AI isn't the dotcom bubble
In today’s AI market, we’re frequently asked if we’re living through the next dotcom bubble.?
Hype, FOMO, daily model drops, massive rounds and overbuilt infrastructure....
We think a few highlights from this year’s State of AI Report neatly illustrate why this is misguided.?
Summary below....
The skeptics focus heavily on the frothiest corners of the private markets, but ignore actual AI research progress.?
Mocking bad business ideas (which exist in every sector) is easier than engaging with the, now Nobel-winning, substance.
In the State of AI Report , we extensively document how AI is creating real value beyond answering big picture scientific questions and is alleviating more mundane bottlenecks in clinical workflows.
Many of the dotcom companies had nothing in the way of innovation, not least revenue.?
This time around, only a handful of AI-first companies (usually focused on long-term scientific questions) have no revenue, while others are scaling at record pace.
20 months from $0 to $30M+ in annual revenue is no headfake.?
That, of course, doesn’t mean we believe in every technology.?
We’re openly skeptical about humanoids in the report, but if every start-up working on them went to zero, it would have zero macro consequences.?
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Why? Because the market is resilient.
When we first started producing the report in 2018, AI wasn’t the top of any policymaker’s priority list.
Alongside the White House concerning itself with frontier LLM oversight, we’ve seen a broader rush to build resilience around the world.
The bubble meme stems from people forgetting how dotcom actually worked.?
It was a public markets, retail-driven phenomenon.?
Our report shows how AI companies are staying private thanks to deep pools of private capital.
There’s also an off-ramp for companies that aren’t set to succeed long-term, whereas dotcom was characterized by widespread bankruptcies and 99% discounted firesales.
We’re not averse to skeptical takes over on Air Street Press , but producing the report every year reminds us just why we’re so optimistic about the future.?
Check out the piece in full over at: https://press.airstreet.com/p/ai-isnt-the-dotcom-bubble
Author & Entrepreneur: AI, Geopolitics, Power
4 个月Excellent. And explained so cogently.
Success Coach ?? | Ex-Series A Prod Ops Leader
5 个月I'm curious, what's the difference between AI-first and AI-powered (SaaS)? How are you making this distinction?
Product Director | Multiverse | Series A to D tech
5 个月Nice - I like Bret Taylor's analogy of the cloud boom instead of dotcom for AI Even as the cloud has commoditised and consolidated - the market has grown and added more value to customers over time w/o a heavy crash
Committed to showcasing data science/AI’s critical role for a carbon-negative economy | Growing data culture in [Dutch] investment ecosystem | Driving data-driven investing | Championing deeptech as Europe’s future.
5 个月Found a post finally that structures and summarize even my thoughts! Thx!
AI || Blockchain || Product
5 个月Even the dot com bubble wasn't the dot com bubble in a sense, it was merely incorrect timelines (with dubious accounting practises and wrong selection of players). All of the trends of dot com 1 were realised 10-20 yrs later, using the telco infra dot com 1 funded.