AI Has Failed Radiologists: Why Do Humans Believe Bad Predictions?

No one will remember that AI has been struggling for over a decade. It will finally get it right, and all of us will forget the past mistakes. It's human nature. Unlike AI, humans tend to forget.

The Oscar ceremony was held yesterday. Can you name a movie outside of "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" that was nominated for an Oscar? Most people can't, despite these being very good movies that have made it onto a very short list of the best movies in the world.

And it's only been one day. Imagine human memory in a year, 5 years, 10 years. We humans tend to only remember "winners." We don't remember second places.

We like winners. We like "visionaries." We worship them. We elevate them high into the sky. Then we realize that the emperor is completely naked. But by that time, it could be too late.

The problem is, for the life of us, we can't pick winners. So, we bet on those who behave like winners: those who speak with confidence and look good. That's it. You don't need anything else.

We're so mesmerized by perceived "winners" and self-proclaimed visionaries, we forget to ask very basic questions. But the worst part is, regulators forget to ask very basic questions.

I would like to explore who we, the people, put on a pedestal and whom we call "genius," "guru," "visionary," without checking "under the hood," and then later become cheated on and lose a lot in the end: money, trust, belief.

So what do portfolio managers, Wall Street analysts, venture capitalists, Bernie Madoff, Elizabeth Holmes, Ali Parsa, Nassim Taleb, Vinod Khosla, and Geoffrey Hinton have in common? Let's find out.

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