The AI Fork: What Awaits Us in 2025 and Beyond— Humanity's Divergent Future Scenarios

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?? In This Issue ??

• This Week in AI: Nothing really happened. Let's just skip this part for now...
• Deep Dive: The AI Fork: What Awaits Us in 2025 and Beyond— Humanity's Divergent Future Scenarios
• Culture Corner: Dystopian and Utopian Worlds in Sci-Fi Movies
• Quote for You: Carl Sagan??

The AI Fork: What Awaits Us in 2025 and Beyond— Humanity's Divergent Future Scenarios

This is the final edition of my newsletter for this year—and a new year is fast approaching. Forgive me, but I’ve gotten a bit reflective. At the end of the year, I often find myself thinking about the future. This time, though, it’s not just the usual resolutions (more exercise, less junk food, better sleep). This time, I found myself dreaming about the future of humanity.

It all began with three major influences this year:

1. The first major influence was an interview I watched earlier featuring Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, and another one with Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic. Both described how humanity could be just a few thousand days away from achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), probably reaching it in 2025 or 2026.
2. The second one was when I read Mustafa Suleyman’s book, The Coming Wave. Suleyman described AI as an unstoppable force, a transformative wave more dramatic than agriculture, the Industrial Revolution, or the internet. Alongside quantum computing, robotics, and synthetic biology, AI will not only reshape human history but could also redefine humanity itself as biological beings.
3. The last one was just a few days ago, when OpenAI unveiled it's o3 model at the end of December as their "last Christmas surprise." This new model felt qualitatively different—far more competent than anything that had come before.

I started writing The Augmented Manager newsletter a few months ago. Since then, I’ve read countless AI papers, watched hundreds of hours of YouTube videos, and delved deeply into the topic. Despite working in IT and digitalization for decades, I was both stunned and amazed by the profound transformation AI brings—and the incredible speed at which it’s happening. These three pivotal moments in 2024 made it clear to me that we are truly at a turning point in human history. Perhaps as soon as next year, 2025—but if not then, certainly within the next few years—humanity will face decisions that will shape its future.

We have an extraordinary opportunity to steer our destiny in a positive direction. AI, together with the technologies it enables—like quantum computing, synthetic biology, and robotics—could help us solve humanity’s greatest challenges. But this immense power comes with significant risks, and failure could lead to catastrophic consequences.

As managers, we often focus on the next year, setting financial plans and operational goals. But in the Age of AI, we must also step back and look at the broader picture. The challenges we face are no longer local; our fate as humans will be determined globally. How we develop and use AI—and crucially, how we prevent it from controlling us—will define the course of our future.

The two paths before us are closely intertwined. As with any major shift, a small misstep in the beginning could lead us down a completely different, divergent trajectory.

To explore these possibilities, I envisioned two characters, Ellie and Rick, to guide us through the years ahead and imagine the roads humanity might travel.

Ellie's Journey: The Radiant Dawn

For Elie, the world of 2030 is a beacon of hope and progress.

• Artificial intelligence develops reasoning capabilities closer to human cognition, deeply integrating into healthcare, economics, and governance. Tasks ranging from personalized diagnostics to efficient policymaking become seamless and inclusive.
• Fault-tolerant quantum systems with thousands of logical qubits solve real-world challenges like protein folding and climate models. These breakthroughs accelerate medical research and provide actionable solutions for environmental crises.
• Bipedal robots are widely adopted in public services, elder care, and retail, improving lives and reducing societal strain. Swarm robotics revolutionizes disaster relief and precision agriculture, optimizing resource use and saving lives.
• Synthetic biology pioneers create organisms that revolutionize biofuel production and synthetic meat, reducing reliance on unsustainable industries. Personalized regenerative medicine becomes a reality, extending lifespans and enhancing quality of life.

By the time Ellie reaches her forties in 2040:

• Quantum simulations refine climate crisis mitigation strategies, and synthetic organisms restore degraded ecosystems. These innovations mark a turning point in humanity’s battle against environmental degradation.
• Affordable healthcare, education, and food production, driven by AI and robotics, help to eradicate poverty globally. Societies flourish with equitable access to life’s essentials.
• Breakthroughs in disease eradication eliminate malaria and genetic disorders. AI-driven health monitoring extends lifespans and improves living standards worldwide.

