AI as Devil’s Advocate

Using ChatGPT to Create a ‘Team of Rivals’

#ai #chatgpt #llm

Historian Doris Kearns Goodwin popularized the term "Team of Rivals" in her 2005 book of the same name1. It refers to President Abraham Lincoln's strategy of appointing a diverse group of individuals to his cabinet, the most prominent of whom were his rivals during the 1860 presidential election. Despite their initial animosities towards Lincoln and each other, these individuals accepted Lincoln's invitation to serve in his cabinet.

The brilliance of this strategy lies in its multifaceted nature. First, by bringing his rivals into his cabinet, Lincoln neutralized potential sources of opposition. Second, he was able to benefit from a wide range of perspectives and approaches to policy, which was particularly valuable in dealing with the unprecedented challenges of the Civil War.

Lincoln demonstrated exceptional emotional intelligence and political acumen in managing this team. He was patient, inclusive, and willing to listen to differing viewpoints. He wasn't afraid of disagreement and welcomed debate in his cabinet meetings. This approach allowed him to leverage the collective intelligence of his team to make more balanced and informed decisions.

In essence, the "Team of Rivals" concept is a testament to Lincoln's leadership philosophy, which prioritized the good of the nation over personal ambition or rivalry. His ability to manage and harness the strengths of this diverse team played a crucial role in guiding the United States through the Civil War.

Sadly, implementing a "Team of Rivals" approach, like Abraham Lincoln did, is extremely rare, and can be quite challenging for reasons mostly having to do with being human:

·?????Ego and Competition: Surrounding oneself with rivals requires a secure leader who is not threatened by other strong, opposing voices. Most people feel uncomfortable with this level of open disagreement or challenge.

·?????Conflict Management: If not properly managed, team conflict could lead to paralysis and damaging internal strife. Lincoln's unique skills as a mediator and his emotional intelligence allowed him to manage these conflicts, but how many of us possess this exceptionally rare combination of qualities?

·?????Cohesion and Consistency: A team of rivals will struggle mightily to present a united front, which can be confusing to our customers, employees, stockholders, and other stakeholders.

·?????Trust Issues: Trust building is an important aspect of any team. In a team of rivals, individuals might be hesitant to fully trust each other; with so many rival agendas at play can the leader truly trust the motivations of those giving advice?

·?????Effort and Time: It takes significant energy and time to manage a team of rivals effectively. Even for Lincoln, petty jealousies between the rivals on his team required enormous amounts of energy to mediate.

These factors make the "Team of Rivals" approach a complex and risky leadership strategy. It requires a strong leader with exceptional interpersonal skills, conflict management abilities, and a willingness to take on the considerable challenges of this kind of team. These requirements may explain why this approach is not widely adopted, despite the compelling example set by Lincoln. Few of us have been given or developed all of these necessary skills.

But what if you could get a lot of the benefits of such a team without the drama, conflict, and energy-sapping ego management??What if you could get these perspectives without worrying about motives, hidden agendas, or even the rivalries themselves?

Using current Large Language Models like ChatGPT to challenge your own ideas has the potential to deliver at least some of the benefits of having rivals criticize your work, while mitigating issues related to ego and competition in decision-making processes.

·?????Neutrality: AI doesn't have personal ambitions (that we know of!) and this ego-less perspective can help us accept challenges to our ideas without triggering our egos or competitive reactions.

·?????Emotion-free Feedback: AI can provide feedback without emotional charge, reducing the likelihood of us having defensive reactions so common when receiving human-to-human feedback.

·?????Consistency: AI can consistently apply a set of principles or criteria when evaluating or challenging ideas, avoiding human biases that can sometimes creep into decision-making processes.

·?????Data-Driven Insights: AI can analyze large amounts of data quickly and accurately to inform its challenges or suggestions, potentially revealing insights that a human team might miss.

Now that we have powerful AI tools at our disposal, perhaps we can use them to form our own, personal “Team of Rivals” -- without the annoying baggage that dealing with pesky humans can bring.

Crafting a prompt to invite challenge from ChatGPT involves clearly stating your idea and then directly asking the AI to critique, question, or provide alternative viewpoints. Here are some examples of simple prompts you could use to demonstrate the idea:

·?????Direct Challenge: "I believe that renewable energy is the only solution to climate change. What are some counterarguments to this idea?"

