Will AI Replace Engineers? An AI-Optimist Take

Happy New Year! The holidays have passed, and as we return to work after time spent with family and friends, we dive back into conversations both familiar and new. Much of this holiday time is spent around the dinner table, chatting with relatives you see only occasionally throughout the year. These interactions often spark fascinating discussions—or sometimes awkward ones, like me attempting to explain my job as an engineer.

This year, however, the curiosity about my profession took a back seat. Instead, the spotlight was on artificial intelligence (AI). The question echoed repeatedly: “Is AI coming for our jobs?”

I fielded versions of this question from people in wildly different industries—fields I admittedly know little about. But here, on Refactoring, I want to tackle this question for my own domain: Will AI replace engineers? And to make the discussion more meaningful, I’ll refine the question:

• Which engineers might AI replace—seniors, juniors, specialists, generalists?
• When might this happen—next year, in five years, or further into the future?

The truth is nobody can answer these questions definitively. But that doesn’t mean we can’t unpack the nuances of this issue. My take? Engineers will thrive thanks to AI rather than being replaced. As an AI optimist, let me explain why.

?? Capped vs. Uncapped Value

In the tech world, there’s never a shortage of work. Whether it’s quarter planning or backlog reviews, you’ll never hear, “We don’t have much to do this quarter!” In tech, engineering time equals business opportunities—it’s an industry with uncapped value.

If AI boosts productivity, the likely outcome isn’t layoffs or stagnation; it’s doing more. Compare this to industries with capped value, like cleaning services: tripling productivity there doesn’t triple demand for cleaning. In tech, the opposite is true—more productivity leads to more possibilities.

Software is already pervasive, but it could be exponentially more so if engineering wasn’t so resource intensive. AI doesn’t threaten engineers in good companies; instead, it empowers them to accomplish more ambitious goals.

That said, there’s an exception: companies that treat tech as a cost center rather than a growth engine. These are the “cleaning service” scenarios where AI might lead to downsizing. But these jobs were likely uninspiring even before AI arrived. In contrast, companies with visionary goals will leverage AI to accelerate innovation rather than cut costs.

?? A Personal Example: Building Outside My Comfort Zone

Recently, I built an app using a tech stack I had little prior experience with. Thanks to AI-powered tools like GitHub Copilot, I went from zero knowledge to a functional product in record time.

AI didn’t replace me—it extended my capabilities. It handled boilerplate code, suggested optimizations, and explained concepts, freeing me to focus on high-level design and creative problem-solving. Could AI have built the app on its own? Not quite. It required context, taste, and decision-making—areas where human engineers still excel.

This is the current reality of AI in engineering: it’s a phenomenal assistant, not a replacement. It augments our skills rather than erasing them.

?? Asymptotic Progress: Slowing Down Before the Singularity

The notion that AI will reach and surpass human performance—what some call “the singularity”—is often treated as inevitable. But progress doesn’t always follow a straight line.

AI development has seen incredible breakthroughs in recent years, but the low-hanging fruit has been picked. Complex, real-world problems—like navigating large, interdependent codebases—are much harder for AI to tackle. The more nuanced the task, the slower progress becomes. This asymptotic nature of AI advancement means that even as tools improve, they may never fully replicate human engineers.

We’re already seeing this dynamic. While AI can generate simple scripts or automate repetitive tasks, it struggles with messy, ambiguous problems that require judgment and creativity. The gap between AI and human engineers might narrow, but it’s unlikely to disappear entirely.

? Taste vs. Skills: What AI Can’t Replicate

Engineering isn’t just about writing code; it’s about knowing what to build and why. This is where “taste” comes into play—the ability to discern good solutions from bad ones, to align technical decisions with business goals, and to understand the needs of users.

Taste is hard to quantify, and it’s even harder to teach an AI. While AI can recommend options or generate prototypes, it lacks the intuition and domain expertise to choose the best path forward. In engineering, as in many creative fields, the ability to recognize what’s good often outweighs the technical skill to produce it. This is why engineers who cultivate taste and judgment will remain indispensable.

?? Engineers of the Future: The Real 10x Engineer

If AI changes the engineering landscape, what will the “10x engineer” of the future look like? Spoiler: it’s not someone who churns out code faster than everyone else. It’s someone who uses AI as a force multiplier.

The engineers who thrive in an AI-augmented world will excel at:

• Problem framing: Defining the right problem to solve.
• Orchestration: Coordinating tools, people, and systems to deliver solutions.
• Critical thinking: Evaluating AI outputs and integrating them into complex workflows.
• Creativity: Thinking outside the box to leverage AI in novel ways.

These skills are inherently human, and they become even more valuable as AI takes over routine tasks. The future of engineering isn’t about competition with AI; it’s about collaboration.

Conclusion: Thriving with AI

So, will AI replace engineers? For the foreseeable future, the answer is a resounding no. Instead, it will transform the profession, automating repetitive work and amplifying human capabilities. Engineers who adapt to this shift—by focusing on creativity, judgment, and collaboration—will find themselves in high demand.

The real question isn’t whether AI will take your job. It’s whether you’re ready to embrace the opportunities AI creates. For engineers with the right mindset, the future isn’t something to fear—it’s something to build.

Happy New Year, and here’s to thriving in an AI-powered world!