Ahead of the Curve: February 2024
Capital Economics
Capital Economics is an award-winning provider of independent macroeconomic analysis, forecasts and consultancy.
Global disinflation, the sustainability of the US stock boom, China’s failing reform grade and Mexican friendshoring hype – explore what Capital Economics clients are watching, listening to and reading in the latest edition of our monthly newsletter.
Read: Global Inflation Watch – Will the last mile be the hardest?
The popular view that the easy part of the disinflation journey is over, with only hard graft ahead, is based on a misread of the data. Our Global team make the case for inflation in major developed markets being back at target by mid-year.
Listen: Maximum bullish on US stocks
Our eight-month old 5,500 end-2024 forecast for the S&P 500 is still one of the most bullish in the market. Chief Markets Economist John Higgins joined this episode of our weekly podcast to explain what we think will drive another year of strong gains for US stocks – and when we think the bubble will burst.
Listen to the podcast
Read: China – Still unbalanced, still unsustainable
Our assessment of China’s reform progress makes grim reading. Despite repeated commitments from the government, the economy remains unsustainably addicted to investment, particularly construction. This informs our non-consensus 2% growth forecast and is why we see an increasingly painful adjustment on the horizon.
Watch: Mexico – Will nearshoring live up to the hype?
The excitement around about the apparent shift of manufacturing capacity to Mexico has been a big booster for its financial markets. But there may be less of a shift than meets the eye. Watch this recording of our recent Mexico client briefing to learn more.
Watch on-demand