Will AI Destroy Jobs? - Part 1
This graphic from the WSJ makes you skeptical about that claim.
Although spreadsheets were clearly a very disruptive technology for clerical work such as bookkeeping and simple accounting, it took 30 years for the number of jobs in such professions to decline by half. During the same period, the number of management and financial analysts, accountants and auditors, i.e. jobs strongly enabled or supported by spreadsheet technology, increased fourfold.
Another interesting benchmark is the number of professional translators, a profession that at first glance could be considered almost superfluous with the advent of high-performing machine translation tools such as DeepL or Google Translate. One data point: according to Statista this number increased in Germany from 6,985 to 8,304 between 2012 and 2021, although it reached its maximum at 8,962 in 2027 and has been declining by roughly 7 percent in the second half of this period. Extrapolate this trend, and you will again see that a halving might take almost 30 years.
These data seem to support the view that AI will ultimately not destroy jobs but increase productivity. Although it remains a mystery why this increase in productivity takes so long and looks so much smaller than could be anticipated.
BDPartners.cz , PPF, McKinsey, VC investments
1 年yes but none of these technologies generated content similarly to what AI does. that is potentially a very big difference.
AI Content Director
1 年Interessant. Mit derselben Frage besch?ftigt sich Deutschlandfunk Kultur. Das Feuilleton im Radio in der letzten Folge des Stunde 1 Labors https://www.deutschlandfunkkultur.de/kuenstliche-intelligenz-und-die-neuen-maschinenstuermer-dlf-kultur-a90bd3c0-100.html. Und kommt zum ?hnlichen Ergebnis.