As the decades pass:

• First human missions to Mars are launched, aided by AI navigation and autonomous habitat construction. Humanity’s interplanetary dreams begin to materialize.
• Quantum-enhanced sensors and telescopes accelerate the search for habitable exoplanets, expanding the boundaries of human knowledge. Unified theories of physics emerge, reshaping scientific understanding.

By 2050, Ellie's world is an interconnected civilization where quantum energy systems achieve climate neutrality, biodiversity loss is reversed, and poverty eradication is complete. Humanity thrives, venturing boldly into the cosmos while living harmoniously with nature.

I chose the character Ellie from the novel Contact by Carl Sagan, later adapted into the 1997 film. Dr. Ellie Arroway is a brilliant and determined scientist who embodies humanity's curiosity and hope. Her journey of discovery and first contact with an extraterrestrial civilization highlights the themes of peaceful exploration, the power of science, and the interconnectedness of humanity.

Rick's Descent: The Dark Path

For Rick, the early promise of technology turns into a nightmare by 2030:

• Generative AI becomes a tool for large-scale misinformation, deepfake campaigns, and societal manipulation. Bad actors weaponize AI to destabilize democracies and concentrate power in authoritarian regimes.
• Quantum breakthroughs, while remarkable, are exploited by cybercriminals, leading to financial collapses and widespread data insecurity. Personal and institutional trust erodes under constant threats.
• Automation displaces millions of workers, exacerbating unemployment and social inequality. The lack of effective regulation allows wealth to concentrate in the hands of a few tech monopolies.
• Engineered pathogens escape containment, resulting in pandemics that destabilize fragile nations. Bioterrorism risks escalate as synthetic biology tools become more accessible.

By the 2030s:

• Efforts to geoengineer the planet backfire, causing unintended ecological disasters. Rising sea levels and extreme weather displace millions, igniting a global refugee crisis.
• Economic divides widen as automation replaces jobs faster than societies can adapt. Slums swell as displaced workers flood cities, straining resources and creating humanitarian crises.
• AI-augmented regimes intensify control through predictive policing, censorship, and citizen scoring systems. Civil liberties vanish as surveillance becomes ubiquitous.

As Rick’s world descends further into chaos in the 2040s:

• Advanced AI systems become uncontrollable, causing accidents and cascading failures in infrastructure. Corporate monopolies dominate decision-making, marginalizing governments and public input.
• Autonomous weapons deployed in conflict zones wreak indiscriminate havoc, while quantum-powered cyberattacks destabilize critical infrastructure globally.
• Designer viruses are used in geopolitical conflicts, leading to recurring pandemics that devastate regions.

By 2050:

• Climate change becomes irreversible, with catastrophic impacts on ecosystems and human populations. Resource wars erupt over dwindling supplies of arable land and fresh water.
• A global underclass emerges, excluded from advanced technologies and societal decision-making. Inequities deepen as genetic divides separate the wealthy elite from the impoverished majority.
• AI-driven authoritarian regimes dominate large swaths of the globe. Freedoms are relics of the past, replaced by oppressive digital control systems. Nations focus on survival rather than progress, abandoning dreams of interstellar exploration.

Rick’s world teeters on the brink, defined by ecological collapse, societal fragmentation, and widespread despair. The promise of technology is overshadowed by its misuse, leaving humanity fractured and directionless.

I chose the character Rick Deckard from Philip K. Dick's novel Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?, which inspired the iconic film Blade Runner. Deckard is a skilled yet morally conflicted bounty hunter tasked with "retiring" rogue androids. His story delves into the complexities of identity, empathy, and what it means to be human, set against the backdrop of a hauntingly dystopian future.

The Choice Before Us

Ellie and Rick’s stories are not predestined; they are reflections of the choices we make in 2025 and beyond. Will we foster collaboration, ethical stewardship, and inclusivity to unlock the potential of these transformative technologies? Or will we succumb to short-sightedness and self-interest, allowing these tools to exacerbate division and destruction?

The fork in the road is clear. The decision, as ever, lies in our hands.

Culture Corner

Dystopian and Utopian Worlds in Sci-Fi Movies

Science fiction has long been a mirror reflecting humanity's hopes and fears about the future. Yet, when we dive into the stories told in sci-fi movies, a clear trend emerges: the vast majority lean toward dystopian visions. Approximately 75-80% of sci-fi films depict grim, cautionary worlds shaped by conflict, societal collapse, or the misuse of technology. In contrast, only 20-25% explore utopian or optimistic futures where humanity thrives, solves its challenges, and embraces its potential.