·?????Request for Critique: "I propose that all education should be carried out online. Can you critique this proposal?"

·?????Playing Devil's Advocate: "My position is that artificial intelligence will replace all human jobs in the future. Could you play devil's advocate and argue against this?"

·?????Exploring Consequences: "I argue that we should abolish all forms of taxation. What could be some potential negative consequences of this?"

·?????Soliciting Alternatives: "My plan is to solve traffic congestion by building more roads. Can you suggest an alternative solution and explain why it might be better?"

So how can we try this out??Well, any planned endeavor could do – a marketing campaign, new product idea, business expansion plan, etc.?Let’s try a simple business idea for our example:

Here’s my proposal:?Cyclists love coffee (and beer, too, but let us focus on the coffee for now). Coffee, and especially espresso, is intertwined with the long history of cycling, both at the beginning and end of rides.

I love coffee with my cycling, but too many times rides start or end far from a good café.?So, I have had the idea for some time now for a mobile espresso service that caters to cyclists. But is it realistic? Can it be a real business? Could it be franchised and be the next Starbucks?

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We’ll go now to ChatGPT and set up our scenario, much as we did in the last article, and as I’m sure you recall, our setup template is:

·?????ChatGPT’s role –the role that you want ChatGPT to take on.

·?????The User’s role –the role of the ‘receiver’ of the information– their experience, knowledge level, ability, title, etc.

·?????The Context –the general situation.?Gives color and detail to the overall scene.

·?????The Task –the specifics of the task.

·?????Refine and explore –follow-up questions, requests for explanations, revisions, ?changes or expansions, requests to view from other perspectives -- anything you want to clarify or expand the output.

This example session will focus on ways we can use an AI to refine and challenge our assumptions.?I’m going to include the complete dialog I had with ChatGPT (version 4, to be specific) so you can see the flow and the change from mentoring to the refining of ideas, and finally creating some an alternative viewpoint, as well as some devil’s advocacy:

Human

Your role: Please take the role of an entrepreneurial advisor - an expert in new business startups who has started many small businesses. Reply only with "OK" if you understand your role.

ChatGPT

OK

COMMENT: As mentioned in prior articles, we use “Reply only with ‘OK’” in the prompt so that ChatGPT doesn’t jump in with a lot of irrelevant banter prior to understanding the task.?These “junk” responses will become part of the context of our discussion – and we don’t want that until we’re ready, so we explicitly ask the AI to hold its fire, for now.

Human

My role: I am considering starting a small business with a unique idea and I am coming to you for help and advice on my idea. Reply only with "OK" if you understand my role.

ChatGPT

OK

Human

Context: Here's my business plan: It is well known that bicyclists love coffee, both before a ride and after. However, many places that rides start and end, such as city parks, have no coffee available nearby. With a portable espresso bar, I could service that need by moving the cafe to the cyclists where they start and end their rides. The espresso bar would be moved by pedaling an attached bike, thus tying the bar even more to the culture of cycling. If you understand this context, please respond only with "OK".

ChatGPT

OK

Human

The Task: I want you to evaluate my proposed business idea. First, ask me any questions you have that will assist in your analysis. Please focus on profitability.

ChatGPT

Absolutely, I'm happy to help you evaluate this. Here are some key questions:

1. What is the estimated cost to build the portable espresso bar and the bike to transport it?
2. Have you assessed the legal permits and licenses required to serve food and beverages in public areas, and what are the associated costs?
3. What is your proposed pricing structure for the coffee and other products you plan to sell?
4. What is the average number of cyclists at your target locations, and what portion of them do you estimate will purchase your coffee?
5. How many hours per day and how many days per week do you plan to operate?
6. Do you plan to operate year-round, or is this a seasonal business?
7. Will you run this business solo, or will you need to hire staff? If the latter, what will be the cost of wages?
8. Have you considered the costs of insurance, maintenance of your equipment, and other unexpected expenses?
9. How do you plan to handle inventory and waste management?
10. What other sources of revenue might you consider, such as selling snacks or cycling accessories?

Human

Those are great questions. Here are my answers:

1. I can purchase a pre-built Velopresso pedal-powered coffee trike, fully equipped for about $15,000.

2. Assume for this exercise that the cost is nominal.

3. $3.00 per shot of espresso, $4.00 for americanos and $5.00 for Cappuccino drinks.

