AI, Retail, & Software: Key Earnings to Watch This Week

Key Trends to Follow This Week

As we head into another pivotal earnings season, investors are focusing on consumer spending trends, cloud infrastructure growth, and margin recovery efforts across multiple sectors. This week, we’ll be watching five companies—Oracle, DICK’S Sporting Goods, Adobe, Dollar General, and Ulta Beauty—each offering unique insights into the economy’s current state and where markets may be headed next.

Key Themes to Watch

? AI-Driven Cloud Expansion – Oracle is at the forefront of AI cloud infrastructure, with investors looking for signs of sustained demand from enterprise customers.

? Retail Resilience vs. Margin Pressures – DICK’S Sporting Goods and Dollar General are navigating shifting consumer behavior, inventory challenges, and discretionary spending trends, while Ulta Beauty is focused on loyalty-driven sales growth in a softer beauty retail market.

? Software & AI Monetization – Adobe’s integration of generative AI into its Creative Cloud will be a key focal point as it seeks to maintain its high-margin subscription growth.

? Consumer Spending Trends & Holiday Impact – The holiday quarter is crucial for retail stocks, and results from DICK’S, Dollar General, and Ulta Beauty will provide important clues about consumer strength heading into 2025.

With cloud computing, retail demand, and AI monetization shaping the landscape, this week’s reports will set the tone for sector performance in the coming months. Let’s dive into what to expect from each company.

Oracle (ORCL) Q3 Fiscal 2025 Earnings Preview

Oracle is set to report its fiscal Q3 2025 earnings with a strong backdrop of cloud and AI-driven momentum. The company’s prior quarter demonstrated robust cloud growth, particularly in AI infrastructure, positioning it for continued strength. However, investors will be watching closely for signs of sustained demand in cloud services, enterprise software growth, and margin expansion as Oracle competes with larger hyperscalers in the AI race.

Key Areas to Watch:

1. Cloud Revenue Growth & AI Adoption

Oracle’s cloud services and license support revenue grew 12% YoY last quarter, while cloud infrastructure (IaaS) surged 52%—a key driver that could once again influence results. The company's partnerships, including its deal with Meta for AI Cloud Infrastructure, highlight Oracle’s competitive positioning. Investors will be looking for:

? Continued acceleration in AI-related cloud demand, particularly from enterprise clients.

? Updates on Oracle’s AI supercomputing capabilities, which played a major role in last quarter’s growth.

? Whether Oracle can sustain its momentum against competitors like AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud.

2. Enterprise Software & Database Business

While cloud dominates the growth story, Oracle’s on-premise software and database business remains a cash cow. Cloud application (SaaS) revenue rose 10% YoY in Q2, with Fusion Cloud ERP and NetSuite Cloud ERP each growing nearly 20%.

? Analysts will be keen to see if enterprise IT spending remains strong despite macroeconomic uncertainty.

? Any guidance on database growth, including the transition to cloud-based database offerings, will be critical.

3. Margins & Profitability

Oracle’s operating margin expanded to 30% GAAP and 43% non-GAAP in Q2, aided by pricing power and efficiency gains. However, AI infrastructure investments are capital-intensive, and investors will watch for:

? Cloud profitability trends, especially if AI-related expenses are rising faster than revenue.

? Any shifts in operating expense guidance, particularly in R&D and infrastructure spending.

4. Guidance & Market Outlook

Oracle raised its total cloud revenue outlook for fiscal 2025 last quarter, projecting over $25 billion. This quarter’s report will clarify:

? Whether that target remains intact or is revised higher/lower.

? Management’s commentary on AI-driven enterprise spending and cloud adoption trends.

? Any signals regarding customer demand, backlog growth, and deferred revenue expansion.

Bottom Line

Oracle enters its Q3 earnings release with strong AI-driven tailwinds but faces ongoing questions about the pace of cloud expansion, competitive positioning, and margin sustainability. Investors should look for continued momentum in AI cloud services, database adoption trends, and any updates on large-scale enterprise deals. With competitors aggressively expanding in AI infrastructure, Oracle’s execution in this segment will be critical to maintaining its high-growth trajectory.

DICK’S Sporting Goods (DKS) Q4 Fiscal 2024 Earnings Preview

DICK’S Sporting Goods heads into its fourth-quarter earnings release with strong momentum from a better-than-expected holiday shopping season and continued market share gains. The company raised its full-year sales and earnings guidance following a solid Q3, and investors will be watching to see if that strength carried through to the final quarter of the fiscal year.

Key Areas to Watch:

1. Holiday Season Performance & Comparable Sales Growth

DICK’S raised its full-year comparable sales growth guidance to 3.6%-4.2% last quarter, an increase from its prior 2.5%-3.5% range. The Q4 report will provide insight into:

? Holiday sales strength, particularly in key categories like footwear, athletic apparel, and team sports.

? Continued market share gains, particularly against struggling department stores and general sporting goods competitors.

? Omni-channel performance, including e-commerce growth and in-store sales trends.

2. Margin Trends & Profitability

Margins will be closely scrutinized as the company navigates rising labor costs, inventory management, and discounting pressure from the competitive retail environment. Key areas of focus will include:

? Gross margin trends, particularly the balance between promotional activity and full-price sales.

