AI eats software

Understand AI with my weekly updates

“The current generation of [LLMs] is a missile aimed, however unintentionally, directly at software production itself,”?argues investor Paul Kedrosky. The language of software is structured and formal so lends itself well to large language models. These models can generate code, even for non-coders, making software production more accessible and less complex. (The article itself is a bit long, so jump to the section labelled “Demographics, Aging, and the Coming Labor Disruption from LLMs.”)

The Microsoft paper?from earlier this week?pointed out that “Remarkably, GPT-4 executes the code directly, without translating it into other well-defined programming languages. This demonstrates the potential of AGI models as a novel tool for programming with natural language.” A technical example of this comes from Simon Wilison who uses OpenAI’s new plug-in architecture?to create an interface to a remote database?just using natural language.

From the perspective of the labour market, I suspect wage polarisation is a more likely outcome in the next few years. That is, the very best human coders (building these models) will be able to charge more, while the rump (say bottom nine deciles, for sake of argument) experience downward wage pressure. Equally, we’re seeing hints of new roles emerging, such as people employed to fine-tune, feedback, monitor and manage the performance of these models.?

From the perspective of the economy, the consequence might be to unfetter our imaginations on what could be built.?

This edition is supported by our knowledge partner, Singularity Group.

As Exponential View readers know well, the Exponential Age is here.?Singularity’s Executive Program?is designed to keep you ahead of the curve. Hosted in Silicon Valley, this 5-day in-person program will immerse you in the fundamentals of exponential mindset — and help you identify the abundant opportunities inherent in exponential technology.