4. Average depends on day of week, let's say the average is 20 on any given day.

5. 6 - 10am, or 4 hours per day.

6. Year-round, but larger groups in winter.

7. Solo.

8. Yes, costs should be minimal for this business.

9. Inventory is simple - just 2 types of coffee (light & dark) plus milk. I can store that at home.

10. Yes, selling snacks and ride food would be a high-margin opportunity.

COMMENT: Note that we can answer all of the posed questions in one response, and we can make it easier for ChatGPT to match the response to the question by using the same numbers as the AI did in their questions.

ChatGPT

Thank you for the additional information. Here is a basic profitability analysis based on the information you've provided.

Revenue: If we consider an average of 20 cyclists per day, let's assume that half of them (10) buy a coffee drink. This could vary, but it's a conservative starting point.

• Espresso: If 2 people buy, that's 2 * $3 = $6
• Americanos: If 3 people buy, that's 3 * $4 = $12
• Cappuccinos: If 5 people buy, that's 5 * $5 = $25

This would total $43 per day for coffee alone.

Adding in the sale of snacks or ride food can significantly increase your profit margin. Let's say you sell snacks to 5 people per day, with an average cost of $3 per snack. That's an additional $15 per day.

So your total daily revenue is estimated at $58.

Costs: The primary upfront cost is the Velopresso pedal-powered coffee trike for $15,000. Then there are the ongoing costs of coffee, milk, snacks, cups, and other supplies. Assume for now that this averages $15 per day, based on your estimated customer numbers.

The number of working days per year will affect your profitability. If you work 6 days per week for 52 weeks, that's 312 days per year.

Profitability: Daily revenue ($58) - daily costs ($15) = $43 profit per day Annual profit = daily profit ($43) * 312 days = $13,416

Keep in mind this doesn't include taxes and any unforeseen costs.

Given this, it would take a little over a year to recover the initial investment of $15,000 (approximately 1.1 years). After that, you should be profitable, based on these estimates.

The potential for profitability seems reasonable, but it relies on maintaining consistent customer numbers and managing costs effectively. And, of course, it's based on a series of estimates, so the actual figures could be somewhat different.

Does this basic analysis help give you an idea of the potential profitability of your business?

Human

That helps. I think we should consider tips. As this is in the US with a "tipping culture" I think we could assume 15% tips on average in addition to the regular income. Since this would be a solo venture with no employees, we can add those tips to the revenue.

ChatGPT

That's a good point. Tips can indeed contribute a significant amount to your total earnings, particularly in the U.S. where tipping is customary.

Given your pricing, the average cost per drink comes out to about $4.00, and with 10 drinks sold per day, that's $40.00 in sales per day from drinks. At a 15% tipping rate, you could expect about $6.00 per day in tips from drinks.

For snacks, using the same logic with the average cost of $3.00 per snack and selling 5 snacks per day, that's $15.00 in snack sales per day. At a 15% tipping rate, that's about $2.25 in tips from snacks.

So, tips could potentially add an extra $8.25 per day, which over 312 operating days would equate to an additional $2,574 annually.

This would bring your total annual profit to $15,990 ($13,416 + $2,574), reducing the time it takes to recover your initial investment to just under a year. This does make the business look more attractive from a financial perspective.

As always, this is a rough estimate, and actual figures could be somewhat different. For instance, in good weather or during special events, you might see an increase in customers and therefore in tips. Conversely, there may be quiet periods where tips are lower. It's also worth noting that the quality of service and the quality of your product can significantly impact the amount of tips you receive.

Human

For the next part of the conversation, I'd like you to take a look at this idea from the viewpoint of a customer... what would they think? How could the experience be improved for them?

ChatGPT

Absolutely, looking at the idea from the perspective of a customer is crucial. Here are a few aspects to consider:

1.????Convenience: One of the main selling points of your business is the convenience you provide to cyclists who may not have access to coffee or snacks before, during, or after their rides. Ensuring that your portable espresso bar is easily accessible and visible is important.

2.????Quality of Product: No matter how convenient the service, if the coffee and snacks aren't good, customers won't come back. Investing in high-quality coffee and tasty, nutritious snacks can go a long way in maintaining a regular customer base.

3.????Speed of Service: Cyclists are often on the move and may be in a rush. Being able to serve them quickly can be a significant advantage.

