?? AI, jobs and Engels' pause
This is the year that genAI gains mainstream acceptance in the workplace (i.e. executive approval). Talking directly with more than thirty CEOs and senior executives in Davos, I was surprised to see how fast they have acted. The overwhelming majority had generative AI-based projects underway. In one case, a CIO reported 26 GenAI projects in deployment.
Exponential View reader, John Romeo , led research for Oliver Wyman that surveyed 25,000 workers in 17 countries . Half of all workers were already using generative AI tools in work, with rates much higher in India and the UAE than in the US.
There is a pincer movement going on. Top execs are excited by genAI and front-line workers are using it, coupled with the comparative ease of integration (certainly compared to cloud migration, for example) this pincer could squeeze some of the internal resistance that stops large firms acting quickly.
领英推荐
Let’s not pretend this doesn’t create tensions. Older workers might find it hard to adapt, and middle managers could face a mid-career crisis, realising that their younger colleagues armed with AI make them redundant . The likely outcome is downward wage pressure: junior workers with AI competing with more expensive older workers for one, and the automation (and thus decrease in cost) of many cognitive tasks.
We might be entering an Engels’ Pause — a phase where economic and technological advancements precede improvements in workers’ living standards. This mirrors the early Industrial Revolution, where initial industrial expansion did not immediately enhance workers’ conditions, highlighting a disparity between technological advancement and societal progress. (Sam Altman and I discussed this very issue back in May when I raised the spectre of “Altman’s Pause” .)
Avoiding an Engel’s Pause might be possible. If economies adapt rapidly, workers might have the option to switch from?roles where wages are declining to better ones. Policy interventions might also help mitigate this but could be expensive for governments, and lack political support.
*I got back from Davos late on Friday. It was incredibly interesting, and I will be sharing my takeaways with Exponential View members in the coming weeks. Become a member to participate .
Principal Consultant at NCA Dynamics
9 个月Basically you are saying: "if economies adapt quickly and governments act efficiently in the interest of their workers (and not "ruling" class) we should all be good". So that means we are all royally screwed.
Hands-on Technology Executive | CIO | CISO | Data & Analytics | Governance | (Re)Insurance
9 个月I am wondering if the usage rate of Generative AI tools in India and UAE is due to the nature of work that is performed in those economies - is it more repeatable and ripe for automation? Or are they just more focused on the efficiency of their operations? As for Engels’ Pause - we are already solidly situated in ‘EP2.0’ - and genAI is an accelerant. You simply need to replace ‘middle class’ with ‘knowledge class’.
Freedom Lifestyle Designer: From bank COO to helping people & businesses unlock new opportunities
9 个月I wonder how Altman feels about giving his name to the Altman’s Pause ?? I have a similar view that it’s hard to see wide scale application not depressing wage growth … although for now we are living in buoyant time. Thankfully we have more and more Aging populations, and arguably need tools to supplement labour at this stage
farming. at I am self employment
9 个月Thank you for this conversation.If you break rules and regulation, be ready to get punishment!What are being done ?It is only to break the law.we have eyes, we do not want to see and ears not want to hear!
Next Trend Realty LLC./wwwHar.com/Chester-Swanson/agent_cbswan
9 个月Thanks for Posting.