Beyond the Hype: Do New Technologies Always Need New Devices?
Saad Fazil
Driving global transformation through intelligent and scalable AI-driven solutions
With the impending failure of the AI Pin (1), it's worth asking: do new technological waves always necessitate a new device form factor? In other words, will the current wave of AI inevitably lead to entirely new device types? To answer this, let's explore historical paradigm shifts (2) and their impact on form factors.
Personal Computing: Mainframe on Your Desk
As chips got smaller and computing power grew, so did the possibility of packing it into smaller devices – ones that could fit right on your desk. This birthed the era of personal computers (PCs and Macs), where increasingly powerful machines enabled groundbreaking applications like spreadsheets.
The Internet: An Information Revolution (Without a New Device)
The internet revolutionized communication and information access. Unlike personal computing, however, the technology itself wasn't synonymous with a new form factor. While the internet existed before graphical interfaces, it became truly transformative once users could navigate the web with a mouse and could click on links. This doesn't constitute a new form factor per se, but it's a noteworthy advancement in user interaction.
Mobile: A New Era of Connection
Early mobile phones weren't powerhouse computers, but the ability to stay connected on the go offered immense value. Similar to personal computing, the technology itself was synonymous with the new form factor. While the internet ultimately fueled a more transformative mobile revolution, mobile devices were inherently valuable even without it. Cellular communication architecture, not the internet, dictated the mobile form factor, allowing communication technology to fit in a portable device.
Cloud and Smartphone: Era of the Apps
It would not be an exaggeration to state that Apple single-handedly created a new type of human-machine interaction with the touch, which led to the development of a groundbreaking form factor known as smartphones. Preceding attempts like the Blackberry were interesting, but none could fully leverage the internet's potential without the newly needed interaction paradigm. Graphical interfaces made the internet more accessible, while the touch interface spearheaded the smartphone revolution. Cloud that happened essentially behind the scenes further accelerated this wave.
AI: A New Chapter in Human-Computer Interaction
Our historical analysis reveals that new technological waves don't always necessitate entirely new form factors. Predicting their emergence is also notoriously difficult. Additionally, even new human-machine interfaces don't always demand a complete device overhaul. Graphical interfaces enhanced PCs but didn't reinvent the core form factor. However, touch-based interaction, coupled with the cloud (often invisible to users), did spawn a new device category: the modern smartphone.
Generative AI represents a significant evolution in human-computer interaction, empowering users to accomplish tasks through spoken or written natural-language instructions. This emphasizes a shift towards interfaces rooted in human language. Yet, the underwhelming performance of smart speakers and the anticipated failure of AI Pin (with the R1 likely to follow suit) suggest that voice interfaces won't entirely supplant traditional input methods. Instead, existing devices like smartphones and smartwatches stand to benefit more from this advancement than entirely new gadgets.
For those exploring novel form factors, niche devices such as Limitless's Pendant present intriguing possibilities. While they may not disrupt established formats like smartphones, they could establish valuable niches. Virtual Reality (VR) and Mixed Reality (MR) devices also hold promise, though widespread adoption may require a longer timeframe—potentially spanning another decade.
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Co-Founder @ Data I Am
7 个月An MVP version of the Ai Pin is https://www.senstone.io . I have no relationship with the company. It deserves a shoutout for not overthinking.