Ahead of the Curve: September 2024
Capital Economics
Capital Economics is an award-winning provider of independent macroeconomic analysis, forecasts and consultancy.
How much has China been behind this year’s astonishing gold rally? Are imbalances a threat to global stability? Did Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks open the door to a 50-basis-point rate cut? All these questions and more are answered by the analysis highlighted in the latest Ahead of the Curve. Start exploring and find out how we’ve been helping Capital Economics clients make more informed decisions.
Read: How imbalances fuel a fracturing world economy
A ballooning US current account deficit and associated Chinese surplus reflect a growing global economic faultline. This analysis explores the threat these imbalances pose to financial stability but also what they mean for a world economy that is fracturing into competing blocs.
Listen: What Powell said at Jackson Hole
Soon after Jerome Powell delivered his remarks to the Fed’s annual symposium at Jackson Hole, our economists were on our weekly podcast discussing what he said and what it means for policy. Their discussion ranges from whether easing will begin with 25 or 50 basis points, whether the Fed is moving too late, and beyond.
Listen to the podcast
Read: China’s gold rush has much further to run
领英推荐
Chinese demand has played a key role in the dramatic run-up in the gold price this year – and it's not just to do with People’s Bank of China buying. This exploration of China’s appetite for the yellow metal looks at who’s been buying, why they’ve been buying and how the country’s economic slowdown will only increase demand.
Watch: EM financial risk update – The state of sovereign, bank and FX vulnerabilities
Clients use our EM Financial Risk Indicators as an early warning system to identify where the next blow-up is likely to occur – or which EM assets are worth taking a fresh look at. In this online briefing, Senior EM Economist Liam Peach walked clients through the latest refresh of our interactive dashboard to talk about rising Saudi bank risk, why Argentina’s FX risk is so concerning, and more.
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