The AI Revolution and the Nuclear Arms Race: A Cautionary Tale of Power, Progress, and Human Nature

Here we are again. A macabre feeling runs down my spine as I experience, alongside my peers, history in the making.

As Mark Twain once said: "History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes", I can't help but feel a sense of déjà vu when I look at the breakneck speed of AI developments that has enveloped society over the past few months.

As the world witnesses the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, we are presented with unprecedented opportunities and potential irreversible dangers. The possibility of accelerating the development of new technologies, life-saving treatments, and further democratizing the digital world brings excitement and hope. However, we must also confront the looming possibility of irreparable damage as AI moves closer and closer to artificial general intelligence (AGI). The parallel between the AI revolution and the nuclear arms race of the 1940s forces us to ask ourselves: Are we destined to repeat the past and experience the wrath of short-termism?

This week I commented on the novel "Fathers and Sons" by Ivan Turgenev, and how human nature has not changed significantly over the centuries. Despite the progress of societies and its evolving values, humans are still driven by an innate desire for power, often manifesting itself as money and political influence. This unchanging aspect of human nature is evident in the current race to develop AI technologies.

Today, the pace of AI development raises concerns about the potential dangers it poses. This NYT article by Yuval Harari, Tristan Harris, and Aza Raskin highlights the risks associated with AI advancements, particularly in the realm of social media and large language models. It underscores the fact that if we continue with business as usual, AI capabilities may be used to gain profit and power, even if it inadvertently destroys the foundations of our society.

“Social media was the first contact between A.I. and humanity, and humanity lost. […] While very primitive, the A.I. behind social media was sufficient to create a curtain of illusions that increased societal polarization, undermined our mental health and unraveled democracy. […] Large language models are our second contact with A.I. We cannot afford to lose again. […] If we continue with business as usual, the new A.I. capacities will again be used to gain profit and power, even if it inadvertently destroys the foundations of our society.” - Yuval Harari, Tristan Harris, and Aza Raskin

The call for a pause on AI experiments beyond GPT-4 for at least six months that came to surface this week is a noble idea; however, the reality is that the cat is already out of the bag. If major global players such as Russia and China are unwilling to follow suit, the AI arms race will continue, just as the nuclear arms race did over 80 years ago.

The race to split the atom during WWII left an indelible mark on geopolitics and human history. From its tragic use on Japan in 1945, to today as we face threats from a bad actor with his finger on the button, we have not been able to fully repair the inadvertent damages of this scientific discovery. However, due to its irreversible risks, humanity has also been able to establish treaties and international organizations aimed at preventing nuclear catastrophes (even though the effectiveness of those are being put to test today). So, what can we learn from this experience to avoid the pitfalls of short-termism as we barge into, yet again, uncharted waters?

As we stand at the precipice of a new era, it is crucial to reflect on the lessons of the past and the implications of our actions today. The AI revolution is not just about innovation and progress; it is also a story of power, the unchanging human nature, and the potential for irreversible consequences.

And so, the question remains: How can we navigate the complexities of AI development while maintaining a focus on long-term thinking to avoiding the mistakes of the past?

Unfortunately, the current path we're on is leading us down a rather familiar road.