding the creation by man are “inevitable.”
In constructing cyber diplomacy with an AI element, we should keep at the forefront of thought that tremendous good can come from our work.? Ensuring active participation in the development, adoption, and access to AI can bring positive benefits in numerous domains.? This is particularly evident in medical care delivered at speed and scale in ways that are fully imaginable today.? AI doctors, automated, portable surgery centers, and 3D printing of medicines and even organs in remote locations. Flying electric car ambulances and a new next generation of wearable devices will gather dozens of bio-metric readings and, coupled with AI, will detect problems in the human body before the person is ever aware.? Detection and treatment of diseases, easily accessible medications, and rapid treatment of early-stage illnesses will greatly improve and extend the lives of millions of people, even in the poorest regions of the world.? And this does not even touch on the economic benefits AI holds for people with little more than a cell phone and high-speed connectivity.
CONCLUSION
The economic opportunities for those who can configure, access, and incorporate next-generation AI into their operational models are limited only by the imagination.? What is clear is that failing to provide access to AI will hamstring the ability of individuals and corporations to compete in markets or benefit from advances in services delivered at speed and scale. And while access is critical, so is awareness and training; this has been proven true in the realm of cyber security.? Those in poor countries must include mechanisms to empower individuals to understand the power of these new tools and allow them to innovate within their businesses.? As globalism declines and nation-states must become more reliant on themselves, their hemispheres and partner nations’ access to AI can facilitate economic growth and prosperity.
For a deeper conversation on AI policy and strategy at the government and corporate levels, please contact the experts at CyberDiplomat.
About the Author
Dr. Marty Trevino , Chief Scientist/Strategic Advisor
Dr. Martin Trevino is a Visual Analytics and Human Factors Executive. He has worked on next-generation Visual Analytics and Human Factors (Neuroscience & Cognitive influencing how we make risky data-informed decisions. While all analytics efforts approach their task from a design perspective, more needs to be understood about precisely how the brain functions concerning data and high-risk decisions - this is where Neuroscience and Cognitive Psychology come into play. Dr. Martin is also a Visiting Professor at the National Defence University, Washington DC, and has worked with public and private stakeholders on issues related to Cybersecurity.
Contact via LinkedIn: https://www.dhirubhai.net/in/dr-martin-trevino-b26430151/