AI in 2025: Predictions, Hype, and Hard Truths with Dave Kellogg [Newsletter #37]

Hello, AI enthusiasts from all around the world! Welcome to the weekly newsletter for the AI and The Future of Work Podcast.

Looking back at 2024 in the AI world, was it a good or bad year?

It certainly wasn't a quiet year, and that's great. All these developments help accelerate AI's implementation in our daily lives.?

However, we want this acceleration to be healthy and beneficial.?

That's why it's not only about what's happening today. It's also about yesterday's promises, hypes, hits, and misses and the excitement for tomorrow.?

This issue explores this fine balance between past, present, and future with a reference to the tech world and the first-ever four-time guest in our podcast!?

Let's dive into this week's highlights! ??

??? New Podcast Episode With Dave Kellogg- EIR at Balderton Capital, serial tech CEO and CMO, and a SaaS metrics expert

Anyone involved in AI knows there's a lot of hype, which can reach unhealthy levels.?

Such fever dreams can take away from objectivity, or even hamper the adequate use of AI right now.?

That's why finding someone who looks beyond the hype and more into what's happening is always refreshing.?

One of them is Dave Kellogg—EIR at Balderton Capital, independent consultant, author of Kellblog, social change advocate, and a pioneer in SaaS metrics.

Every year, he diligently predicts what will happen and what won't in the tech world.?

But that's not the best part. He always looks back and grades himself, not holding back. In the words of our CEO, Dan Turchin, “Dave Kellogg is a harsh grader”.?

After all, Dave has earned a reputation as a sharp analyst of industry trends in the SaaS world. His site, Kellblog, is a reference point for those wanting to learn more about marketing, positioning, metrics, etc. You can check it out here.?

Dave sat down with Dan Turchin to review his 2024 prediction grades from Kellblog and share the biggest lessons for 2025. Plus, he discusses:

• How we search for information will change as traditional SEO may die. Now, PR is the new SEO since we search for answers, not links.?
• Venture capital is evolving as AI-first companies reshape funding strategies. This has the unusual consequence of widening the gap between US and European investment trends.
• Branding has gone through an unlikely revival, as companies are rediscovering brand differentiation in a "sea of sameness" where SaaS products look increasingly alike.
• AI's impact on SaaS metrics and go-to-market strategies—can AI-driven sales and marketing tools help companies achieve the Rule of 40?
• The future of LinkedIn and social media in business hangs in the balance, especially as Dave fears LinkedIn's engagement-driven model and why it might be entering the "social media death cycle."

This issue is inspired by our conversation with Dave Kellogg in the latest podcast episode of AI and the Future of Work.?

?? Listen to the full episode embedded below to hear Dave's perspectives on an exciting 2025 and much more!?

Here's the link if you want to connect with Dave Kellogg. Stay up to date on our latest work at AI and the Future of Work (including our interview with SC Moatti!). Let him know that you heard his podcast!?

???AI Fun Fact Article

The AI world loves predicting stuff, but predictions need accountability (as you have seen from our interview with Dave Kellogg). It's always healthy to look back at them, to see what was right and wrong.?

At the same time, Dave isn't the only one making predictions.?

Ben Dickson, from VentureBeat, makes four bold predictions for AI in 2025. He starts by predicting that interference costs for AI runtime usage will plummet. Then, he explains that reasoning models, where LLMs "think" for longer, will rise, triggering a new race within AI.?

These are only two of the four, but our CEO, Dan Turchin, urges caution when using the adjective "bold" to describe what could happen with AI in 2025. It's important to remember that hype about the potential for AI and AI agents will hopefully crest soon.?

Everything bold and provocative, from the death of SaaS to the rise of immortality, has already been predicted.?

Instead, 2025 should be a year when we digest what we've been fed and shift the focus to implementing AI responsibly.?

If you want to read about the other two predictions, you can check out the full article here.?

We'd love to hear your thoughts on the trend of "bold" predictions, so comment below!?

Listener Spotlight

Bertram, from San Francisco, is a food tech VC and listens while making dinner.?

Bertram's favorite episode is with JP Vasseur, a former Cisco Distinguished Engineer with more than 600 patents! This was an excellent discussion about the future of AI and network engineering.?

You can check out the conversation here.?As always, we love hearing from you!?

Want to be featured in our next episode or newsletter? Comment and let us know how you tune in and your favorite episode.

???Worth a Read

Most companies at the heart of the AI discussion are linked to the US or China. Europe, on the other hand, has lagged, and this is worth analyzing.?

After all, the European Union was hailed as a groundbreaker in data privacy not long ago. In 2018, the EU implemented the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), a term we're all too familiar with. It was the backbone of uniformity in sanctioning data breaches.?

We'd love to hear your thoughts on this new artist–send us your comments!

As with any regulation, the GDPR has been scrutinized, with many applauding its harmonization of laws and the increase in data breach notifications. In short, we're now more aware of whether we're vulnerable.

On the other hand, there are negative consequences that we must also analyze. This article invites you to study both sides and come up with your conclusion.?

Now, the GDPR is in the spotlight—but for a different reason.

Axel Voss writes for the Centre For European Policy Studies that the GDPR could be more of a roadblock than anything else today.?

Voss argues that data is the currency of progress in the present. Without access to data, AI models cannot learn, limiting aspects such as medical development and business optimization.?

However, we cannot simply eliminate the GDPR. Instead, we must consciously try to change how we view risk.?

It's not going to be easy, but if the EU wants to compete in the AI race, Voss urges a pragmatic, balanced revision.?

This topic will become increasingly important.?

If you want to learn more about it, check out Voss's article, and let us know what you think by commenting!?

From Consumers to Creators: The UGC Revolution ??

We're at a point where everyone has access to a fantastic array of tools and platforms.?

This has sparked a new era of user-generated content (UGC).?

We read a stat that blew our minds. Between 2023 and 2024, UGC creators grew by 93%.?

So, why is this a good thing??

Because UGC is more authentic and engaging. Instead of strict design and marketing parameters, individuals bring their taste and persona, diversifying products.?

Standing out is always good, especially in an era where we have a "Sea of Sameness," as our guest Dave Kellogg said.?

This article explains more about the rise in UGC creators and where it could lead. What are some of your favorite UGC creators? Let us know with a comment!?

That’s a Wrap for This Week! ??

This week, we explored how AI is reshaping the way we search, market, and invest.?

Dave Kellogg’s interview reminded us why looking beyond the hype and focusing on real impact is what separates great ideas from fleeting trends.?

We hope his insights sparked new ways for you to think about AI’s evolving role in your work.

We want to hear what you have to say! Your feedback helps us improve and ensures we continue to deliver valuable insights to our podcast listeners. So, leave a review here!

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