The AI problem

For the last 2 years, the word AI has been dropped everywhere. From grand promises of AI revolutionising industries to fears of it taking over jobs. But let's take a moment to sift through the noise and look at what's really happening in the AI landscape and why there is so much hype.??

The core technology has been around for decades

First of all, AI is a very useful tool and has been for as long as it has existed. Which is almost as long as computers have existed. We should actually change the name to Automated Linear Algebra and Optimization, but AI is more catchy.?

The so-called "AI revolution" hinges on three key enablers: the availability of data, vast computational power, and advancements in algorithms. Today, we have the data (albeit much of it is useless) and the compute power which enables more applications of the tech. The algorithms still need some significant improvement before we can achieve the lofty promises made by the big guys. Moreover, there is also the hardware problem whereby using digital computers to simulate intelligence has its own fundamental issues. Which is why I believe AGI will never be achieved with digital computers. But that’s a separate topic on its own.?

The progress is much slower than everyone thinks

If you truly look at the progress of AI, it is much slower than the media or large organisations are portraying it to be. If we look at LLM’s specifically, the only 2 breakthroughs that can actually be seen as large progressive steps in my opinion are the transformer architecture, which is a scientific achievement and GPT3.5/ ChatGPT which is an engineering/ product accomplishment. All the million other innovations are either variations of that or completely fake marketing schemes.

So why the hype?

1. Financial Incentives

The most obvious reason for the AI hype is financial gain. Many large technology corporations haven't seen real growth in quite a while. To meet growth targets, they need to create the illusion of rapid progress. This manufactured excitement helps drive stock prices up. Remember, stonks must go up. That is a fundamental law. So the only way to achieve growth if you're not growing, is to create it artificially and intelligently, pun intended.

2. Accelerating Innovation

Another reason for the hype is to accelerate real advancements in AI. By creating a buzz, the industry attracts more investment and talent, accelerating research and development. It’s a “fake it till you make it” situation increasing the potential to eventually turn hype into reality.

3. A Distraction Tactic

AI also serves as a convenient distraction from pressing social and political issues. By focusing public attention on futuristic changes, deeper societal problems can be sidelined.

4. The New Religion

For some, AI has even become a new religion. Just like the ‘quantum’ situation. A growing number of people believe that there will be an all powerful AI that will solve all of our problems and create a utopia. Which by definition is not possible as it goes against human nature, and any nature for that matter. They see AI as some kind of a second coming. Many of those people are actually reputable and high ranking scientists and industry leaders. There are psychological explanations for why those people believe that but it's a topic I’ll leave for another time.

Navigating the Hype

I am not a sceptic of AI’s potential because my recruitment software startup is built around AI agents. But it is important to stay realistic by managing the risks related to the technology and to not fall victim to false expectations.?

In conclusion, while AI technology holds significant promise in the long run, it’s crucial to temper our expectations and recognize the current limitations. By focusing on realistic applications and continuous improvement, while accepting that it is just a tool that will not solve all of our problems, we can harness AI’s true potential without falling prey to exaggerated claims.

Let’s stay informed and critical of everything we see and read. Feel free to share your thoughts, whether you agree or not.