Ahmed Madobe’s Calculated Political Moves at the NCC: A Champion for Unity and Federalism in Somali Federal Government

In the latest National Consultative Council (NCC) meeting held in Mogadishu in October 2024, Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe has once again positioned himself as a pivotal figure in Somali politics. The meeting, chaired by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, was meant to address critical issues such as the democratization process and the roadmap for the 2026 elections. However, it was Madobe’s fierce opposition and his call for greater inclusivity, particularly regarding Puntland and the SSC regions, that truly defined the event. His stance is not just about elections but symbolizes the larger, ongoing struggle over Somalia’s federal system and national unity.

Madobe’s Opposition to One-Person, One-Vote Election

At the heart of the controversy during the NCC meeting was the federal government's push for a one-person, one-vote election system in Somalia to be implemented by 2026. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, along with other regional leaders from Hirshabelle, Galmudug, and Southwest states, backed this proposal as part of the broader agenda to democratize Somalia. However, Ahmed Madobe emerged as the primary voice of dissent. He argued that the country was not yet ready for such a system and pushed for indirect elections, emphasizing the need for gradual reforms that reflect Somalia's unique clan-based political framework.

For Madobe, the proposal to move toward direct elections was seen as a threat to the regional autonomy that Jubaland, along with other federal member states, had fought hard to maintain. His opposition, far from being merely obstructionist, reflected his concerns about the fragility of the country's political institutions and the risks of centralization, which could undermine regional governments and exacerbate political tensions. This was especially significant as Somalia continues to struggle with issues of security, governance, and clan-based power dynamics.

A Calculated Appeal to Unity: The Call for Puntland and SSC

Perhaps the most politically astute move from Madobe during the NCC meeting was his vocal support for the inclusion of Puntland and the SSC (Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn) regions in future discussions. Both Puntland and the SSC had notably boycotted the meeting due to ongoing disagreements with the federal government over its perceived overreach. Puntland, in particular, has consistently criticized President Hassan Sheikh's administration for what it sees as efforts to undermine the autonomy of federal member states.

Madobe, aware of the power vacuum left by Puntland’s absence, positioned himself as a representative not only of Jubaland but of the broader Darood clan, which also holds significant influence in Puntland and the SSC regions. In doing so, he highlighted the fact that any meaningful progress toward national elections or a unified Somalia cannot be achieved without the participation of all key regions. Madobe’s message was clear: without Puntland and SSC at the table, any electoral process or even national unity would be incomplete and, thus, not negotiable.

This strategic move was seen as an attempt to consolidate his position within the broader Darood political sphere, signaling that he alone was capable of representing their interests while their seats remained empty. By making this call, Madobe was able to portray himself as a statesman concerned with Somalia’s long-term stability and unity rather than just his personal or regional interests. His stance attracted not only Darood supporters but also those who view Somali unity as paramount, offering him political capital beyond his own state.

A Standoff with the Federal Government

Madobe’s rejection of the federal government’s election proposal was not an isolated incident but part of a larger pattern of resistance against the centralization of power in Mogadishu. Over the years, Madobe has maintained a reputation for being fiercely protective of Jubaland’s autonomy, frequently clashing with federal leaders over issues of authority, governance, and resource control. This latest episode is a continuation of that struggle, with Madobe refusing to allow the federal government to dictate terms that could weaken his state’s power.

The talks between Madobe and President Hassan Sheikh, alongside Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, failed to break the deadlock. Despite closed-door meetings and multiple attempts at persuasion, Madobe remained steadfast in his opposition, insisting on indirect elections and emphasizing the importance of regional consultations before any major electoral reforms are implemented.

Furthermore, Madobe’s broader concerns about the democratization process reflect the ongoing frustrations with unmet promises. The federal government and the NCC had previously pledged to hold district-level direct elections by June 2024, a promise that has yet to be fulfilled. This failure has eroded public confidence in the electoral process, with many Somalis growing increasingly skeptical of the federal government's ability to deliver on its commitments. Madobe’s resistance to direct elections, in this context, is seen by some as a pragmatic approach, reflecting the reality on the ground rather than idealistic aspirations.

The Risk of New Divisions and Regional Tensions

If the NCC meeting fails to reach a unified position, it could lead to deeper divisions within Somalia. The lack of consensus, especially with key regions like Puntland and SSC absent from the discussions, threatens to further fragment the country. Such a division could spark new waves of instability as regional administrations increasingly distance themselves from the federal government in Mogadishu. Moreover, this internal discord comes at a time when Somalia's neighbors, particularly Ethiopia, are closely monitoring the situation. Tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia have been rising, with both countries concerned about security and MOU disputes. If Somalia's political leaders fail to present a united front, it could invite further external interference, exacerbating regional tensions and undermining efforts toward national unity.

Madobe’s Political Calculations and Future Prospects

Ahmed Madobe’s actions at the NCC meeting have only bolstered his reputation as a shrewd political operator. His ability to navigate the complexities of Somali politics—shifting alliances when necessary while remaining firm on key issues—has kept him relevant despite numerous challenges. His opposition to the federal government’s centralizing tendencies resonates not only with his base in Jubaland but also with other federal member states that share his concerns about the erosion of regional autonomy.

Moreover, Madobe’s call for the inclusion of Puntland and the SSC regions has strengthened his image as a champion of Somali unity. In a political environment where clan dynamics often dominate, his appeal to broader national interests has positioned him as a leader capable of transcending regional and clan loyalties. This has earned him respect, even among those outside the Darood clan, who view him as a necessary counterbalance to the federal government’s increasing centralization.

Looking ahead, Madobe’s political future appears secure, especially if he can maintain the delicate balance between protecting Jubaland’s interests and advocating for a more inclusive and consultative national governance framework. His ability to resist federal overreach while also positioning himself as a unifying figure ensures that he will remain a key player in Somali politics for the foreseeable future.

Conclusion: A Champion for Federalism and Unity

The recent NCC meeting in Mogadishu highlighted Ahmed Madobe’s enduring influence in Somali politics. His strong opposition to direct elections and his calculated call for the inclusion of Puntland and SSC has reaffirmed his position as a protector of regional autonomy and a champion of national unity. While the deadlock over elections continues, Madobe’s actions have shifted the focus from immediate electoral reforms to the larger question of Somalia’s political future. In doing so, he has ensured that his voice—and that of the regions he represents—will not be ignored in the ongoing struggle for Somalia’s democratization.

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Mohamud A. Ahmed – Cagaweyne

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