AI Hype: Bad Data Is Bad Data.
New data highlighted in Casey Newton's Platformer newsletter codifies what most of us have already assumed: AI chatbot usage is starting to reshape search. And when search changes, so does the Internet as we know it. Unfortunately, the data lacks a fundamental denominator, and as such, only serves to feed the signal-free hype cycle we're currently in.
The data comes from Adobe's Analytics platform customers, and it paints a fascinating if incomplete portrait of how consumers conduct their online research. Yes, traffic from AI chatbots has risen more than 1000% since last summer, but....on what base? Take a look at this chart:
Note the Y (vertical) axis - it's in percentages, not in real numbers. If there was one visit in July of 2024, and 17 more folks visited last month, well, there's your 1700% increase! If the base were a million users, that'd imply 18 million last month - significant, but still not that big. Without knowing the base, the figures are meaningless.
These kind of "numbers go up" pronouncements are typical of an industry caught in a hype cycle - Adobe sells a lot of AI-related products after all. And it feeds a press eager to prove pre-conceived notions of AI's indisputable rise. But I find it telling that nothing in the data released gives us a baseline from which we can truly understand generative AI's impact on how search has traditionally driven traffic around the web. And that's a shame.
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3 天前And yet, AI is definitely a thing that will reshape more than online search. What would be really interesting is to plot the increases in power/utility across areas that AI will reshape: biomedical research, mid-level management, robotics/manufacturing, etc.
E-commerce | Digital | Strategy
1 周All aboard the AI hype train! The problem with most data analysis is the fact that the analyst knows the reader doesn't know how to interpret data. That this is from Adobe means this is meant to draw C level people into investments that they have no idea about