Ahead of the Curve: August 2024
Capital Economics
Capital Economics is an award-winning provider of independent macroeconomic analysis, forecasts and consultancy.
This August newsletter highlights US recession risks, our latest assessment of financial risk in emerging markets, the shape and scope of CRE recoveries, and client questions around the post-plenum outlook for China’s economy.
Read: No, a US recession still doesn’t look likely
Fears about a US recession have shaken global markets following the release of soft employment data. But this analysis draws on our proprietary US Scenarios dashboard to explain why, although risks are rising, a hard landing isn’t our base case.
Read: Trump’s campaign rhetoric vs governing reality
Widespread fears about what another four years of Donald Trump could mean for the US economy are based in part on the idea that what’s he’s proposing on the campaign trail gets implemented in full on day one. The reality would be far different – with very different implications for the economic outlook.
Listen: Is commercial real estate turning a corner?
This special episode of our weekly podcast focuses on which of the US, UK and Europe will lead the global commercial real estate recovery. The conversation with Kiran Raichura and Amy Wood from our real estate team takes in the ongoing risks posed by growing distress in the market as well as political uncertainty on both sides of the Atlantic.
Listen to the podcast
领英推荐
Read: EM financial risk – Where and how much?
Our EM Financial Risk Indicators are an interactive dashboard covering sovereign, debt and FX risk across more than 30 of the biggest EMs. In this latest review, we show how risks have shifted in the past three months as Fed easing comes into view and highlight where vulnerabilities are bubbling under.
Watch: Does the Third Plenum signal a big reform push is coming?
The Chinese Communist Party’s Third Plenum meetings have a historical reputation for delivering on reform. Our China team held a briefing shortly after its conclusion last month to answer client questions on whether this latest one fit that bill and on what to expect from the near to long-term economic outlook.
Experience the value that Capital Economics can deliver
With complimentary 2-week access to our subscription services, you can explore comprehensive economic insight, data and charting tools, and attend live virtual events hosted by our economists.