Agile in NASA, DoD, and DOE

There is a common misconception that Agile, as we know it today, started with the Agile Manifesto and is best applicable to self-organizing and self-directed teams. The stalking horse for Agile has always been Waterfall, which is also a misconception.

As far as I can remember, we all thought the waterfalling of a massive project was rather stupid, or at least ignorant of the realities.

— Weinberg G. M. (Project Mercury)

The Origins of Agile Software Development

Here are some Facts on the origins of agile software development long before the 2001 Agile Manifesto, from “A Brief History of Agile Methods ,” Eron Casali

• 1930s?— Walter Shewhart proposes a series of short “plan-do-study-act” (PDSA) cycles.
• 1950s?— The?X-15 hypersonic jet ?applied incremental and iterative development.
• 1958?—?Project Mercury ?(NASA) software development, ran with half-day iterations.
• 1972?— The?USS “Trident” Ohio submarine ?command and control system, developed by IBM FSD. More than 1 million lines of code. Four 6-month iterations.
• 1972?—?Army Site Defence ?missile tracking software. $100 million project, developed by TRW in 5 iterations.
• 1970s?—?Light Airborne Multipurpose System ?(US Navy). 45 one-month iterations.
• ?1972 —?Army Site Defence ?missile tracking software. $100 million project, developed by TRW in 5 iterations.
• 1970s?—?Light Airborne Multipurpose System ?(US Navy). 45 one-month iterations.
• 1977-1980?—?Space Shuttle ?(NASA) avionic software. 17 iterations over 31 months (8 weeks average).
• 1980s?— Artificial intelligence researchers used Lisp machines and evolutionary prototyping.
• 1987?—?Command and Control Processing and Display System Replacement , developed by TRW in 6 time-boxed iterations.
• 1980s?— The DoD was experiencing a project failure rate of 75% in a sample of waterfall projects of about $37 billion overall, where only 2% of them were used without extensive modification. At the end of 1987, the DoD changed its policies to allow iterative development.
• 1994?— The DoD was still a victim of the waterfall mindset, developing too much using Waterfall, so Paul Kaminsky issued a report stating:?“DoD must manage programs using iterative development.”

Some more sources of this history can be found in:

• Starting with Jim Highsmiths new book "Wild West to Agile: Adventures in Software Development Evolution and Revolution," Jim Highsmith, 2023.
• Iterative and Incremental Development: A Brief History , Craig Larman, IEEE Computer, 2003, tracing the progress of Iterative and Incremental development to the 1930s.
• “The programming process,” or, Agile, as IBM invented it in 1950s .
• Designing the Wright Way, Achieving a Goal Incrementally Using Imagination , Iteration & Invention.
• Capabilities-Based Planning (Wright Brothers) - The genius of the Wright Brothers was precisely that they realized they were in an incremental, iterative process and did not expect to build a flying machine at the first attempt.
• The Spiral Method, developed by Barry Boehm, was an Iterative process developed in 1988, describing how a new product occurs in a series of short phases that repeat similar development activities but adding more detail and resolution with each successive iteration [Larman and Basili, 2003]. The short cycles reduce the time from when decisions are made to when the defective ones are detected, thus minimizing the size and cost of rework.

And just to put the Waterfall Stalking Horse to bed, read Managing the Development of Large Software Systems , Dr. Wiston W. Royce, WESTCON, IEEE 1970, pp. 328-339 1970, with a summary in The Waterfall Myth .

Agile in the Acquisition of Software Intensive System of Systems (SISoS)

Agile is an approach to software development in which software is built incrementally and is continuously evaluated on functionality, quality, and customer satisfaction. By engaging customers early and reviewing software regularly, Agile can reduce the risks of funding a program that fails or produces outdated technology.

Agile has the potential to save the government billions of dollars by delivering services more efficiently and effectively. However, the transition to Agile can be costly and time-consuming. We discuss the policy context and considerations to overcome challenges when implementing Agile for federal IT programs.

