AI is Killing Innovation. That Has to Change.

Part 1 of 4

It sounds like a contradiction, doesn’t it? But I don’t suggest that artificial intelligence (AI) itself is doing the damage. Rather, it’s the exponentially growing demand for compute – the raw infrastructure that powers AI – and the lack of equitable access to that essential resource. In other words: no compute equals no innovation for far too many organizations, large and small (yes, despite DeepSeek and Stargate). That has to change.?????

First, let’s take a step back. Innovation wasn’t always this gated – and that was a really good thing.

Consider the Internet, a ubiquitous technology whose ubiquity was far from assured. When we think back to the 1940s, computers alone cost hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars, could only be operated by the US Government, and barely fit into a single room! The prevailing opinion, even by the late 1970s, was that this technology would be reserved for the very few – a sentiment expressed by DEC founder Ken Olsen when he infamously postulated, “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.”

What changed? Economics. Demand increases and mass adoption is made possible when the price of a product’s complementary components (or “complements”) decreases. IBM commoditized computer hardware, putting a PC in every home and a spoiler on Ken Olsen’s prediction. Intel drove down the cost of processing power with the x86. Ethernet cable standardization from Bob Metcalfe drove down networking prices and created the open standard for connectivity.?

For the Internet, letting the free and fair market grow through openness and standardization rapidly transformed the world and made global connectivity possible. The secret for each of these complementary innovations wasn’t about control, it was about removing constraints.

But now, as we move deeper into the age of machine learning, AI innovation is choking on its core complements: data and compute. Innovation requires vast computational and data resources. And that compute, the fuel that powers this new era, isn’t just expensive; its capacity is constrained and it’s concentrated under the control of the hands of a select few. Even those select few suffer from similar cost and capacity constraints, as the Stargate announcement and the Big Tech earnings calls this quarter make abundantly clear.

In this world – where cost, capacity and control are constrained – innovation gasps. Stay tuned, more thoughts coming in Part 2 coming later this week.??