? Inventory levels, as retailers have been cautious with stock following supply chain disruptions in prior years.

? Operating expenses, including investments in new store concepts and digital infrastructure.

3. Store Expansion & Concept Growth

DICK’S has aggressively expanded its experiential retail concepts, including House of Sport and DICK’S Field House. These initiatives aim to drive customer engagement and differentiate the brand from traditional sporting goods retailers. Investors will be looking for:

? Updates on new store openings and remodels.

? Early insights into customer engagement and sales performance at House of Sport locations.

? The impact of GameChanger, DICK’S youth sports technology platform, on brand loyalty and customer retention.

4. Updated Guidance for 2025

Management raised its full-year 2024 EPS guidance to $13.65-$13.95 last quarter, citing strong execution and market positioning. Investors will be paying close attention to:

? Fiscal 2025 outlook, including revenue and profit expectations.

? Any commentary on consumer demand trends heading into spring and summer sports seasons.

? Capital allocation plans, including potential increases in dividends or share buybacks.

Bottom Line

DICK’S Sporting Goods enters its Q4 earnings report with a strong tailwind from holiday sales and strategic investments in new retail formats. Investors should focus on holiday performance, margin trends, and updated 2025 guidance to gauge whether DICK’S can sustain its growth trajectory in a competitive retail landscape.

Adobe (ADBE) Q1 Fiscal 2025 Earnings Preview

Adobe enters its fiscal Q1 2025 earnings report with strong momentum from record-setting results in fiscal 2024, driven by growth across Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, and Experience Cloud. Investors will be watching to see if Adobe can maintain its double-digit revenue growth while navigating macroeconomic uncertainties, AI-driven industry shifts, and competition in digital experience platforms.

Key Areas to Watch:

1. Subscription Growth & Digital Media Momentum

Adobe’s Digital Media segment, which includes Creative Cloud and Document Cloud, reached $15.86 billion in revenue in FY24 (+12% YoY), with net new Digital Media Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR) exceeding $2 billion.

For Q1 2025, investors should focus on:

? Creative Cloud performance, especially AI-powered offerings like Adobe Firefly and the integration of generative AI into Photoshop and Illustrator.

? Retention and growth in Document Cloud, where ARR reached $3.48 billion last quarter as businesses continue digital transformation efforts.

? Impact of price increases announced in late 2024, which could contribute to stronger revenue growth but may also affect subscriber retention.

2. AI & Adobe Firefly Expansion

AI has been a major driver of Adobe’s product roadmap, with Firefly AI tools integrated across Creative Cloud and Experience Cloud. This quarter’s earnings call may provide:

? Updates on AI adoption and monetization strategies, including usage trends and how Firefly contributes to ARR growth.

? Enterprise demand for AI-driven automation tools, particularly in marketing and content creation workflows.

? Competition risks from AI-native startups and evolving customer preferences for generative AI models.

3. Digital Experience Growth & Enterprise Demand

Adobe’s Digital Experience segment, which powers enterprise marketing and analytics solutions, grew 10% YoY in FY24 to $5.37 billion. However, enterprise software spending remains volatile, making it an area to watch.

Key earnings call topics could include:

? Growth in Experience Cloud subscription revenue, which climbed 12% YoY last quarter.

? Updates on enterprise AI adoption within Experience Cloud, particularly in customer journey automation.

? Competitive pressure from Microsoft and Salesforce, which are expanding their AI-driven marketing and data platforms.

4. Profitability & Guidance for 2025

Adobe ended FY24 with $8.06 billion in operating cash flow, a strong indicator of financial stability. For Q1 2025, expectations are:

? Revenue guidance of $5.63B - $5.68B, reflecting ~11% YoY growth.

? Non-GAAP EPS forecast of $4.95 - $5.00, indicating continued margin strength.

? Potential FX headwinds, with Adobe citing a $200 million full-year revenue impact from currency fluctuations and subscription model shifts.

Bottom Line

Adobe’s upcoming earnings report will highlight its AI-driven growth strategy, subscription retention, and enterprise demand for digital experience solutions. With AI playing an increasingly critical role in Adobe’s business, investors should focus on AI monetization, pricing effects on subscriber growth, and competition in enterprise software.

Dollar General (DG) Q4 Fiscal 2024 Earnings Preview

Dollar General heads into its fourth-quarter earnings report looking to stabilize margins and drive same-store sales growth after a challenging year marked by margin pressures, hurricane-related costs, and weaker discretionary spending. The company raised its full-year guidance slightly after Q3 but remains focused on improving store performance, reducing shrink, and executing on its Project Elevate initiative to enhance store remodels.

Key Areas to Watch:

1. Same-Store Sales & Consumer Demand Trends

Dollar General’s Q3 same-store sales grew 1.3% YoY, helped by growth in consumables, but discretionary categories (home, seasonal, and apparel) remained weak. The Q4 earnings report will provide:

? Insights into holiday sales performance, particularly in non-consumables, which have been a drag on margins.

? Trends in customer traffic vs. basket size, as inflation continues to impact lower-income consumers.