References for Agile Development

As early as the 1950s, IBM programmers were working on software for submarine control systems and missile tracking systems, which were so complex that they could not be conceived and built in one go. Programmers had to evolve them, like cities, starting with a simple working system that users could test and then gradually adding more function and detail in iterative cycles that took one to six months to complete. In a 1969 IBM internal report called “The Programming Process,” — Dave Gray (2011) stated that Agile development

• “The programming process,” or, Agile, as IBM invented it in the 1950s.
• Science & Tech Report Spotlight: Agile Software Development , September 2020.
• Agile Assessment Guide: Best Practices for Agile Adoption and Implementation , GAO-20-590G.
• Agile Software Development: DHS Has Made Significant Progress in Implementing Leading Practices, but Needs to Take Additional Actions , GAO-20-213.
• Software Development: Effective Practices and Federal Challenges in Applying Agile Methods , GAO-12-681.
• DOD Software Acquisition: Status of and Challenges Related to Reform Efforts , GAO-21-105298.
• Agile Methods: Selected DoD Management and Acquisition Concerns
• Booklet 1: Agile Development and DoD Acquisitions
• Booklet 2: Agile Culture in the DoD
• Booklet 3: Management and Contracting Practices for Agile Programs
• Booklet 4: Agile Acquisition and Milestone Reviews
• Booklet 5: Estimating in Agile Acquisition
• Booklet 6: Adopting Agile in DoD IT Acquisitions
• DIB Guide: Detecting Agile BS
• Defense Agile Acquisition Guide
• Handbook for Implementing Agile in Department of Defense Information Technology Acquisition
• DoD Acquisitions Reform: Embracing and Implementing Agile ?
• Agile: From Software to Mission System
• Agile Methodology: Introduction to Agile Methodology , NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.
• The Myth of the Waterfall SDLC , a wiki post for any of those using “waterfall” as the enemy of agile, with 41 references missing from the typical agilest assessment of Waterfall.
• Why Waterfall was a Big Misundersyading from the Begining - Reading the Orginal Paper , March 2, 2012.
• Toxic Concepts in Systems Analysis and Design: The Systems Development Lifecycle , Paul Ralph, Lancaster University, Proceedings of the 9th AIS SIGSAND Symposium, 2010.
• Information Technology Project Execution Model Guide , DOE G 415.1-1
• Information Technology Project Execution Model Guide for Small and Medium Projects , DOE G 415.1-2

Agile Training Materials in Federal, State, and Commercial Acquisition

• Agile at Scale for Software Intensive System of Systems - Applying Agile Software Development on Software Intensive System of Systems Subject to FAR 34.2 and DFARS 234.2
• Agile Lifecycle - Product Roadmap, release Plan, Roles and Responsibilities, Epics, Features, Stories, and Tasks
• Is Agile Project Management Actually Systems Engineering?
• Agile Program Management Process Flow
• Agile Software Development for Government Software Intensive System of Systems
• Program Management Office, Agile Software Development, Lean / 6?? - All Living in Harmony
• Agile Program Management Process

Earned Value Management and Agile = A Match Made In Heaven

Earned Value Management and Agile Software Development go hand in hand to answer the question What Does Done Look Like, and What are the units of measure for the Agile Definition of Done? The answer is the Physical Percent Complete of the Capabilities, Features, and Stories in units of measure meaningful to the Decision Makers.

Story Points are NOT measures of Physical Percent Complete. They are Ordinal measures of the relative effort between one or more items. Non-DeMinimis projects have cardinal performance measures since those paying have a fiduciary need to know when you’ll be done producing the Capabilities needed to accomplish the mission or fulfill the strategy and how much that will cost.

