Agricultural protests – a challenge for the government

One of the most significant challenges for the Polish government are the socially supported agricultural protests against the import of products from Ukraine. Protests coincide with growing dislike towards Ukrainians. The pro-EU and pro-Ukrainian government must navigate carefully to solve the problem without alienating its voters.

Poles increasingly dislike Ukrainians in Poland

According to a January study created by the think tank ECFR (European Council on Foreign Relations), Poles, alongside Swedes and Portuguese, are the biggest optimists in Europe (among 12 surveyed countries) when it comes to belief in Ukraine's victory in the war against Russia (17% believe in it) and are among the biggest supporters of helping Ukraine regain its territories (47%, the average is 31%).

However, at the same time, Poles are the most reluctant to the presence of Ukrainians in their own country - as much as 40% of Poles consider Ukrainians a threat "to my country," with the average for the other countries being 23%. The negative attitude towards Ukrainian immigrants most likely results from tiredness of the large number of refugees (about 1.5 million Ukrainians have valid residence permits in Poland).

Is Ukrainian grain really flooding Poland?

The ongoing protest by Polish farmers since February 9, complaining about the influx of Ukrainian grain, currently generates the most emotions in Warsaw and Kyiv. On the Ukrainian side, about 16,000 trucks are in the electronic queue to leave the country, majority towards crossings with Poland. Meanwhile, on the Polish side, the queue at the border crossings with Ukraine consists of about 3,000 trucks.

One of the Polish farmers' demands is to ban the import of Ukrainian agricultural products. The problem is especially grain, which, according to farmers, floods the domestic market, causing price drops and the downfall of farms. However, actual data indicate that the causes of the crisis are more complex than the protesters suggest. According to Monika Pi?tkowska, president of the Grain and Feed Chamber, the reason for the drop in grain prices on the Polish market is not the direct import from Ukraine, but the global situation of flooding with dumped goods from Russia. It destabilizes markets worldwide, pushing out Ukrainian grain, among others.

In recent years, grain prices peaked in May 2022. This was directly related to concerns about grain availability after Russia's attack on Ukraine. It is worth remembering that it was when PiS (Law and Justice, right-wing and national-conservative party) government suggested to farmers not to sell grain, which, from today's perspective, turned out to be disastrous advice. Currently, grain on global markets is twice as cheap as in spring 2022, with a tendency for further reduction. Only since the beginning of 2024 has it become cheaper by another 7%.

Data from the Central Statistical Office indicate that Ukrainian grain does not directly affect the overall market balance. In 2023, Poland imported 1.01 tons of grains from Ukraine, which constituted half of the volume of this category of products. Data also show that Poland has started to significantly restrict the import of grain from abroad, including Ukraine, as early as April 2023. For example, in the last month of the previous year, only 2.6 thousand tons of Ukrainian grain arrived in Poland. There are opinions that Ukrainian grain may reach Poland through a roundabout way. This may be the actual reason as evidenced by the increased amount of goods coming to Poland from Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Lithuania. However, considering the overall decrease in grain import, the claim about Ukraine's huge impact on the Polish market is debatable.

According to Ukrainian customs data, agricultural and food products constitute the most significant part of the trade exchange between Poland and Ukraine and vice versa. In 2023, the value of exports of this category from Ukraine to Poland amounted to 1.7 billion dollars, while imports were 900 million dollars. Ukrainians claim that food and agricultural products are sent abroad mainly by water, through the Black Sea and the Danube. In January 2024, only 5% of Ukrainian food exports reached Germany and other countries via Polish territory.

Farmers block border crossings, cities, and roads

The protest of Polish farmers has already moved from the Polish-Ukrainian border to dozens of other places in the country, with demonstrators blocking roads in smaller and larger towns. On February 25, farmers blocked the Polish-German border crossing on the A2. That same day, near Bydgoszcz, unknown perpetrators dumped even 160 tons of Ukrainian corn on a railway siding. The location of the action (far from the protests) suggests that it could have been a planned provocation - especially since pro-Russian slogans have sometimes appeared at demonstrations, immediately condemned by the organizers of the protests.

On February 27, a ?star march” is taking place in Warsaw, with protesting farmers accompanied by hunters and miners. Farmers want to block the capital to exert pressure on the ruling party to meet their demands and limit the import of agricultural products from Ukraine. Agricultural protests are part of recent demonstrations across Europe, with farmers in other countries protesting against the green transformation. Polish farmers are also calling for a withdraw from the EU's Green Deal. Additionally, on March 1, at the Polish-Ukrainian border, carriers who demonstrated in November 2023 are to repeat the protests. Carriers complain that Ukrainians are pushing them out of the market, and the Ministry of Infrastructure has not responded to their appeals.

A problem for the ruling party

On February 22, Prime Minister Donald Tusk decided that border crossings with Ukraine and the indicated sections of roads and railway tracks will be included in the list of critical infrastructure facilities. Thanks to such decision, military and humanitarian aid will reach Ukraine without delays and Poland will avoid accusations that on the one hand it supports Ukraine and on the other hand it blocks supplies to it. At the same time, it will prevent agricultural protests at the border, which irritates farmers.

Another round of talks between the Minister of Agriculture Czes?aw Siekierski and the organizations of protesting farmers is scheduled for February 29, as previous meetings have not been effective. Siekierski is a politician of PSL (Polish People's Party, part of the Third Way), which wants to regain the support of farmers and rural residents, lost years ago to PiS. However, Siekierski's efforts are not helped by the individual activity of his deputy, Micha? Ko?odziejczak. This politician gained recognition in 2018 when he began criticizing the then PiS government for its actions towards farmers. He is the leader of the small political party Agro-Union, whom Donald Tusk pulled into Koalicja Obywatelska (the Civic Coalition led by Donald Tusk; EPP/RE/Greens/EFA) lists before the elections.

Many farmers critical of the Civic Coalition treated Ko?odziejczak's joining the KO as a betrayal, so Ko?odziejczak is now trying to support the protesting farmers at the border, fighting to maintain his credibility. The deputy minister often navigates, often standing in opposition to his own cabinet (as he himself said: "today I stand in a great split between the Ministry of Agriculture and those who protest") and suggesting further restrictions on the import of Ukrainian products to Poland, which in turn leads to worsening Polish-Ukrainian relations.

The government must meet the expectations of protesting farmers, without straining relations with Kyiv and acting in accordance with Brussels. On March 28, a joint meeting of the Polish and Ukrainian governments is to take place in Warsaw. By that time, a permanent solution to the problem should have been reached.

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