Ahead of the Curve: January 2025

The first edition of Ahead of the Curve for 2025 takes in the key themes of the coming year to help you navigate the ever-changing macro and market environment. It unpacks how Donald Trump’s return will influence the US-China bilateral relations, outlines our non-consensus S&P 500 forecasts, and explains why Germany’s economy is in such a bad state.

Read: Trump, US-China and a fracturing global economy

The breakdown in US-China relations is the global macro story of our time. With the return of Donald Trump setting the stage for a more intensified geo-economic rivalry, this in-depth report explores what to expect from this next phase of global economic fracturing.?

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Read: Why the S&P 500 will thrive in 2025

The sceptics said our forecasts were overly bullish, but our end-2024 call for the S&P 500 to hit 6,000 was pretty much on the money. Here we explain why we think this year will bring another year of double-digit gains for US equities – and the risks to that prediction.

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Watch: The World in 2025

Watch our special on-demand briefing with the senior economist team for key 2025 trends shaping the global economy and markets, including US policy shifts, Europe's economic challenges, China's growth headwinds, and global inflation and interest rate dynamics.

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Watch: The slow agony of Germany’s auto industry

At the heart of a struggling euro-zone sits a struggling German economy. And at the heart of that economy sits an auto industry reeling from local and global forces that threaten years more of decline. Our senior Europe economists briefed clients on the grim future for Germany’s carmakers, and what that means for its economic outlook.

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