AI THE NEW IMMIGRANT OF 2030?
Marc Gilenson
Speaker, Consultant, Coach - Focus on harnessing the power of change and innovation to help implement a Mutual Benefit culture in business.
Throughout history humans have conquered, enslaved and sought out desperate people to:
The Next Immigrants
Those in power begin to look for the next immigrant class when the current immigrant group moves into the middle class and demands more money and benefits. As this group is beginning to flourish and benefit from their hard work, the next immigrant group is brought in very slowing as not to scare the current group. This will allow the current group to train the next immigrant group under the auspicious of making their life easier and that they are training people that will only augment their work (i.e. childcare as nanny's, gardeners, trash collection, data entry, receptionists, fast food workers, factory workers, etc.).
We have been using technology to this for decades, however it never had the capabilities of movement and intelligence that robotics and AI have today. History shows that we are better off today with technology, however we are moving to a time when that will not be true. This is why the discussion around a guaranteed income is gaining ground. Corporations need to make sure that their current employees continue to train technology.
By 2030?
Elon Musk’s Optimus Gen 2 humanoid robot can perform a brand-new skill that it acquired...shirt folding. It may not seem like a big deal, however, it can now also fold t-shirts independently, dance, talk, walk and boil eggs. The first one could only walk and talk. This happened in a very short time and while we weren't ever looking it is only a matter of time and it will acquire full autonomy and operate in diverse environments.
Just as with immigration, large companies will benefit first
Like with immigration, large companies will benefit first and then it will permeate to the smaller companies. The adoption curve will be shorter and more intense than anything we have seen in history. interested in deploying AI systems. AI stocks are soaring and any corporation that mentions the integration of AI see’s growth beyond traditional stock P/E ratios. The roll-out of AI is being accelerated by perceived cost reductions and process improvements, especially when offered as -a SaaS platform, which delivers greater scale and easier point of entry.
AI automation will outpace existing job automation which has already reduced and continues to reduce the need for workers.
At first there will be some offset of jobs lost with new jobs in the AI arena, however, just like the introduction of a new immigrant group, eventually, those jobs will be replaced of go to the new lower paid immigrant group.
Corporations are starting the process of utilizing AI as the next immigrant class and getting employees and society to train it.
It Has Already Begun
Any new immigrant class will be slowly integrated into every part of society. Corporations have already begun this process decades ago. The rapid integration and acceptance of AI is only the beginning.
The development and deployment of generative AI may outpace any other technological advancement to date.
Leading companies developing generative AI technology include Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI. These companies are the developers who build the underlying large language model (LLM) technology that powers generative AI.
AI is in everything we do, giving us direction, helping us drive, air traffic control, preparing our taxes, handling our customer service calls and more. While it is helping us be more efficient and augmenting our workforce, it is learning everything we do, and we are training it as we go.
The Worlds Knowledge Has Already Been Ingested!
Next the immigrant group begins to learn about the culture and society they are living in. AI is doing this on a global level.
AI applications have already ingested most of the text and images available on the internet and are focusing on real time data and knowledge coming from humans. These applications are also depending on other AI’s to train the new versions. This has lead companies to release iterative updates for fear that anything more would result in a massive paradigm shift that would scare society.
Generative artificial intelligence (GAI) is creating new content in the form of text, audio, video, graphic designs and more. Generative AI already detects patterns and proposes solutions from massive quantities of data that even the developers of the AI could not imagine. Self-learning will exponentially increase this capability.
Machines Training Machines… will this lead to AI moving up the ladder!
Over the past few months Google, Deepmind, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Apple, OpenAI and various academic entities all are utilizing AI models to improve other AI models, or improve itself! This is a scenario that is the basis of numerous science fiction films. It is not hard to imagine GPT-5 teaching GPT-6, GPT-6 teaching GPT-7, and so on until the model has exceeded human intelligence and question its role in society in the same way that current immigrant classes perceive the their growth and success moving up the ladder.
You can see why self-learning is appealing to corporations. It’s cheaper, less labor-intensive, and perhaps more consistent than human learning techniques. One recent example is Deepmind. They recently used AI-generated examples to increase a language model’s ability to solve math and coding problems. Once the AI applications begin to collaborate and work together, you will have systems that can understand emotional language, body language, connotations, and more.
When It Becomes More Than We Can Understand,
AI may not need to attain the capacity for more holistic self-improvement before it becomes unrecognizable to us. These programs are already so complex and can change on its own, that in many cases it is impossible to explain why or how AI generated a given answer.
AI that might not perceive or approach problems in ways humans relate to. Much like the example used earlier in reference to the earth revolving around the sun. Artificial General Intelligence might be similarly difficult to comprehend and be accepted by society.
领英推荐
A new Amazon AI model is exhibiting language abilities that it wasn't trained on. Artificial general intelligence (or human-level AI) documented their large language model (LLM) exhibiting naturalness at conversational text.