• Agile Project Management: Steering from the Edge
• Applying Project Control Processes to Agile Development Projects
• Agile Transformation of Aerospace Business From Traditional Stage-Gate to Agile for Product and Service Delivery
• Integration of Program Performance Management with Agile Software Development ?- Starting with the Engineering Estimate, define deliverables, their production plan, deployment, any variance of effort and cost, and the corrective actions to keep the planned work on plan.
• Agilely Managing Projects in the Federal Environment ?- Applying the Immutable Principles and Process of Project Management in Traditional & Agile Domains to Increase the Probability of Project Success (PoPS)
• Agiley Managing Requirements ?- a simple guide to requirements management in an agile organization
• Agiley Managing Requirements ?- a simple guide to requirements management in an agile organization.
• Agile Project Management Methods , in?The Story of Managing Projects: A Global, Cross-Disciplinary Collection of Perspectives, Dr. E. G. Carayannis and Dr. Y. H. Kwak, editors, Greenwood Press / Quorum Books, 2002.
• Scrum Master Processes ?- 8 Ceremonies, sample business rhythm, and 41 Tasks of the Scrum Master.
• Estimating and Managing Agile Projects at DHS ?- Thomas J. Coonce and Glen Alleman, DHS Cost Analysis Stakeholder Working Group.
• Software for Our Minds ?- Patterns and Anti-Patterns for creating and maintaining a shared vision.
• Post-Normal Science and eXtreme Programming ?- How can we understand the impacts of eXtreme Programming and other Agile methods without scientific data?
• WSRI Agile Program Management Process ?- Applying agile principles, practices, and processes to the project, building the release plan for each program event in the Integrated Master Plan and deliverables for that review.
• ??Paradigm of Agile Project Management ?- when we say?Agile?without a Domain and Context, how can it have any meaning?
• Effective Use of Kanban in a Nutshell ?- Principles, Practices, and Processes that Increase the Probability of Project Success.
• Lightweight Processes - An Overview of Lightweight Development Processes and Selecting One For Your Projects ?- Lightweight processes are beginning to replace more formal methods.
• Agile Project Management and “Normative” Paradigms
• Agile Project Management Methods Meet Earned Value ?- Glen Alleman and Michael Henderson,?Agile Development?June 25-28, 2003.
• ??A Workshop for Product Owners, Scrum Masters, and Team Members for Improving Team Performance ?- Scrum Masters and Product Owners are critical to the success of agile projects.
• Agile Program Management - Moving from Principles to Practice ?- Agile program management is the?glue?between IT strategy and delivery of business value.
• Agile Software Development for Government Software Intensive Systems of Systems (SiS) - If we’re looking to increase the probability of success for Software Intensive System of Systems, look to where that effort can produce the highest return for the investment, Boulder Agile Meetup, 27 July 2016.
• Increasing the Probability of Success for Complex System of Systems by Integrating Systems Engineering, Agile Project Management with Program Performance Management ?- Managing Complex Systems of Systems Subject to FAR 34.2 and DFARS 234.2 by Applying Agile at Scale.
• Product & Process Development Kaizen for Software Development, Project, and Program Management , LPPDR, Denver Colorado, April 21-23, 2008.
• When is Light Right? , XP Denver, April 23rd, 2001.
• Making Agile Development Work in a Government Contracting Environment - Measuring Velocity with Earned Value ?- Glen Alleman, Michael Henderson, CH2M Hill, and Ray Seggelke, Envision Technology, Agile Development, June 25-28, Salt Lake City, Utah.
• Setting up the Agile Program for EVM Compliant Validation, using the Principles of Agile Systems Engineering , EVM World 2016.
• You Don’t Need Agile to Avoid the Seven Deadly Sins of Project Management ?- Bad Project Management is Just That?Bad Project Management.
• Blending Agile Development Methods with CMMI?
• CMMI and Agile, Joining Principles with Practice to Produce a Single Integrated System , PMI Professional Development Day, Grapevine, TX, June 23, 2011.
• Making Agile Development Work in a Government Contracting Environment - Measuring Velocity with Earned Value ?- Glen Alleman, Michael Henderson, CH2M Hill, and Ray Seggelke, Envision Technology, Agile Development, June 25-28, Salt Lake City, Utah.
• Setting up the Agile Program for EVM Compliant Validation, using the Principles of Agile Systems Engineering , EVM World 2016.
• How Should We Estimate Agile Projects and Measure Progress to Plan , Thomas Coonce, and Glen Alleman, Naval Center for Cost Analysis, Software and IT Cost Analysis Solutions, August 22, 2017.
• Risk Management and Agile Software Development ?- handling aleatory and epistemic uncertainties.
• Integrating Agile with EVM , Glen Alleman.
• Setting up the Agile Program for EVM Compliant Validation, using the Principles of Agile Systems Engineering , Dr. AnnNarie Oien and Glen Alleman, EVM World 2016.
• Calculating Physical Percent Complete for the PMB Using an Agile Tool , Glen Alleman, EVM World 2017.
• CPM Series on Earned Value and Agile - Connecting EVM and Agile , Glen Alleman, PM World Journal, Vol. IV, Issues VIII, August 2015.
• Integrating Agile Software Development with Earned Value Management , Deltek Insight, 2015.
• Earned Value + Agile = Success , Northrop Grumman, C4ISR Systems.
• Earned Value + Agile = Success ?- Increasing the Probability of Program Success requires connecting the dots between EV and Agile development to produce a measure of Physical Percent Complete, PMI Professional Development Day, June 23, 2011.
• Earned Value + Agile = A Match Made in Heaven? ?The Nexus of Agile Software Development, Institute for Defense Analysis, Feb 19-20, 2015.
• Successfully Integrating Agile with Earned Value Management ?- NDIA PMSC Quarterly Meeting, February 1-2, 2011.