AI Is Inevitable or Is It?
George Warner
Strategic Automation Consultant/Chief Content Evangelist/Speaker/IBM Champion 2020/2021/2022/2023/2024 IBM BA Partner
Over the past several weeks, there has been a tsunami of posts, articles, and market actions which seem to indicate that the AI wave is inevitable. Example, Nvidia's recent quarterly report sent them over $3T valuation. So, everything is a go?
Well, what a minute. There is an emerging contrarian view that not all is well in the AI Era ecosystem. Namely, while the chip companies are making money hands over fists, no one else is. The WSJ post outlines where a company invested $50B in an AI app, but only made $3B. That kind of arithmetic is not going to work in the long term.
So, the jury is out. If no one can make money downstream with AI apps, then the AI Gold Rush becomes a house of cards and goes bust. Quarter by quarter, we'll have to see how the multi-trillion dollar investment shakes out. Stay tuned.
One last, somewhat disturbing point, for all the billions invested in AI and all the subsequent layoffs, as of right now, no one knows how AI works. Yes, it is true.
We are undergoing vast societal change with a technology that we do not understand how it works. That will keep you up at night.
Highlights of The Week
-OpenAI admits they don't understand how AI works
-Is AI losing steam and is it just an expensive fad?
-US Commerce Dept is issuing an AI vision and guidelines - Finally
-Combined Human and AI Design team, Who is working for whom?
-Hugging Face's take on AI, what's working, what's not.
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As you read this week's posts, consider the state of AI. Is it all hype that no one is using? Is it an technology Ponzi Scheme where the revenue from AI apps does not justify the investment and will fiscally implode?
As always, your advice and guidance are appreciated and helpful.
Please keep them coming.
Thanks, George, [email protected]
Building SAP Generative AI , SAP Knowledge Graph | Single and Multiple Agents for Enterprises | Mentor | Agentic AI expert | Advisor | Gen AI Lead/Architect
9 个月What factors do you think will most influence the inevitability of AI in our daily lives?
AI Transformation Managing Advisor
9 个月Excellent questions to ask! And we need to keep asking them amid such a life-changing phenomenon. In terms ROI, to me it's way too soon to tell. Chip providers making profit here and now is understandable due to their pricing power - in terms of margins but also wrt payment terms in general. They placed their bets decades ago (NVIDIA) and are now reaping the benefits. Most other players are placing their bets only now. It is not reasonable to expect payback so soon - especially given the inertias related to markets (customers), technical systems, and organizational readiness. In short, some factors might still kill AI off but delayed gratification (margins) it is not. Fear of AGI would be the most apparent candidate but that would require global regulatory agreement. Given the current geopolitics, that ain't happening either...
During the gold rush in the 1800s, the men supplying the picks, shovels, carts and mules made all the money. Right now it's the chipmakers. If I were in San Francisco in 1849, I'd be selling boots.