? Impact of government assistance trends, including changes to SNAP benefits and other consumer support programs.

2. Margin Pressures & Inventory Management

Gross margins declined slightly in Q3 due to higher markdowns, increased inventory damages, and a higher mix of consumables. Investors will be watching for:

? Shrink and damage reduction progress, as the company continues efforts to improve store execution.

? Inventory levels, which declined 7% per store in Q3 but remain a key focus area.

? Potential cost savings from supply chain and self-distribution efficiencies under DG Fresh.

3. Project Elevate & Store Expansion Plans

Dollar General is aggressively remodeling stores, with over 4,800 real estate projects planned for FY25, including:

? 575 new store openings, including up to 15 in Mexico.

? 2,000 full remodels and 2,250 lighter-touch "Project Elevate" remodels aimed at boosting mature store performance.

? Updates on pOpshelf expansion, which targets higher-margin discretionary spending.

4. Updated 2025 Guidance & Profitability Outlook

Dollar General slightly lowered its full-year EPS guidance to $5.50-$5.90, citing hurricane-related costs, but expects:

? Q4 revenue to reflect 4.8%-5.1% YoY growth.

? Continued pressure on SG&A costs, particularly from higher wages and store investments.

? No share repurchases, as the company focuses on balancing growth investments with shareholder returns.

Bottom Line

Dollar General’s upcoming earnings report will focus on its ability to sustain same-store sales growth, improve margins, and execute its aggressive store remodel strategy. Investors should look for early signs of success from Project Elevate, improvements in discretionary sales, and updates on store efficiency initiatives as the company navigates a challenging retail landscape.

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Q4 Fiscal 2024 Earnings Preview

Ulta Beauty is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings after navigating a year marked by slowing comparable sales growth, margin pressures, and strategic investments. The beauty retailer remains a dominant force in the industry, but investors will be closely monitoring its holiday season performance, profitability trends, and future growth initiatives.

Key Areas to Watch:

1. Holiday Season Performance & Comparable Sales

Ulta’s Q3 comparable sales grew just 0.6% YoY, a significant deceleration from 4.5% in Q3 FY23. The Q4 earnings call will shed light on:

? Holiday sales performance, particularly in high-margin categories like skincare and cosmetics.

? Foot traffic vs. ticket size trends, as inflation impacts discretionary spending.

? Growth in e-commerce and loyalty program engagement, key drivers of long-term revenue.

2. Gross Margins & Expense Management

Ulta reported a gross margin of 39.7% in Q3, slightly down from 39.9% YoY, due to higher supply chain costs and lower other revenue contributions. In Q4, investors will be watching:

? Inventory markdowns and promotional activity, which could weigh on profitability.

? SG&A expenses, which increased to 27.0% of net sales in Q3, partly due to strategic investments.

? Potential margin improvements from pricing strategies and cost efficiencies.

3. Store Expansion & Strategic Initiatives

Ulta continues to invest in its store footprint and digital transformation, with 57 new stores opened in FY24 and continued enhancements to in-store experiences. Key areas of interest include:

? Updates on store expansion plans, including new locations and remodels.

? Performance of the Target partnership, which integrates Ulta’s brands into select Target locations.

? Growth in exclusive and private-label beauty brands, a key competitive advantage.

4. 2025 Guidance & Profitability Outlook

Ulta raised its full-year EPS guidance to $23.20-$23.75 in Q3, citing improved operational execution. Investors will be looking for:

? Q4 revenue growth projections and FY25 guidance.

? Management’s outlook on discretionary spending trends in a potentially softer consumer environment.

? Stock buyback activity, as the company repurchased $267 million worth of shares in Q3 and has $2.9 billion remaining in its repurchase program.

Bottom Line

Ulta Beauty’s upcoming earnings will provide key insights into holiday sales trends, margin recovery, and the success of its store expansion strategy. With modest same-store sales growth and margin pressures still in play, investors should focus on profitability trends, strategic initiatives, and management’s confidence in FY25 growth prospects.

Final Thoughts: Key Takeaways from This Earnings Cycle

As these five companies prepare to report earnings, several critical themes will shape investor sentiment in the weeks ahead. Oracle’s cloud infrastructure growth, fueled by AI demand, will be a key indicator of how enterprises are prioritizing AI investments. Adobe’s AI-driven product evolution will be closely watched as it seeks to reinforce its leadership in digital media software.

In retail, DICK’S Sporting Goods and Dollar General face diverging consumer spending trends—one benefiting from strong demand for sports equipment and apparel, the other navigating price-sensitive shoppers and margin headwinds. Ulta Beauty’s results will provide further insight into discretionary retail, particularly in beauty and personal care, as it looks to maintain growth in a moderating environment.

Across all five companies, profitability, operating efficiency, and strategic investments will be in focus, as businesses balance growth initiatives with margin preservation in an unpredictable economic climate. Investors should pay close attention to management commentary on 2025 outlooks, as these updates will offer valuable signals on demand trends, spending priorities, and competitive positioning in the year ahead.

Stay tuned—we’ll continue to break down the biggest earnings reports and market-moving insights as they unfold.

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