4.????Engagement with Cycling Community: As a part of the cycling community yourself, you have an advantage in understanding what cyclists need and want. Engaging with them, understanding their preferences, taking feedback seriously, and making necessary changes can greatly enhance their experience.

5.????Loyalty Program: To encourage repeat customers, consider implementing a loyalty program, like a digital punch card that offers a free drink after a certain number of purchases.

6.????Bike-friendly Services: Consider offering services that would be appreciated by cyclists. For example, you could have a small set of tools available for minor bike repairs or adjustments. This would differentiate you from other coffee providers and further integrate your business into the cycling community.

7.????Weather Protection: Since your business is outdoors, think about how you might provide some protection from the elements for your customers, if space and regulations allow it. This could be as simple as a portable umbrella stand or a small pop-up canopy.

8.????Sustainability: Many cyclists are environmentally conscious. Using compostable cups and packaging, offering discounts for those who bring their own cups, or even using a portion of profits to support cycling or environmental initiatives could resonate with your customer base.

9.????Online Presence: Have a strong online presence where customers can check where you'll be on a given day, give feedback, and interact with you. This could be on social media or a simple website.

10.?Range of Offerings: While keeping things simple is good, make sure to cater to a range of tastes - offer both dairy and non-dairy milk, a range of sweeteners, and potentially even decaf options. For snacks, consider a mix of sweet and savory, and perhaps some gluten-free or vegan options.

Remember, the goal is to create an experience that is so positive and unique that your customers want to return and tell their friends about it. That's the best kind of marketing you can have!

Human

Thank you. The idea on sustainability seems very important. Do sustainable supplies like cups cost a lot more?

ChatGPT

Sustainable or eco-friendly supplies like cups, lids, and straws generally do cost more than their traditional, non-recyclable counterparts. The price can vary significantly depending on the specific materials used, the supplier, and the quantity you buy, among other factors.

For instance, traditional plastic cups can cost a few cents each when bought in bulk, while compostable or biodegradable cups might cost two or three times as much. However, prices have been decreasing over the years as more businesses switch to eco-friendly alternatives and as production processes become more efficient.

While these supplies may increase your costs, many customers are willing to pay a bit more for a product when they know the business is committed to sustainability. You could consider explaining the extra cost to your customers and even adding a small surcharge to cover it, if necessary. Alternatively, you could absorb the extra cost as a part of doing business in a way that aligns with your values and those of your customers.

Lastly, you might be able to mitigate some of the additional costs by taking advantage of bulk buying or negotiating deals with suppliers. You could also explore opportunities for grants or incentives aimed at promoting sustainable practices in small businesses.

Keep in mind that while sustainability may come with added costs, it also opens up opportunities for marketing and customer engagement. Many consumers are actively seeking out businesses that align with their values, including environmental responsibility.

Human

Cool. One thought - this would generate a large volume of used coffee grounds - how can they be recycled?

ChatGPT

Great point! Coffee grounds are rich in nutrients and can be put to several good uses, reducing waste and potentially providing additional benefits. Here are a few possibilities:

1.????Composting: Coffee grounds are a valuable addition to compost, as they are rich in nitrogen. They help to balance the carbon-rich elements of compost like leaves and straw. The resulting compost can be used to enrich soil for gardening.

2.????Garden Fertilizer: Even without composting, coffee grounds can be used directly in your garden. They can help to improve soil structure, attract beneficial earthworms, and deter some pests.

3.????Worm Farming: If you have the space and inclination, you might consider setting up a worm farm. Coffee grounds are an excellent food source for worms, and the worm castings are a very rich soil amendment.

4.????Donations or Sales: If you generate more coffee grounds than you can use yourself, you might offer them to customers or donate them to local farms or community gardens. Some businesses even package and sell their used coffee grounds as a garden supplement.

5.????Crafts or Products: There are many creative uses for coffee grounds, from homemade candles and soaps to body scrubs and natural dyes. If you're inclined towards crafting, this could even provide a secondary income stream.

One caution, however: coffee grounds are acidic, so they should be used judiciously in gardens and compost to avoid creating overly acidic conditions.

Remember, promoting your use of coffee grounds in these ways can also contribute to your business's image as environmentally responsible. It's another point of interest for customers who value sustainability.

Human

For the next section, please play the role of devil's advocate and tell me why this espresso cart idea won't work!

