AI, In-House Production & the Future

There’s been much wailing and gnashing of teeth in the advertising production and post industry.? The twin threats of growing in-house agency production and AI have caused some to say, “It’s just a cycle that will see a swing back as it always has”. To others who lament that “It was a fun business while it lasted!”.

Over the past 8 months or so, I’ve been attempting to gauge how our industry is going to shake out in the future.? For those who don’t know me, I’m a long-time DGA director and DP. ?I founded or co-founded several production and post companies including Click 3X, Sound Lounge, Heard City, ClickFire Media and Bonfire. Recently I worked with a Madrid-based company to develop their virtual cloud-based workstation business.?

Several months ago, I began helping a creative editorial company in researching in very specific terms, where AI can be instrumental in post.? This was less about generative AI - creating images and video from a set of prompts - and more about how AI can work in post now.

Literally every day, I scan the half-dozen new AI apps then check out and try to test those that impact media production.? ?Here’s what I see.?

There are applications including existing tools that have been AI-infused and dramatically alter how we should approach post. From color-correct to beauty retouching to rotoscoping to editing to audio recording to stock footage selection and manipulation to CGI to design to all manner of VFX to animation - even the way production is managed - everything has changed. Every skill listed here has an AI-fueled solution that require way less craft to execute.

The AI capabilities in post flow directly to production. If AI can up-res shots, create slow motion, clean up faces, add lighting, remove unwanted objects, replace skies, automatically rotoscope anything and replace entire environments etc. then, “We’ll fix it in post” will be replaced by, “We’ll reconstruct it all with AI”. The production cost savings on many shoots could be seismic.

As an industry we have relied on the brilliant original creative inspiration to concept, direct, design and sell the treatment and then an entire host of craft people to carry out the execution.? We make some money on the original concept, but we make most on the execution including versioning, client changes etc. AI literally replaces that much of this less expensively, more efficiently, and most important, without the investment in capital, infrastructure and teams that form the backbone of so much of our business.?

So, who owns these AI processes and prompt skills?? The Holding Companies are investing hundreds of millions in AI initiatives - including acquisitions - in order to own this.? They too are in a race with their clients to make sure they remain relevant. Two-thirds of brands already have in-house agencies who are also well-positioned to invest in these AI systems.?

While other technologies have taken years to filter through the production process, AI is moving so incredibly fast that new uses and applications will come on the market fully developed in months – not years. ??Nvidia just announced delivery of their new AI superchip Blackwell whose 208 billion transistors is 30 times faster than their previous most advanced chip. ?So, whatever you think of Sora, imagine AI video production 20 or 30 times more advanced.? BTW Sora along with ChatGPT5 is set to launch in the market as early as this fall.

In conclusion, my view is that there is an inevitability that the business of production/post for agencies and brands will shrink significantly.? There are still thousands of clients and agencies who will not have near-term access to this new wave and TV commercials will continue to thrive as an industry as more and more streamers become ad supported.? But the writing (voice prompt?] is on the wall and entire craft categories and careers will virtually disappear. I wouldn’t want to count on making a living as an extra or a rotoscope artist!?

I do think that as best we can, the production/post industry needs to familiarize themselves with and USE the new tools – not just experiment.? This won’t stop the inevitable, but it will postpone the coming storm.

In future postings, I’ll list some of the developments and tools that I think directly impact production and post.

Peter Corbett

Joel Pilger

I help founders master the business of running a successful studio. Start by getting your Studio Strength Score?

5 个月

Thanks for sharing this, Peter. Your perspective is invaluable. I’m curious, do you have a source you can share for the stat, “Two-thirds of brands already have in-house agencies who are also well-positioned…”? I would love to dig deeper into that.

回复
Mary Ida Bonadio

Director of Business Development

7 个月

Thank you.

Marcelo Bukin

Storyteller & Filmmaker

7 个月

Yes, it’s here. Full on. Let’s transform fear into creativity AND adaptability - Change is inevitable. Let’s aim for a positive transformation and evolution.

Jordan Hollender

Multimedia Storyteller specializing in video and photo

7 个月

I’m scared, not gonna lie

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