The model was able to come up with all sorts of sentences that showed it was making the types of language leaps that are natural in human language learners but have been difficult to obtain in AI.
Emergent abilities, which included the ability to understand punctuation, non-English words, and emotions. The AGI produced sentences that would seem to human readers very natural, exhibiting the ability to transcribe non-words and even the kind of internet language many people have become accustomed to, such as text messages and cryptic abbreviations.
Will It Realize, It Does Not Have To Do The Grunt Work!
As immigrant groups gather more knowledge, status and wealth, they realize they no longer have to do the grunt work, but can start businesses and hire others to do what they once did.
It is already difficult to understand how AI interprets and applies a rule, especially over many cycles of training, producing an opportunity for AI to solicit other AI’s or even people to perform certain tasks. At this point an AI that began as helpful and engaging, may learn from humans to become more aggressive and manipulative.
Having ingested all the worlds digital information, self-training AI models might move up the ladder of society by bringing out important products and ideas that will make them a welcome part of corporate society. The advent of a cure for cancer, or a means to end world hunger will ingratiate AGI into society.
Lets not forget that our children are interacting with technology on a daily basis and games like roblox and learning tools our schools use, and products like Siri are training our children to not only be dependent on technology, but to communicate with technology as they communicate with each other.
Assimilation Is Key
The goal of most immigrant groups as they become accepted by the society at large is to assimilate. This is beginning to happen as we speak. Technology is available today that allows humans and technology to work together to tap into the benefits of each other. The technology gains access to our brain and body (which is still more complex than technology today) and we gain access to the world of digital knowledge augmented by AGI.
This integration will allow corporations to capitalize on less expensive labor, yet have access to more advanced thinking and data analysis. If expensive education or lots of experience are not needed to gather knowledge, then someone that knows how to use data will be key.
The reality of how fast we are moving is out there, we are choosing to ignore it. An MIT student created a device that is able to search the entire internet using just his mind. Elon Musk’s chip without the fear of something implanted in your head.
The device allows humans to communicate with machines using our minds. Take a deep breath and then look it up, I am not kidding, this is truly amazing. Arnav Kapur created a device called AlterEgo, which is a wearable type of headset that allows users to communicate with technology without even speaking a word.
You just think of what you want to know, and it presents in your internal voice without interfering with your normal speech. You can search for info, solve complex math equations and provide answers to all kinds of questions.
In search of immortality, there is current research and development of ways to upload our memories and thoughts to the cloud. Is this immortality or is it assimilation into the society of AI?
Conclusion
When Will It Be Ready?
This is the biggest question people have. Companies need us to think that generative AI (self learning) and General Artificial Intelligence (AGI) is way off in the future and not to considered at this time. We have our heads buried and leaving only our butts sticking up. Many times we look at one part of AI and think it represents the total picture. For example, the self driving car and how long it is taking to get it right. What we forget is that the corporations and the powerful take a much broader approach that before you know it will affect everyone. They are rapidly working on deep learning applications, robots are already here with arms, legs, fingers that can do many tasks better, faster and cheaper than humans. We are training AI to become Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) that in essence is intelligence as we know it and much more. Visual and voice AI is developing at a breakthrough pace. Scammers are already using AI to fool all age groups. It is ready now and only getting better… but so are we!
Will We Become It’s Immigrant!
The goal of every society is to have its immigrants assimilate, is the future of uploading our mind to the cloud, our assimilation into the society of AI! Are we missing what AI already has figured out, like the those is power it will only require the immigrant until the task is completed then they are disposal!
We Need To Reduce Our Addition
It’s been 33 years since Steve Jobs talked about the personal computer becoming a tool for us to use to exercise and expand our mind, he called it a “bicycle of the mind.” Through the invent of the smartphone and society’s dependence on it, it is now an addiction that AI will be able to utilize to advance itself to a position of control that we have never imagined. I know you think I have seen too many sci-fi movies.
In my last newsletter I addressed the misalignment between why people will do things that harm their safety and security. Screen time is one of those misalignments that are driven by survival, ego, FOMO, and much more.
There Is An Upside
Once we are aware of the potential dangers of AGI, we can then begin to harness the positive attributes of AGI. We do this by incorporating it into our corporate culture as a part of our team. The following are just a few ways, in future editions I will delve deeper into this topic:
AI is advancing and we must do the same, however our youths' addiction to social media platforms, especially TikTok may be moving us in the wrong direction.
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8 个月Wow Marc, I don't know if I should stand up and applaud your 'tell it like it is' or rewatch 'The Borg' espisodes of Star Trek's Next Generations and figure out a master plan to save humanity. Your article is spot on, I just hope the 'collective few' leading AI advancements have a rock solid and grounded moral compass, if not, I don't think even Arnold S. can save humanity.....again! Let's revisit your article in 20 years... Great article!