AI: The End of First Mover Advantage

I was on a conference call the other day talking about a newish technology and the implications it could have on our business. It revolved around an AI model that a company has spent years working to perfect. I was asked how I would go about doing something similar which is a fun thought exercise I had already entertained and even written a white paper on. However, the words that came out of my mouth might surprise you. I literally said that I thought it was solid technology that was approached the same way I would have done it. However, then I said, but at the rate that AI is evolving I would just wait a few weeks, months at best, and the generic models will already accommodate everything they have spent years trying to perfect. That is how fast AI is moving. It could spell the end of the first mover advantage in many ways. It also levels the playing field making once highly proprietary technology available to competitors faster.

It seems to me that the shift in thinking needs to be on how to incorporate this new technology that is becoming increasingly more available into market needs (creating products that meet existing or upcoming market needs). So as always we can still be innovative, it's just that the way we innovate needs to evolve as well. Some things that would have taken months or years to create from nothing can now be done in days, hours, or even minutes with tools that build on top of ChatGPT/OpenAI. That can be a scary thought to those of us that considered ourselves to be the people everyone would go to in order to build those models and algorithms from scratch.

If you have been following AI, you know that Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak, and others recently signed a petition asking for a pause in AI experiments because of the risk they pose to society. That may sound like crazy talk to some of you but I think it actually has merit. Part of me originally thought that if Musk had invented ChatGPT though he would think differently (maybe he just wants time to catch up). However, after more reflection I can certainly see the truth in some of the points that are being made. Depending on how we apply technologies like ChatGPT we could see unemployment rates skyrocket and other fallout as AI starts to replace more and more of what all of us somewhat clever folks used to do. Do we regulate it? Can we actually regulate it? Honestly, I think it's already too late for that. So once again we all need to adapt to our new reality. Before we all start to have a panic attack though let's get back to my original point related to the end or reduction of first mover advantages. Here are some reasons why I believe that is true:

1. Rapid development and innovation: The pace at which AI models are evolving is extraordinary. With constant improvements in algorithms, hardware, and data availability, breakthroughs are happening at a much faster rate than ever before. As a result, companies that once held a first-mover advantage can quickly find their position eroded by new entrants with more advanced AI models. All of that time and money spent is just gone.
2. Access to open-source resources: The AI research community has a strong tradition of sharing knowledge, open-source software, and pre-trained models. This openness allows new entrants to quickly catch up with established players by leveraging existing tools and resources. This democratization of knowledge if it continues will further erode the first mover advantage.
3. Shorter product life cycles: As AI models advance rapidly, product life cycles in the tech industry have become shorter. This means that even if a company is the first to launch a cutting-edge AI-driven product, competitors can quickly follow suit. People like me can just see the new use of AI and quickly say "me too, we do that too."
4. Scalability and adaptability of AI models: AI models like ChatGPT-4 can be easily fine-tuned, adapted, or scaled to various applications and industries, making it easier for new entrants to tailor AI solutions to specific needs. In fact, it will take significantly less development and thought talent to do this which is going to empower entrepreneurs more than ever. Now whatever a business visionary can think they can make happen with far less help.
5. Reducing barriers to entry: The decreasing costs of computing power, data storage, and AI development tools have made it easier for startups and smaller players to enter the market and compete with established tech giants. This reduces the first-mover advantage, as newcomers can quickly develop and deploy their own AI solutions, challenging the market leaders. That's not necessarily a bad thing just our new reality.

All of this may be a bit overwhelming to us if we aren't careful. However, we have to find a way to adapt and not let the fact that our first mover advantage will diminish. The relationships we create and how we connect this technology to address market needs will continue to be an advantage for a while. Business relationships, partnerships, and contracts still take a while (at least for us humans). I'm sure there are many other ways we can and will innovate but one thing is for sure. Our world has changed forever and some of the concepts that we held deeply like "first mover advantage" are quickly becoming a thing of the past.