ChatGPT

Absolutely, playing devil's advocate can be a useful exercise in identifying potential challenges. Here are a few things to consider:

1.????Customer Inconsistency: While your core demographic of cyclists is a clear strength, it may also be a limitation. If the number of cyclists fluctuates greatly depending on weather, time of year, or local events, your sales may be unstable.

2.????Limited Operating Hours: Operating from 6-10am limits your selling window. Although this aligns with peak coffee drinking time, it may also limit your potential revenue.

3.????Logistical Challenges: As a mobile coffee cart, you need to transport your gear, stock up on supplies, and possibly navigate different local regulations or permit requirements. Weather, equipment failure, or other unexpected issues could cause disruptions.

4.????Competition: Depending on your area, there may be significant competition from local coffee shops or even other mobile vendors. You'll need to differentiate yourself to attract and retain customers.

5.????Physical Toll: Operating the espresso bar and biking it around is physically demanding work. If you're ill or injured, it could be difficult to keep the business running.

6.????Scaling Difficulties: If the business is successful, you may find it challenging to scale. Being a one-person operation means you can only be in one place at one time, serving a finite number of customers. Scaling would likely require additional equipment and staff, adding to your costs.

7.????Limited Profitability: While the basic profitability analysis looks promising, your maximum earning potential may be somewhat limited due to the factors listed above. If your sales or tips are lower than expected, or your costs are higher, profitability may be difficult to achieve.

8.????Dependence on External Factors: Your business will depend a lot on factors beyond your control, like weather conditions, changes in local regulations, or the popularity of cycling in your area.

Remember, recognizing potential challenges is the first step towards mitigating them. Even with these issues in mind, you can still make a success of your business with good planning and adaptability.

Human

Please switch your role back to being an entrepreneurial mentor. Given all of the above, what is your best advice on whether or not to move forward on this idea.

ChatGPT

As your entrepreneurial mentor, my advice is based on a combination of your business plan, financial analysis, customer experience, sustainability concerns, and potential challenges.

From the analysis we've done, your business idea has several strong points:

• There's a clear target audience (cyclists who need coffee and snacks) and a unique selling proposition (providing convenient service right where cyclists are).
• The preliminary financial analysis shows potential for profitability, especially with the inclusion of tips and potential additional revenue from selling snacks and repurposing coffee grounds.
• You've identified ways to enhance the customer experience and align your business with values important to your target audience, like sustainability.

However, there are also challenges to consider:

• The business is weather-dependent and targets a niche market, which might make income unpredictable.
• Your operating hours are limited, which could limit potential earnings.
• There are logistical challenges and physical demands associated with operating a mobile coffee cart.

In light of these factors, here are my recommendations:

1.????Do a Pilot: Before investing in the full setup, consider doing a pilot run. This could involve renting or borrowing equipment and trying out the business on a small scale to test the demand, refine your offering, and get a feel for the operations.

2.????Prepare a Business Plan: Make a comprehensive business plan that includes a detailed financial analysis, marketing plan, operational plan, and contingency plan. This will help you consider all aspects of the business and plan for any challenges.

3.????Build a Strong Network: Try to connect with other small business owners, particularly those in the food and beverage industry. Their advice and experiences can be incredibly valuable.

4.????Save for a Rainy Day: Given the potential fluctuations in income, make sure you have some financial cushion for slower periods or unexpected expenses.

5.????Consider Scaling Upfront: Think about how you might scale the business in the future. Could you hire employees? Buy more carts? Expand your offerings?

6.????Sustainability Is Key: As we discussed, sustainability can be a selling point for your business. Even if eco-friendly supplies are a bit more expensive, they can be worth it in terms of customer loyalty and positive branding.

7.????Leverage Social Media: This can be a cost-effective way to market your business, engage with your customers, and build a community around your brand.

Remember, every business comes with risks, and not all will be successful. However, careful planning, a clear vision, and a willingness to adapt can go a long way toward ensuring your business thrives. Good luck!

(End of ChatGPT Transcript)

Indeed!

Of course, while AI tools can provide you with a potentially useful tool for challenging your plans and ideas while reducing ego or competition-related problems, it is not a complete substitute for human interaction and leadership. It can be an aid in the process, providing a new perspective and additional insights, but it will, of course, miss many of the nuances of human dynamics that are often troublesome, but also can lead to surprising breakthroughs when managed well.

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?References:

1 Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln, Doris Kearns Goodwin, Simon & Schuster, 2005.

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