AI, self driving cars, and the end of the world
The beginning of the end of the world, as we know it, is just a few years away. Let me tell you why.
A revolutionary change in speech recognition
I have a hard to pronounce family name - Balajewicz (pronounced as 'bawayevich'). As a result, the "hey Google", "Call Margaret Balajewicz" just never worked. I had to pronounce the family name incorrectly to get it to work. But something changed just a few years ago - my phone started to understands my name properly pronounced AND what was really freaky, it started to respond to me with the proper pronunciation : "OK, Calling Margaret Balajewicz" ... (btw, try "ok google, call my wife" and see what happens!)
That is the result of latest advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) via deep learning and artificial neural networks. What is all of this? well, if you are interested in details, I'd recommend this free MIT course; it is long but worth the time. I will just give a short short introduction.
<AI-short-intro>
Artificial Intelligence (AI), I assume needs no lengthy intro - a method / field of study / a computer program that exhibits a human-like intelligence; can predict outcomes, reasons based on facts and biases and makes decision to act this way or that. For example, a program that can figure out what is on a picture - is it dog? is it cat? etc.
Such programs "learn" from examples - this is called Machine Learning. You feed a program a set of pictures, with dogs and cats, and it learns to recognize dogs and cats. You can try to instruct the program how to do it, by telling it what to look for - for example, "IF has whiskers and pointy ears THEN it is a cat", or, a better way, called "Deep Learning", is to allow the program to figure out the attributes of dogs and cats by itself. You simply give it pictures that are labeled 'dog' or 'cat', and the program 'creates' an artificial neural network, which encodes a process of determining if this is a picture of a dog or cat. It figures out itself, the essential feature of the different animals.
END <AI-short-intro>
This mimics how humans learn. We also learn by example. Parents teach their children by labeling what the child sees - "this is a dog" and "this is a cat" etc. However, while a child just needs a few examples of a dog to be pretty good at recognizing dogs, deep learning algorithms need hundreds of thousands if not millions of examples before they can be relied upon. So this learning is similar to human learning in one way, but clearly different in some other way, which is why I call AI, our-slow-cousin. The key is, the algorithm works and can eventually recognize cat or dog with amazing accuracy. This is the technology that makes my phone able to understand my name and what make self-driving Tesla possible.
Such AI programs already analyze CT Scans to look for tumors and such. And while it takes millions of CT Scans to train such an algorithm, once learned, they don't forget. They don't have a bad day, no hangover-Mondays and they don't retire... Consider the cumulative experience of all the doctors in the world, all encoded in a program that can cheaply, quickly and reliably analyze x-rays, and continue to learn and improve indefinitely! THAT IS amazing!?
Consider if all cars were self driving. No drunk, teenage or Sunday drivers, no traffic caused by idiots-slowing-down-to-take-a-peak-at-the-accident-on-the-other-side-of-the-bloody-highway etc. For that alone, I'd hand in my license today!
Self driving cars, that continue to improve their driving skills constantly ( each car learns from all other cars in the network ) will become insanely safe and will change the world as we know it. What if you can read, work, or even sleep while you are commuting? No need for short-haul flights! Just get into your Tesla in Toronto in the evening, and arrive in Montreal by morning, all rested and all. But this also means no need for motels and food along the way...
Also, no need for parking lots in downtown area as your car will drop you off at work, and then earn its keep serving as an autonomous taxi (sorry taxi drivers). Or perhaps it will run your errands - pickup up your dry-cleaning, shopping and come back home to drive a family member to the dentist, before it comes back to get you. How different would downtown core look then? How will that change work commutes?
OK, but are casualties in this utopia? Any collateral damage? There are at least some - fewer short-faul flights, no motels, no parking lots, no taxi drivers and their related jobs and income.
Worse, self driving trucks are already on the way accompanied by a of loss of 3.5 million well paying jobs, dominated by man without higher education.
AI is set to eliminate a lot more jobs than just truckers, taxi, parking lot and motel personnel. A LOT of well paying, white-collar jobs will be eliminated - lots of information about it out there, just bing-it.
The world as we know it, will be radically transformed. Some are calling for Universal Basic Income to take care of the unemployed. That is, we tax Tesla for every autonomous car it puts on our roads, and Amazon for every package it sends, and we use that money to give EVERYONE (employed or not) a Basic Income that should be enough to keep the lights on, and bellies full. The unemployed can live on that and be satisfied. Sounds reasonable? Many think it is.
But too many thinkers - usually techies in this area - seem to be completely oblivious of human psychology, or hold such extreme social-constructionist view of human beings , that they feel they will just be able to re-shape everyone to accept their new existence, even thrive in it.
They describe utopias where everyone is free to pursue what they love instead of being forced to do what they hate, just to survive. Some will do that, no doubt but the fact is, most people draw meaning from fulfilling their responsibilities, for providing for their families, from to succeeding professionally. Most of us, must be kept busy. Fact is, people need to be busy, need to work and draw a lot of meaning from it. I doubt that millions of unemployed young man will take to peaceful pursuits; there are still potential mates to impress and art is not everyone's thing.
What AI will create, will be a different world. I do not know what it will look like, but I am certain we'll have to supplement the basic income with extend sport seasons. I doubt it will be all rosy. I doubt it will be a peaceful garden with painters, musicians and flower people on every corner. The beginning of the end world, as we know it, is starting soon. Scary and exciting at the same time.