Why is this imbalance so pronounced? Dystopian tales naturally lend themselves to dramatic tension, a cornerstone of compelling storytelling. They captivate audiences by exploring the dire consequences of environmental degradation, authoritarian regimes, or technological overreach. These cautionary tales resonate deeply because they echo real-world anxieties, making their fictional struggles feel hauntingly relatable.

On the other hand, utopian stories face an uphill battle. They often lack the conflict necessary to drive traditional narratives and can be dismissed as overly idealistic or implausible, especially when juxtaposed with today’s complex challenges. Yet, when crafted well, these films offer much-needed glimpses of hope, inspiring us to imagine a better future.

This distribution between dystopian and utopian sci-fi highlights a fundamental tension in our cultural imagination: the pull between our fears of failure and our aspirations for progress. Both perspectives are crucial, offering caution and inspiration as we envision what lies ahead.

Here's my TOP 10 list for our dark and bright future:

Dystopian Futures

1. Blade Runner (1982, 2017 - Blade Runner 2049) A world of ecological collapse, societal decay, and blurred lines between humans and androids.
2. The Terminator (1984) Humanity is hunted by machines after a nuclear apocalypse, as an AI-driven network seeks to eradicate human resistance and secure its dominion over the planet.
3. The Matrix (1999) Humanity is enslaved by machines in a simulated reality while the real world deteriorates.
4. Elysium (2013) A stark divide between a privileged few living in a space utopia and the suffering masses left on Earth.
5. Gattaca (1997) A future of genetic discrimination and the commodification of human potential.
6. Children of Men (2006) A bleak vision of humanity facing extinction due to global infertility and societal collapse.
7. The Road (2009) A post-apocalyptic struggle for survival in a dying world.
8. Mad Max Series: A desert wasteland shaped by resource scarcity and violent warlords.
9. A Clockwork Orange (1971) A grim view of societal decay, featuring crime, corruption, and psychological manipulation.
10. The Hunger Games (2012-2015) A totalitarian regime forces citizens into deadly competitions to maintain control.

Utopian or Optimistic Futures

1. Contact (1997) Focuses on the optimistic idea of humanity making peaceful contact with extraterrestrial intelligence.
2. The Martian (2015) A hopeful story of ingenuity and international cooperation to rescue a stranded astronaut on Mars.
3. Her (2013) Explores the emotional potential of technology, imagining a world where human-AI relationships bring growth and self-discovery.
4. Interstellar (2014) While tinged with struggle, it ultimately portrays humanity’s resilience and ability to survive beyond Earth.
5. The Man from Earth (2007) A philosophical look at humanity’s evolution through the eyes of an immortal man.
6. Star Trek (Various films, 1979-present) Envisions a future where humanity has overcome war, poverty, and inequality to explore the stars peacefully.
7. WALL-E (2008) Despite its dystopian setting, it ends with hope for humanity’s return to sustainability and renewal.
8. Arrival (2016) A positive portrayal of humanity learning to communicate and cooperate with extraterrestrial beings.
9. Big Hero 6 (2014) A heartwarming story centered on friendship, innovation, and the positive use of technology.
10. Tomorrowland (2015) Celebrates the idea of innovation and optimism to build a better future.

I could have written tons of others, of course. Star Wars? It just doesn't fit anywhere. Is it a dystopia? Kind of. But there is always HOPE in it. The Foundation Series? I loved the original novels. But this new series? Not worth mentioning.

What is YOUR list of favourite positive and dark futures?

Quote for You

“The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars.” — Carl Sagan

Carl Sagan (November 9, 1934 – December 20, 1996) was an American astronomer and science communicator best known for his work on extraterrestrial life and demonstrating how amino acids could form under early Earth conditions. He created the first messages sent into space, including the Pioneer plaque and Voyager Golden Record, and championed the now-accepted idea that Venus's high temperatures are caused by the greenhouse effect.

I hope, you liked this piece.

Thanks for reading!

Wishing you a very Happy New Year, may it bring you the strength to make wise and meaningful decisions for a brighter future. ???????

??Until next time!

Zoltan

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